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Showing posts with label United States Department of Commerce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label United States Department of Commerce. Show all posts

Saturday, July 30, 2011

US growth anemic, debt row poses recession risk






A man stands outside a store advertising that it is going out of business in New York, July 19, 2011. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

(Reuters) - The economy stumbled badly in the first half of 2011 and came dangerously close to contracting in the January-March period, raising the risk of a recession if a standoff over the nation's debt does not end quickly.

Output increased at a 1.3 percent annual pace in the second quarter as consumer spending barely rose, the Commerce Department said on Friday. In the first three months of the year, the economy advanced just 0.4 percent, a sharp downward revision from the previously reported 1.9 percent gain.


"The economy essentially came to a grinding halt in the first half of this year," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "We did get side-swiped by some temporary factors which are fading, but it raises some concerns about the sustainability the recovery."


The weaker-than-expected second-quarter reading and downward revisions extending into last year underscored the frail state of the recovery, which economists said could fall off the rails if lawmakers do not raise the nation's $14.3 trillion borrowing limit and avoid a government default.


Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, decelerated sharply in the second quarter, advancing at only a 0.1 percent rate -- the weakest since the recession ended two years ago.


Stocks on Wall Street fell on the data and the debt impasse on Friday, to record their worst week in a year. Prices for government debt rallied, while the dollar fell broadly.




FUNDAMENTAL SLOWDOWN?


The Obama administration has said it will run out of borrowing authority on Tuesday and could soon run out of cash, but talks aimed at raising the debt ceiling remain deadlocked.


"This should wake up those in Washington who still have their thinking caps on," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. "There is no margin for error and a default that lasted any length of time could push us back into recession."


But any debt agreement would include budget cuts that could also weigh on growth. High Frequency Economics said in a note on Thursday that a deal to trim the U.S. deficit would likely shave government spending by about $70 billion, or one-half of a percentage point of GDP, in its first year.


Growth in the first half of 2011 was held back by a combination of bad weather, expensive gasoline and supply chain disruptions after the earthquake disaster in Japan.


With economic activity yet to show signs of perking up, even with gasoline prices off their highs and the Japan supply constraints easing, there is concern that some of the weakness might be fundamental and linger for a while.


While economists still expect growth to accelerate to about a 3 percent pace for the remainder of this year and next year, the risks are stacked to the downside.


Annual revisions to GDP data that take into account newly available source material, including tax returns, showed the economy lost steam in late 2010, before it ran into the temporary headwinds. Fourth-quarter growth was revised to a 2.3 percent rate from 3.1 percent.


The revisions also showed the 2007-2009 recession was much more severe than prior measures had found.
The downgrades help to explain why the economy has only regained a fraction of the more than 8 million jobs lost during the downturn.


Economists said the current bout of weakness reinforced views that the Federal Reserve will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance for a while, but few think the central bank will spring to the economy's rescue if it can avoid it.


"In the immediate environment, with so much at stake on fiscal policy, I think the Fed wants to remain quietly on the sidelines, sorting out events and how the data plays out in the second half of the year," said Robert DiClemente, chief economist at Citigroup in New York.


JOLT FROM JAPAN


The U.S. central bank has held interest rates close to zero since December 2008, and it has bought $2.3 trillion in bonds in an effort to further spur the economy. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has opened the door to a further easing of monetary policy, but officials have said they are hesitant to act.


"It's a very high bar," Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart told CNBC on Friday.


The March earthquake in Japan severely disrupted U.S. auto output, which subtracted 0.12 percentage point from GDP growth in the second quarter.


The decline combined with high gasoline prices to weigh on retail sales as consumers were unable to find the vehicle models they wanted.


Future spending strength will depend on employment and confidence. So far, the immediate outlook is not promising.


The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell to 63.7 in July from 71.5 in June, a separate report showed.


But economists are cautiously optimistic the jobs market will have started to improve somewhat in July after faltering badly in the last two months, although U.S. companies are still trying to hold the line on hiring to save costs.


Merck & Co said on Friday that it plans to slash thousands of jobs by late 2015 to wring out savings of up to $1.5 billion a year.


Nonfarm jobs likely rose 90,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey, after June's paltry 18,000 gain.
Growth in the second quarter was supported by a smaller trade deficit, a pick-up in home building and a healthy rise in business spending. Most encouraging was a lack of a big build-up in business inventories, which rose only modestly.


"Inventory building does not seem to be overdone, which sets us up for a good boost from manufacturing in the second half," said Moody's Analytics' Sweet.


Government spending was another drag on growth in the second quarter. Overall inflation slowed during the quarter, but underlying price pressures continued to build.


(Editing by Leslie Adler)


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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

US Home Price rise fails to lift housing gloom






A realtor and bank-owned sign is displayed near a house for sale in Phoenix, Arizona, January 4, 2011. REUTERS/Joshua Lott

WASHINGTON | Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:03pm EDT
 
(Reuters) - Prices for new single family homes rose to a five-month high in June even as sales slipped, but recovery for the broader housing market continues to be frustrated by an oversupply of properties.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the median sales price for a new home increased 5.8 percent last month to $235,200. Compared to June of last year, prices rose 7.2 percent.


Indications that home prices were starting to stabilize were also evident in the S&P/Case Shiller survey, whose composite index of prices in 20 metropolitan areas was flat in May after a 0.4 percent gain in April.
Analysts, however, said firming prices would likely be short-lived given the huge supply of homes on the market.


"Sales are the key and the surge turns into a torrent only if the sales firm or much more time passes," said Michael Montgomery, a U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.


New home sales fell 1 percent to an annual rate of 312,000 units in June. A report last week showed sales of previously-owned homes fell to a seven-month low in June, but average prices rose 0.8 percent to $184,300 from a year ago.


SPRING FLUKE?


"We have been expecting an increase in home prices in the spring as distressed sales become a smaller share of activity amid a seasonal pick-up in voluntary sales," said Michelle Meyer, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. "This will likely reverse in the winter, dragging down prices again."


A glut of homes for sale as the economy struggles with a 9.2 percent unemployment rate is weighing on the housing market. There were about 3.77 million used homes on the market in June, plus properties in foreclosure.


The housing market is just one trouble spot for an economy that has been trapped in a soft patch since the beginning of the year.


But there is also hope U.S. economic growth will regain momentum in the second half of the year, and other data on Tuesday showed consumers grew more optimistic about the future this month.


The Conference Board's index of consumer attitudes rose to 59.5 from 57.6 in June, beating economists' expectations for a reading of 56.0.


Still, confidence remains at low levels and consumers grew less optimistic about current conditions. 


Confidence could be shattered if the U.S. Congress fails to raise the country's borrowing limit, which could trigger a debt default and downgrade of the United States' coveted triple-A credit rating.

The stalemate in debt talks pushed down Wall Street stocks for a second straight day and drove the dollar downward against a basket of currencies. But prices for U.S. government debt rose as investors still regard Treasuries as one of the lowest-risk investments out there.




COMPANIES WORRIED


U.S. corporations are concerned about the recovery, which has struggled to gain momentum after the 2007-09 recession with the drag of high unemployment and slack demand.


United Parcel Service Inc, the world's largest package delivery company, gave a cautious outlook and cited the stalled debt talks as a threat to confidence.


Ford Motor Co, announcing profits that topped Wall Street expectations, said it now sees U.S. sales for the full year at the bottom end of its previous forecast of 13 million to 13.5 million vehicles.


The government is expected to report on Friday the economy grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate, according to a Reuters survey, after a tepid 1.9 percent pace in the first three months of the year.


A Reuters survey of economists put the prospect of a new recession at one in five, and 38 of the 54 economists polled said they expected the United States would lose its triple-A debt rating from at least one ratings agency.


(Additional reporting by Leah Schnurr in New York, Editing by Neil Stempleman, Gary Crosse)

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