Malaysia's Cases going down to below R1
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia is seeing a dip in the Covid-19 infectivity rate. Though this is encouraging, health experts caution the public against taking their foot off the pedal.
Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman said the downward trend proved that the preventive measures put in place were effective.
“Our steps to control the outbreak are on track but we have to continue this effort to reduce it further.
“It is a good sign, but if we loosen our grip, the number of infections is set to potentially increase, ” she said.
Dr Malina added that while the country’s R value was showing a decline, the aim would be to push it down to near zero.
The R value, or reproduction number, refers to the infectivity rate of a virus at a particular point in time.
It represents the average number of people an infected person could spread the disease to, so an R value of lower than 1 means that the number of people being infected on average will be fewer over time.
Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the R value had dropped to below 1 during the first week of the lockdown.
Yesterday, it was recorded at 0.99.
On May 31, before the two-week lockdown was implemented, it was 1.09.
Previously, the R value was also recorded at levels of 1.21 and 1.16, on May 23 and May 29, respectively.
International Islamic University Malaysia epidemiologist Prof Dr Jamalludin Ab Rahman said while the R value did show a positive impact, it was not enough.
Malaysia was not out of the woods yet, he said.
“R alone is not enough. For example, we should look at fatality rates, or the number of new clusters.
“Should we be happy with an R value that is lower than 1?
“Yes. But is the effort enough? Not yet, ” Dr Jamalludin pointed out.
“The R value has to be persistently low. Until when? There is no precise answer.”
He said that while the MCO and lockdown had reduced mobility among the general population considerably, Malaysia was still seeing transmissions in factories.
“The government really needs to settle this source of infections.
“The movement control order can solve sporadic cases in the community but if factories are still operating and close contact in crowded spaces is not being controlled, we will continue to have cases from factories, ” he added.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Azmi Mohd Tamil agreed.
He said that unless a relational database – where all secondary cases were mapped out to each primary case – it would not be possible to get the accurate average number of secondary persons infected from a single primary case.
“What we have is only an estimate based on a mathematical model.
“As long as we have cases in the community, the outbreak will continue – until the majority of the population is immune to the disease.”
At present, Dr Azmi said, “all possible cases of Covid-19 need to be screened, identified and isolated from the susceptible population”.
He reckoned that the lockdown should not be lifted on June 14.
“The number of cases does not support that – even though the R value is currently below 1, ” he added
Top priority – keep the kids safe
PETALING JAYA: Spending almost two weeks in hospital after testing positive for Covid-19 last year is something housewife Sharifah Farah Ayuni Syed Rosli does not want to go through again – ever.Now, she and her husband have only one important thing in mind – to look after and protect their three children from being infected.
“That harrowing experience was enough to jolt us. We hope neither we nor our kids get infected by the disease,” said the 30-year-old from Kota Baru.
Recalling her stay, Sharifah said she spent about 13 days in hospital with her businessman husband Mohd Azlee Che Mohd Zaid and their son, Mir Ali Zafar, who was three months old at the time.
While she was well cared for by medical workers there, the housewife said she was mentally exhausted thinking about her two other children, who tested negative and placed in their grandmother’s care.
“Nowadays, I get a little anxious if I feel unwell, worrying if I contracted Covid-19 again.
“Thankfully, we are all healthy. We understand that we must stay at home to guard against getting infected,” she said.
Recently, Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said there was a rise in infections among younger children, some of whom had to be treated at intensive care units.
Sharifah said she and her husband tried to set good examples for their three children, now aged six, four and one-and-a-half, and remind them to wash their hands and wear their face masks properly.
She said her children understood that they could not go for outings because of the pandemic.
“We are grateful that they are obedient and follow our advice.
“There are times when they get upset and sulk, as children sometimes do, but they listen,” Sharifah said.
Kiranjit Muniandy wonders if she is doing enough to protect her 19-month-old daughter from getting infected.
“The number of kids getting infected of late is alarming. It’s tougher now because she is at that age where she just wants to touch everything,” she said.
Kiranjit, 39, was also worried about the high number of new cases daily.
“My husband and I have decided not to go out and stay at home.
“We have also stopped receiving visitors. We take care of our daughter while we work from home.
“Thankfully, we work on shifts. My husband works in the day while I work at night so we take turns,” said the banking executive.
Kiranjit said she would take every precaution to protect her family from being infected and hoped that the pandemic would end soon as she misses her family in Sabah.
“My daughter has not met her grandparents for over a year,” she said.
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