Can China-US Zurich meeting bear fruits?

 

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 China does not make principled concessions and insists on doing its own thing well. This fundamental strategy is getting results: Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin #HuSays

 

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'Constructive' China-U.S. Talks: An Icebreaker?

  
Yang Jiechi (1st right), a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, met Wednesday with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan (1st left) (Photo: Xinhua)

On Wednesday, Yang Jiechi, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, met with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan for six hours of talks in Zurich, Switzerland. The press releases issued by both sides were more positive in their respective contexts. This suggests that the meeting was productive.

Both sides have talked about implementing the spirit of the phone call between Chinese and US heads of state on September 10. There were no negative descriptions and accusations against the other side in both public press releases. There was only more subtle language about the differences between the two countries. US officials told the media that the two sides also discussed the possibility of a video meeting between the two heads of state by the end of this year.

However, if we compare the press releases from both sides, there are serious differences between the two countries that can still been seen. Yang stressed that China opposes defining China-US relations as "competitive." He advocated that the US side should have a deep understanding of the mutually beneficial nature of the bilateral relations and correctly understand China's domestic and foreign policies and strategic intentions. However, Washington's press release mentioned "competition" twice in the US' usual context. It has also used the wording of "responsible competition" as in the US' several recent statements and emphasized managing risks.

It is obvious that Washington's strategic definition of the China-US relations and the basic thinking behind their policy toward Beijing remains the same. The State Department's press release emphasized that it will continue to invest in US national strength and work closely with allies and partners. This is the same as the US' oft-repeated theme of speaking "from a position of strength" and strengthening the alliance system to compete fiercely with China.

However, the US side has recently talked less about "confrontation" along with competition and cooperation. It has been repeatedly emphasizing that it does not want to see a "new Cold War." It wants to prevent competition from escalating into confrontation. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai also said that the US does not pursue decoupling, but is willing to a "recoupling" on a new basis. In addition, it is also obvious that the US side's attitude toward China has been adjusted. Examples include the release of Meng Wanzhou and Washington getting ready to restart the China-US economic and trade consultations and other actions and positive statements.

China's fundamental strategy of not making principled concessions and insisting on doing its own thing is taking effect. The US side always says it wants to speak "from a position of strength," but its strength is far from sufficient to achieve its ambitions to contain China's development. The US has been hit hard by the COVID-19 epidemic, which has killed more than 700,000 people so far. It has not only plunged the US economy deeper into abusing stimulus mode, but also exposed the fundamental weaknesses of the US system and weakened its global influence.

By strengthening its alliance system, the US has mainly roped in Australia and Japan. In the past, Canberra and Tokyo used Washington's power to intimidate other countries. But now, it seems to be the other way around. The US' comprehensive offensive against China has quickly shown signs of fatigue.

To some extent, the reality has taught Washington a crisp lesson. The US has to alleviate some conflicts with China which are out of its ability. It also adjusted the pace of its China policy. At a time when anti-China public opinion is rampant in the US, the room for such adjustments is limited. Public announcements will be particularly restricted by domestic US politics. Therefore, Chinese people should not have illusions about the Biden administration's change of course. We should use our own solid actions to increase our firm leading power in China-US relations.

It must be noted that we have strong endurance in sticking to the current path toward the US. The US strategy toward China is very imaginative, but it cannot be supported by its ability. While the US is repeatedly discussing infrastructure construction, China's infrastructure construction has taken another step forward. The US' alliance system is becoming more and more complicated. For example, Paris, its traditional ally, is angry with Washington. Berlin is still going against Washington's will on the Nord Stream 2 deal. The US' failure in Afghanistan has made all of Washington's allies bitterly disappointed.

The US cannot achieve these deeds effortlessly. However, China can accumulate strategic initiatives by doing its own things well. China follows a pragmatic and reliable path.

We hope to see China-US relations find constructive changes. However, there are still many obstacles for the two sides to move closer in terms of their perceptions and expectations toward each other. The US has a deep hegemonic mindset, and it won't engage in reflection unless it fails. China must, by doing its own things well, make the US realize that ultimately it is impossible to contain China's development. By sticking to this approach and direction, US' China policy will gradually adapt to reality. The US will seek maximum interests by exploring coexistence and cooperation with China

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US can't accept painful fact that China is now its equal: Martin Jacques

Chinese diplomats state China's position in the opening remarks of the China-US high-level strategic dialogue in Anchorage, Alaska, on Thursday local time. Photo: cnsphoto

 

We learnt two things from the China-US high-level dialogue held in Alaska last week.

The first was from the session at the beginning when the media were present. This would normally be conducted in a polite and somewhat anodyne fashion dressed up in diplomatic nicety. It could not have been more different. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan commenced the proceedings and made some sharp criticisms of China. In response, Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Leading Group for Foreign Affairs, gave a bravura performance. Far from pulling his punches or couching his words in diplomatic language, he let his American counterparts have it with both barrels, challenging not just the US position but its very legitimacy. And all this before the world's media.

Let me quote some of his choice barbs: "When I entered this room, I should have reminded the US side of paying attention to its tone." "The US is not qualified to say it wants to speak to China from a position of strength." "China and the international community…uphold the UN-centered international order…not what is advocated by a small number of countries of the so-called 'rules-based' international order." "On human rights, we do hope the US will do better on human rights. The challenges facing the US in human rights are deep-seated. They did not just emerge over the past four years, such as Black Lives Matter." "On cyber-attacks, let me say that whether it's the ability to launch cyber-attacks or the technologies that could be deployed, the US is the champion." "The US does not represent international opinion and neither does the Western world."

While delivering these shots, Yang spoke with passion but never raised his voice. There were no cheap jibes. He occupied the high ground in the argument and left the Americans bewildered and belittled.

This is not normally the Chinese manner on such occasions. It is a sign that something has changed. There is a new sense of confidence on the part of the Chinese. That they are - or can - win the argument. That they are at least the equals of America. That they speak from a position of strength and America from a position of weakness. That history is on their side. It feels like the diplomatic equivalent of moving from "keeping a low profile" to "striving for achievement," or from being a relative spectator in the global system to becoming a major architect. The Americans have hitherto always thought of themselves as running the show; the shock visible in the body language of Blinken and Sullivan was the realization, conscious or unconscious, that this was no longer the case. The same was apparent in the Western media. The BBC, for example, invariably critical of China, reported it with an unfamiliar neutrality, as if stunned by the role reversal.

The second thing we found out from the dialogue (albeit already evident from the signals emanating from the White House), was that there will be no return to the status quo ante. That Biden is desperately anxious to appear as hostile to China as Trump was before him. The underlying forces at work here are very deep. America is in the process of coming to the painful realization that China is now its equal. But it cannot bring itself to accept or acquiesce in what is already an historical reality. That is why there can be no return to 1972 (Mao-Nixon Accord) or 1979 (US recognition of China). The relationship that prevailed then between China and the US was entirely different: the US was the giant, China a minnow. That was the basis of the US-China relationship for 45 years from 1972 until Trump torpedoed it in 2017, even though, of course, by the end China's rise was already undermining America's assumptions about the relationship. The realization that China was on the verge of overtaking the US economically, that China enjoyed a huge global presence, that it was already in effect its equal, came as an enormous shock to the American psyche and body politic.

Addicted to its hubris, it failed to see the blatantly obvious coming. As there can be no return to the past, the China-US relationship, so crucial to both and to the whole world, will have to be rethought on an entirely new basis, namely one of mutuality and equality. The problem is that the US is very far from thinking like this. How America needs for these times a giant like Henry Kissinger: someone who understands - and admires - China in a very profound way.

For the time being we must think in more mundane ways. Cooperation will be confined to the foothills, it will be a case of issue by issue, a bit here and a bit there, rebuilding contacts and communications between the two countries, ending as best can be done the toxicity and wanton destruction wrought by Donald Trump. Even this will not be easy but it ought, at a pinch, to be possible, with climate change offering the most important challenge and opportunity. For without cooperation between the two countries, climate change will imperil the very future of the planet and humanity.

The author was until recently a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University. He is a Visiting Professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a Senior Fellow at the China Institute, Fudan University. Follow him on twitter @martjacques. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

 

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STILL AMRICA FIRST IN TRADE

The Black Hand - ETIM and Terrorism in Xinjiang, American human rights, freedom and democracy condemned

China’s Most Direct Security Threat

 Chaos was rampant in China’s westernmost region. Explosions and other violence struck terror in the hearts of residents in the country's Xinjiang region. The victims and survivors should be remembered in China's current fight against terrorism.

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The East Turkistan Islamic Movement, or ETIM, is designated as a terrorist organization by the UN. For decades, the group which has close links with international terrorist organizations perpetrated countless terrorist attacks aiming to separate the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from China.

The movement has attempted to recruit people on a massive scale, spreading a radical ideology that continues to cause chaos in many countries around the world.

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The Long-Term Fight

Terrorist acts in modern China are just using religious extremism as a banner to separate Xinjiang from the country. ETIM, one of the most wanted terrorist organizations in the country, has been creating strife to divide ethnic groups and religions in the region for decades. Many of its members were trained outside the country in extremist thought, returning to the country to apply their radical ideologies.

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The human cost

An SUV slammed through the barricades in Beijing's iconic Tian'anmen Square in 2013, killing two and wounding 40. The three attackers had sworn the so-called jihad on the hills of Urumqi, a bustling city in China's Xinjiang region. 

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High ranking Chinese official calls U.S.' Pompeo, tells U.S. to stop interfering

Director of the Office of Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, Yang Jiechi, has spoken on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Yang said that the recent U.S. passage of legislation on Hong Kong and Xinjiang was interference in China's domestic affairs.

He said that it violated international law and the basic principles of international affairs. Yang also said that Beijing will resolutely protect its territorial sovereignty and urged the U.S. to stop interfering in China's internal affairs.

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Senior Chinese official condemns US interference in China's internal affairs 

 

BEIJING: Yang Jiechi (pic), member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, held a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday (Dec 8).

Noting that the United States had allowed the so-called "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019" to become law and the House of Representatives of the US Congress to pass the so-called "Uygur Human Rights Policy Act of 2019," Yang said US officials have repeatedly made statements that distort and attack China's political system and internal and external policies.

Those are gross interference in China's internal affairs and a serious violation of the international law, the basic norms of international relations and the will of the Chinese and US people as well as the international community, Yang said.

"China firmly opposes and strongly condemns these acts," he said.

Over the past 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China, great achievements which have attracted worldwide attention have been made, Yang said, adding that it is under the leadership of the CPC that the Chinese people have found a path of development suited to China's national conditions.

The Chinese people have a high degree of confidence in their own development path, theory, system and culture and will unswervingly follow their own development path, and no force can stop the Chinese people from marching forward, Yang said.

China's determination to defend national sovereignty, security and development interests is unwavering and no one should expect China to swallow anything that undermines its own interests, Yang said.

Yang said that China urges the US side to come to a clear assessment of the situation, correct its mistakes and immediately stop slandering China and interfering in China's internal affairs. - Xinhua/Asian News Network (ANN)

China condemns U.S. Xinjiang bill 

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Documentary reveals facts: Brutal scenes of attacks show sacrifice of police, justify Xinjiang policies  

China's first documentary on its overall counter-terrorism efforts in Xinjiang aired Thursday night prompted wide discussions among the audience with never-before-seen scenes of terrorism, which highlighted the hefty price China has paid and the country's resolve to eradicate terrorism.

Video and audio clips in the English-language documentary were shown for the first time as evidence of the horrible crimes wrought by terrorists in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. It also showed interactions between terrorists and overseas masterminds.

The nearly one hour-long documentary, "Fighting Terrorism in Xinjiang," which was streamed on CGTN, China's state broadcaster, has four parts. It begins with the evolution of extremism in Xinjiang, followed by the fight against terrorism. It also illustrated the interactions of terrorists and overseas forces accompanied by audio and video evidence. The documentary ends by highlighting international cooperation on counter-terrorism.

Zheng Liang, a research fellow at Guangdong-based Jinan University, who studied Xinjiang for more than 10 years, told the Global Times that he felt "shocked" after viewing the documentary.

Zheng said that previous videos on Xinjiang's counter-terrorism were not as specific and well-edited as the Thursday one. "This newly released documentary uses quite different visual language adopted by mainstream media."

"The authorities did not publish the video and details of terrorist attacks in Xinjiang before out of concern they may cause panic. This proves China had paid a high price in fighting terrorism, and the international community should have a clear understanding of this," Li Wei, a counter-terrorism expert at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, told the Global Times.

Li noted that the video and audio footage justify China's Xinjiang policies in countering terrorism, including launching the vocational education and training centers, which have been highly effective in de-radicalizing and fighting extremist forces.

The beginning of the documentary features the landscape of Xinjiang, its culture and the different ethnic groups in China, including the prosperous markets and people's peaceful and happy lives. Then the scene shifts to depicting the threat of terrorism that wrought havoc in the region.

Global threat

Xinjiang has long been the main battlefield of countering terrorism. According to incomplete data, from 1990 to 2016, Xinjiang endured thousands of terrorist attacks that killed large numbers of innocent people and hundreds of police officers.

The documentary features video footage of terrorist attacks in Xinjiang, including one in Yining, Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture in 1997, which left seven dead and 198 injured; the Urumqi riots on July 5, 2009, which caused 197 deaths and over 1,700 injuries; and the 2013 Seriqbuya attack in Kashi, which left 15 dead and two wounded.

Terrorists also orchestrated attacks in other cities of China: ramming a car into a crowd in Tiananmen Square in 2013, and another attack that struck the Kunming railway station on March 1, 2014, that left 31 dead and 141 wounded.

Police officers in Xinjiang work on the frontline of the fight against terrorism. According to data from China Central Television, from 2013 to 2016, a total of 127 police officers in Xinjiang sacrificed their lives in the line of duty.

Experts believe terrorism is a global threat, and no country can win the war against terrorism on its own. In the face of the threat of terrorism and extremism, Xinjiang has taken a series of measures, including establishing laws and regulations, and launching effective counter-terrorism operations.

According to media reports found by the Global Times, the Xinjiang region launched a special counter-terrorism campaign in May 2014.

Authorities have cracked down on 1,588 terrorist groups, and 12,995 terrorists and 2,052 explosive materials had been seized in Xinjiang since 2014, read a white paper on regional work on counter-terrorism, de-extremism and human rights protection in March.


By Liu Xin and Fan Lingzhi

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Japan stole Diaoyu Islands

China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi has accused Tokyo of stealing disputed islands. Source: AAP

United Nations:  CHINESE Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi has sparked angry exchanges at the UN by accusing Japan of stealing disputed islands. 

Chinese and Japanese envoys had the exchanges on Thursday after Yang heightened tensions over the East China Sea islands, and reopened old diplomatic wounds over World War II.

The Japanese government's purchase of the uninhabited islands from a private owner this month has infuriated Beijing and set off violent protests in China.

"China strongly urges Japan to immediately stop all activities that violate China's territorial sovereignty, take concrete actions to correct its mistakes and return to the track of resolving the dispute through negotiation," Yang told the UN assembly.

He reaffirmed his country's claim that Japan tricked China into signing a treaty ceding the islands in 1895.

Japan says the islands were legally incorporated into its territory.

"The moves taken by Japan are totally illegal and invalid," the Chinese minister said.

"They can in no way change the historical fact that Japan stole Diaoyu and its affiliated islands from China and the fact that China has territorial sovereignty over them."

Japan's move was in "outright denial" of its defeat in World War II, he added, reaffirming China's repeated references to the 1939-45 war.

Yang's speech sparked sharp exchanges between Japanese and Chinese diplomats as each sought a right of reply.

Japan's deputy UN ambassador, Kazuo Kodama, said that "an assertion that Japan took the islands from China cannot logically stand".

Kodama added the references to World War II were "unconvincing and unproductive".

China's UN envoy Li Baodong responded: "The Japanese delegate once again brazenly distorted history, resorting to spurious fallacious arguments that defy all reason and logic to justify their aggression of Chinese territory.

"The Japanese government still clings to its obsolete colonial mindset.

"China is capable of safeguarding the integrity of its territory."

When Kodama responded that the islands "are clearly an inherent territory of Japan", Li returned to the attack.

He  said his Japanese counterpart "feels no guilt for Japan's history of aggression and colonialism".

The Japanese government's purchase of the islands was based purely on "the logic of robbers", he stormed.

China has demanded the return of the uninhabited islands, known as the Diaoyu in Chinese and the Senkaku in Japanese, for decades. Taiwan also claims the islands. -  AFP/Agencies

A man reads the white paper on the Diaoyu Islands at a bookstore in downtown Beijing on Friday. The white paper, entitled Diaoyu Islands, an Inherent Territory of China, published in Chinese, English and Japanese, hit the market on Friday. It has been issued both at home and abroad to assert China's sovereignty over the island and its affiliated islets. Photo: Guo Yingguang/GT

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi accused Japan of stealing the Diaoyu Islands in an address to the UN General Assembly in New York Thursday, urging it to immediately stop infringing on China's territorial sovereignty, correct its mistakes through concrete actions and return to the track of resolving the disputes through negotiation.

Yang used the general debate of the ongoing session of the UN General Assembly to state China's stance over recent rows stirred up by Japan's "nationalization" of the islets.

His remarks came after Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's insistence that no territorial issue exists over the islets during a speech on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Wednesday.

"The Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islets have been an integral part of China's territory since ancient times," Yang said. "China has indisputable historical and legal evidence in this regard."

Yang said Japan stole the islands in 1895 at the end of the Sino-Japanese War and forced the Chinese government to sign an unequal treaty to cede these islands and other Chinese territories.

After World War II, the Diaoyu Islands and other Chinese territories occupied by Japan were returned to China in accordance with the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and other international documents, he said.

The Chinese Foreign Minister stated that, by taking such unilateral actions as the "island purchase," the Japanese government had grossly violated China's sovereignty.

"This is an outright denial of the outcome of the victory in the global anti-fascist war and poses a grave challenge to the post-war international order and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter," he said.

Yang emphasized that the moves taken by Japan are totally "illegal" and "invalid," which can in no way change the "historical fact" that Japan stole the Diaoyu Islands from China and the fact that China has territorial sovereignty over them.

 "The Chinese government is firm in upholding China's territorial sovereignty," he added.
>In a rebuttal session following Yang's speech, Li Baodong, China's permanent representative to the UN, said that "the Japanese government still clings to its old-time colonial mindset," the Xinhua News Agency reported.

According to Xinhua, Li said Japan's "purchase" of the islands is based purely on "the logic of robbers."

"Its purpose is to legalize the stealing and occupation of the Chinese territory through this illegal means and to confuse international public opinion and deceive the people of the world," Li was quoted by Xinhua.

Zhou Hongjun, a professor with the International Law Faculty at the East China University of Politics and Law, told the Global Times that Japan's denial of any territorial issue is void.

The countermeasures taken by China have put the waters off the Diaoyu Islands under the substantial control of both China and Japan, reversing Japan's "illegal" control of the area in recent years, said Zhou.

"We ought to consolidate and extend our progress," Zhou said.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Yang met with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday.

Reuters quoted a senior US State Department official as saying that during the talks, Clinton said it was important to ratchet down the quarrel over the islands that has soured ties between Asia's two largest economies.

"We believe that Japan and China have the resources, have the restraint, and have the ability to work on this directly and take tensions down," the official said.

Separately, the Chinese embassy in Tokyo said in a statement on its website that it received a suspicious envelope on Thursday, and that after an inspection by Japanese police, a rifle bullet was found in the envelope on Friday.

The embassy said that the Japanese police are investigating the incident, and the embassy has demanded Japanese police take concrete measures to protect the safety of Chinese organizations, enterprises and citizens in Japan.

Kyodo reported that the envelope bore the name of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.

A spokeswoman at the prime minister's office only said that Noda had not sent the bullet, without elaborating on any action it might take, reported AFP. - Agencies

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Japan-China Territorial Dispute is Serious, and Escalating!

The Prime Minister’s residence in Tokyo has a “war room.”  During the a.m. hours of July 11 the room was bustling as government and Japanese

Self Defense Force officials studied intelligence and heard briefings on intrusions of three Chinese navy ships into waters around the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyutai Islands) claimed by Japan as its “exclusive economic zone”  (EEZ).

The three Chinese ships had entered Japan’s EEZ waters after 4 a.m. on the 11th.  They were met, followed, and ordered out of the EEZ by Japanese Self Defense Force ships.  They finally departed just after 8 a.m.

Later in the day, Japan’s deputy foreign minister summoned the Chinese ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and delivered a formal protest over the Chinese “intrusion.”

At the time, Japan’s foreign minister, Gemba Koichiro, was in Phnom Penh attending the ASEAN foreign ministers’ summit.  That day, the 11th, Gemba met in a hotel with Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi.  The meeting was scheduled to take 30 minutes.  It continued for 50 minutes.

This could not have been a pleasant meeting.   Very likely, it was lacking in the normal diplomatic decorum.  Seemingly overnight, Japan-China relations have turned icy, bitter, and emotionally charged.

The Gemba-Yang meeting was the first since Prime Minister Noda announced on July 7 that it had become Japanese policy for the central government to purchase the uninhabited Senkaku islands–now privately owned by Japanese interests and administered by Okinawa prefecture–that are also claimed by China, which calls the chain “Diaoyutai.”

Gemba’s talking points with Yang were scripted by Noda who had told reporters on July 7:  “There can be no doubt that the Senkaku Islands are part of Japanese territory, both under international law and from a historical point of view.  The Senkakus are under the effective control of our nation, and there is no territorial issue with any country over the islands.”  (The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 8.)

How Yang responded we can only guess.  We can imagine that the two men talked—or shouted—past each other, uttering almost identical, conflicting positions.

The incursion of the three Chinese vessels was plainly a response to Noda’s announcement, and a signal from China that “nationalization” of the islands by Japan would be met by further escalation.

Tokyo mayor Ishihara Shintaro first touted in April the idea of purchasing the islands, now owned by a man from Saitama prefecture, by Tokyo municipality.  Since then he has continued to advance this idea, setting up a special team in the Tokyo government under his direct control, and raising donations from around the country that reportedly now total more than JPY 1.3 billion (USD 165 million)

Ishihara’s announcement drew a furious response from Beijing.  Also, a public comment from Japan’s ambassador to China, Niwa Uichiro, a former president of one of Japan’s largest general trading companies (sogoshosha), C. Itoh & Co.

“If Ishihara’s plan is implemented, it will produce a crisis in Sino-Japan relations. We cannot let it ruin everything we’ve done in past decades,” Niwa was quoted as saying by the Financial Times on June 7.

This statement raised hackles in nationalist circles and in both major Japanese political parties.  To hard-liners, such a statement displayed weakness and lack of resolve, and sent the wrong message to China.

PM Noda seems to have hoped to quell some of the controversy and unify Japan’s response by “centralizing” Ishihara’s initiative and making it a national government initiative.

The confrontation between Japan and China on the Senkaku/Diaoyutai issue has escalated to a truly dangerous level.  Objectively it must be stated that it has been Japan that has done the most to raise tensions.  Further escalation cannot be in the interests of either side.  While his leadership in domestic policy matters has generally been laudable, even brilliant, in relations with China on this issue he seems captive to interests that would lead Japan into a trap.

When Japan and China established diplomatic relations in 1972, Premier Zhou Enlai agreed that the issue of Daiyutai (Senkaku) could be put to one side until the time for resolution “was ripe.”  In 1978, when the two countries concluded an historic peace treaty, Deng Xiaoping said of the issue that it could be settled by “our children and grandchildren.”

Japan seems compelled to force the issue with China, while China would very likely be satisfied to live with the status quo, as long as Japan would acknowledge that it too has a claim on the islands and surrounding area.   Diplomatic negotiation of some kind of modus vivendi and mutual efforts at resource development and safe-guarding navigation would be possible on this basis.

Nothing so positive seems likely under current trends.  Quite the opposite.  Increasing, and increasingly dangerous, confrontation seems to lie ahead.

By Stephen Harner, Forbes Contributor

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