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Showing posts with label Covid-19 infectivity rate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Covid-19 infectivity rate. Show all posts

Friday, June 25, 2021

Everyone must do their part to lowering Covid-19 infectivity rate


PETALING JAYA: The nation’s Covid-19 infectivity rate will keep rising due to increasing active clusters and sporadic cases in the community unless people are vaccinated quickly and widely, say health experts.

Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman said the rise in the infectivity rate, or the R-naught (R0) value, was expected as there were about 850 active clusters nationwide as of Monday.

She said active clusters had been increasing since April 4, when 359 were recorded. On May 5, the number of active clusters rose to 411 and on June 6, it climbed to 713.

“Even though we hope cases can be reduced through contact tracing and screening, some cases from ongoing clusters may have been left unchecked or escaped the screening. This subsequently introduces the infection to other settings.

“That is why a self-lockdown and adherence to the standard operating procedure (SOP) are very important to curb the spread,” she said when contacted yesterday.

To bring down the R0, Dr Malina said cooperation from the community was vital.

“Suppression of the infection is no longer on the government’s shoulders alone. It has to be done fully by the community.

“We hope that by next week, the number of fully vaccinated persons in the community can reach up to 10% (of the population) and that people will adhere to the SOP.

“Without these measures, the R0 projection may be increased,” she said, adding that this would contribute to more Covid-19 cases.

“Those who have been vaccinated need to continue adhering to the SOP. As for those who are entitled

to receive the vaccine early, please contact the nearest healthcare facility directly,” she said.

Dr Malina suggested that the government allow the elderly and people with disabilities to get their vaccine via walk-ins and for those in the economic sectors to be vaccinated together with their families.

Since the start of the ongoing lockdown on June 1, the R0 levels nationwide had dropped from a high of 1.07 to a low of 0.90 on June 12.But from June 13 to June 20, the R0 gradually rose from 0.91 to 0.97.

The R0 of a virus is a measure of its transmission or number of new infections generated by each case.

For example, an R0 rate of 1.0 means that on average, each infected person will infect one other person they come into contact with.

On June 20, the highest R0 recorded was in Negri Sembilan at 1.05. This was followed by Johor (1.0), Sarawak (0.99), Labuan (0.98), Kuala Lumpur (0.96), Sabah (0.96), Selangor (0.93), Melaka (0.91), Kedah (0.90) and Perak (0.90). The remaining states recorded an R0 of less than 0.90 each.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia health economics, hospital and health management Prof Dr Sharifa Ezat Wan Puteh said she believed the R0 would keep rising unless the government could vaccinate the population “quickly and widely enough”.She added that Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Johor had contributed to the increasing infectivity rate.

“The projected average R0 next week may increase to more than 1.0 unless we can curtail sporadic cases through increased screening, detection and isolation while maintaining a high inoculation rate in red zones in these states,” she said.

She added that the movement of people was also a contributing factor, as evidenced by the high number of private sector employees who were allowed to go to their workplace despite the lockdown.

She said the inability to tackle the high number of sporadic cases in the community had also fuelled the R0, adding that those cases were usually asymptomatic and could contribute to the high number of daily “brought in dead” cases nationwide.

“Since many people have not been vaccinated or screened for Covid-19, they could be moving around and spreading the virus,”

she said.She advised people from hard-hit areas where sporadic cases had been reported to go for screening.She added that the fee for Covid-19 tests should also be kept low to enable people to access the service.

The government, Prof Sharifa Ezat said, should ease access to vaccines by having more outreach programmes, drive-through vaccinations and vaccine literacy talks.

International Islamic University Malaysia epidemiologist Prof Dr Jamalludin Ab Rahman had also observed the R0 increase early on.“Since the R0 values are compared to the previous values, the day when we observe a significant dip may cause the subsequent daily R0 to be higher,” he said.

Prof Jamalludin said the rising R0 may prove to be of concern, but this could only be determined if testing rates remained constant since the number of tests could affect the reporting of new cases.

He was also concerned about sporadic cases in the community.

“If the investigation of each positive case is not done properly, we might miss contacts which would spread further to others,” he added.

He said to some degree, the lockdown and vaccination programme had been able to bring down the transmission rates.

But he said the authorities needed to identify the source of Covid-19 cases, which mainly come from workplace clusters currently, and potentially also community clusters.

“We also need to improve the vaccine rollout. We need to secure the supply and quickly vaccinate the population. There is no magic or faster way out,” he added.

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Thursday, June 24, 2021

Everyone must do their part to lowering Covid-19 infectivity rate


PETALING JAYA: The nation’s Covid-19 infectivity rate will keep rising due to increasing active clusters and sporadic cases in the community unless people are vaccinated quickly and widely, say health experts.

Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman said the rise in the infectivity rate, or the R-naught (R0) value, was expected as there were about 850 active clusters nationwide as of Monday.

She said active clusters had been increasing since April 4, when 359 were recorded. On May 5, the number of active clusters rose to 411 and on June 6, it climbed to 713.

“Even though we hope cases can be reduced through contact tracing and screening, some cases from ongoing clusters may have been left unchecked or escaped the screening. This subsequently introduces the infection to other settings.

“That is why a self-lockdown and adherence to the standard operating procedure (SOP) are very important to curb the spread,” she said when contacted yesterday.

To bring down the R0, Dr Malina said cooperation from the community was vital.

“Suppression of the infection is no longer on the government’s shoulders alone. It has to be done fully by the community.

“We hope that by next week, the number of fully vaccinated persons in the community can reach up to 10% (of the population) and that people will adhere to the SOP.

“Without these measures, the R0 projection may be increased,” she said, adding that this would contribute to more Covid-19 cases.

“Those who have been vaccinated need to continue adhering to the SOP. As for those who are entitled

to receive the vaccine early, please contact the nearest healthcare facility directly,” she said.

Dr Malina suggested that the government allow the elderly and people with disabilities to get their vaccine via walk-ins and for those in the economic sectors to be vaccinated together with their families.

Since the start of the ongoing lockdown on June 1, the R0 levels nationwide had dropped from a high of 1.07 to a low of 0.90 on June 12.But from June 13 to June 20, the R0 gradually rose from 0.91 to 0.97.

The R0 of a virus is a measure of its transmission or number of new infections generated by each case.

For example, an R0 rate of 1.0 means that on average, each infected person will infect one other person they come into contact with.

On June 20, the highest R0 recorded was in Negri Sembilan at 1.05. This was followed by Johor (1.0), Sarawak (0.99), Labuan (0.98), Kuala Lumpur (0.96), Sabah (0.96), Selangor (0.93), Melaka (0.91), Kedah (0.90) and Perak (0.90). The remaining states recorded an R0 of less than 0.90 each.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia health economics, hospital and health management Prof Dr Sharifa Ezat Wan Puteh said she believed the R0 would keep rising unless the government could vaccinate the population “quickly and widely enough”.She added that Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Johor had contributed to the increasing infectivity rate.

“The projected average R0 next week may increase to more than 1.0 unless we can curtail sporadic cases through increased screening, detection and isolation while maintaining a high inoculation rate in red zones in these states,” she said.

She added that the movement of people was also a contributing factor, as evidenced by the high number of private sector employees who were allowed to go to their workplace despite the lockdown.

She said the inability to tackle the high number of sporadic cases in the community had also fuelled the R0, adding that those cases were usually asymptomatic and could contribute to the high number of daily “brought in dead” cases nationwide.

“Since many people have not been vaccinated or screened for Covid-19, they could be moving around and spreading the virus,”

she said.She advised people from hard-hit areas where sporadic cases had been reported to go for screening.She added that the fee for Covid-19 tests should also be kept low to enable people to access the service.

The government, Prof Sharifa Ezat said, should ease access to vaccines by having more outreach programmes, drive-through vaccinations and vaccine literacy talks.

International Islamic University Malaysia epidemiologist Prof Dr Jamalludin Ab Rahman had also observed the R0 increase early on.“Since the R0 values are compared to the previous values, the day when we observe a significant dip may cause the subsequent daily R0 to be higher,” he said.

Prof Jamalludin said the rising R0 may prove to be of concern, but this could only be determined if testing rates remained constant since the number of tests could affect the reporting of new cases.

He was also concerned about sporadic cases in the community.

“If the investigation of each positive case is not done properly, we might miss contacts which would spread further to others,” he added.

He said to some degree, the lockdown and vaccination programme had been able to bring down the transmission rates.

But he said the authorities needed to identify the source of Covid-19 cases, which mainly come from workplace clusters currently, and potentially also community clusters.

“We also need to improve the vaccine rollout. We need to secure the supply and quickly vaccinate the population. There is no magic or faster way out,” he added.

Source link  

Related:

 

Covid-19: 5,841 new cases, Selangor still top with 2,072

 

Get vaccinated if you like to travel | The Star


 Rindu Melancong Jom Vaksin Dulu!

( Miss Traveling Let's Get Vaccinated First!)


Related posts:

 

 Govt is also working on additional assistance under National Recovery Plan PETALING JAYA: The government has close to RM30bil left to be...
 
    KUALA LUMPUR, May 29 — The Ministry of Health (MoH) announced that there were a total of 9,020 new cases reported up till 12pm today, pus
 

Covid-19 Cases going down; top priority – keep the kids safe

 Malaysia's Cases going down to below R1  

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

Covid-19 Cases going down; top priority – keep the kids safe

 Malaysia's Cases going down to below R1  

 

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia is seeing a dip in the Covid-19 infectivity rate. Though this is encouraging, health experts caution the public against taking their foot off the pedal.

Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman said the downward trend proved that the preventive measures put in place were effective.

“Our steps to control the outbreak are on track but we have to continue this effort to reduce it further.

“It is a good sign, but if we loosen our grip, the number of infections is set to potentially increase, ” she said.

Dr Malina added that while the country’s R value was showing a decline, the aim would be to push it down to near zero.

The R value, or reproduction number, refers to the infectivity rate of a virus at a particular point in time.

It represents the average number of people an infected person could spread the disease to, so an R value of lower than 1 means that the number of people being infected on average will be fewer over time.

Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the R value had dropped to below 1 during the first week of the lockdown.

Yesterday, it was recorded at 0.99.

On May 31, before the two-week lockdown was implemented, it was 1.09.

Previously, the R value was also recorded at levels of 1.21 and 1.16, on May 23 and May 29, respectively.

International Islamic University Malaysia epidemiologist Prof Dr Jamalludin Ab Rahman said while the R value did show a positive impact, it was not enough.

Malaysia was not out of the woods yet, he said.

“R alone is not enough. For example, we should look at fatality rates, or the number of new clusters.

“Should we be happy with an R value that is lower than 1?

“Yes. But is the effort enough? Not yet, ” Dr Jamalludin pointed out.

“The R value has to be persistently low. Until when? There is no precise answer.”

He said that while the MCO and lockdown had reduced mobility among the general population considerably, Malaysia was still seeing transmissions in factories.

“The government really needs to settle this source of infections.

“The movement control order can solve sporadic cases in the community but if factories are still operating and close contact in crowded spaces is not being controlled, we will continue to have cases from factories, ” he added.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Azmi Mohd Tamil agreed.

He said that unless a relational database – where all secondary cases were mapped out to each primary case – it would not be possible to get the accurate average number of secondary persons infected from a single primary case.

“What we have is only an estimate based on a mathematical model.

“As long as we have cases in the community, the outbreak will continue – until the majority of the population is immune to the disease.”

At present, Dr Azmi said, “all possible cases of Covid-19 need to be screened, identified and isolated from the susceptible population”.

He reckoned that the lockdown should not be lifted on June 14.

“The number of cases does not support that – even though the R value is currently below 1, ” he added

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Top priority – keep the kids safe



PETALING JAYA: Spending almost two weeks in hospital after testing positive for Covid-19 last year is something housewife Sharifah Farah Ayuni Syed Rosli does not want to go through again – ever.Now, she and her husband have only one important thing in mind – to look after and protect their three children from being infected.

“That harrowing experience was enough to jolt us. We hope neither we nor our kids get infected by the disease,” said the 30-year-old from Kota Baru.

Recalling her stay, Sharifah said she spent about 13 days in hospital with her businessman husband Mohd Azlee Che Mohd Zaid and their son, Mir Ali Zafar, who was three months old at the time.

While she was well cared for by medical workers there, the housewife said she was mentally exhausted thinking about her two other children, who tested negative and placed in their grandmother’s care.

“Nowadays, I get a little anxious if I feel unwell, worrying if I contracted Covid-19 again.

“Thankfully, we are all healthy. We understand that we must stay at home to guard against getting infected,” she said.

Recently, Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said there was a rise in infections among younger children, some of whom had to be treated at intensive care units.

Sharifah said she and her husband tried to set good examples for their three children, now aged six, four and one-and-a-half, and remind them to wash their hands and wear their face masks properly.

She said her children understood that they could not go for outings because of the pandemic.

“We are grateful that they are obedient and follow our advice.

“There are times when they get upset and sulk, as children sometimes do, but they listen,” Sharifah said.

Kiranjit Muniandy wonders if she is doing enough to protect her 19-month-old daughter from getting infected.

“The number of kids getting infected of late is alarming. It’s tougher now because she is at that age where she just wants to touch everything,” she said.

Kiranjit, 39, was also worried about the high number of new cases daily.

“My husband and I have decided not to go out and stay at home.

“We have also stopped receiving visitors. We take care of our daughter while we work from home.

“Thankfully, we work on shifts. My husband works in the day while I work at night so we take turns,” said the banking executive.

Kiranjit said she would take every precaution to protect her family from being infected and hoped that the pandemic would end soon as she misses her family in Sabah.

“My daughter has not met her grandparents for over a year,” she said.

Faster herd immunity if kids are jabbed too - PressReader

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