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Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts

Friday, April 16, 2021

West-backed color revolution a ‘top threat’ to China's national, political security


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The sixth National Security Education Day falls on Thursday, with the Chinese national security agency releasing a series of cases related to the threat against China's political security. Experts on international intelligence and security said under the intensifying China-US competition, foreign hostile forces have increased efforts to target the political security of China rather than merely conducting regular espionage activities.

The law enforcement cases released by relevant national security agencies this year are different from the past, which specifically focus on the political security issue, including suspects who have colluded with foreign anti-China forces that try to subvert the state power. Some of them are related to the Hong Kong turmoil in 2019, which try to expand the Western-backed color revolution from the special administrative region to the mainland.

"When we talk about national security, people will normally think of foreign espionage activities that target China's military and economic intelligence. But now many recent cases show that the internal and external anti-China forces are colluding with each other," Li Wei, an expert on national security and anti-terrorism at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times.

"This shows that the foreign hostile forces are strengthening their efforts to promote 'color revolution', to damage the political security of our country," Li said, stressing that this has become the primary national security challenge that China is facing at the moment.

Regular espionage activities targeting military and economic intelligence aim to help relevant countries in their negotiations or competition with China, "but the color revolution that directly targets our political security is trying to harm the stability and public order in our country, so it's much more serious and destructive," said a Chinese expert on international intelligence who asked for anonymity.

Technically, a color revolution is a "smarter measure" to help Western countries, especially the US, destabilize or overthrow a country, the expert said. "After the Iraq War, the US and its allies have been more reluctant to dispatch ground troops because direct military operation will cause casualties to their soldiers and other unpredictable costs. But using social media networks, NGOs, and 'diplomats' to mobilize, train, fund and organize local people against the government will cost less and is easier to create chaos."


Humanitarian disaster: the truth of US-initiated wars 


"We can see many similar cases in Syria, Libya, Venezuela, Ukraine and Belarus. The main actors in those countries are local people guided by Western proxies, and Western military forces normally serve as a supporting role, and sometimes they don't even show up," he said.

Chinese analysts said the US and its allies dare not directly launch military operations against nuclear-armed major powers, like China and Russia, or their neighboring countries. So after a series of ineffective approaches like the trade war, military pressure and propaganda stigmatization, the color revolution is being used a major tactic to disrupt China's development, and it seems like is the last card that the US can play to stop China from realizing great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

More aggression

In one case among the recently released law enforcement cases that aim to promote national security education, a student surnamed Tian who studied journalism at a university in North China's Hebei Province has become a "cub reporter" in China working for a mainstream Western media. Tian established an anti-China website in 2018 and cooked up and spread a huge amount of disinformation and political rumors.

In April 2019, Tian was invited to visit a Western country, and has engaged with more than 20 hostile foreign groups and more than a dozen officials of the host country to receive direct instruction, which requires Tian to provide "evidence" that could be used to stigmatize China. Tian's acts have seriously harmed China's political security, and he was arrested in June 2019, according to information provided by state security agencies.

Li said this is a typical case of the US and Western anti-China forces infiltrating and inciting Chinese students and using them to serve the ideological warfare against China.

"Working for Western media outlets is not a problem, but if using the profession of a journalist as a cover to conduct activities to harm national security is a crime," Li said, noting that not all employees in Western media outlets are spies, but there are some Western journalists backed by Western politicians and intelligence agencies.

In cooking-up rumors about "genocide" and "forced labor" in China's Xinjiang, Western media are playing an important role, Li noted. "Just like this case, those 'journalists' are receiving funding and training in other countries, and implementing the tactic of anti-China politicians to destabilize China."


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On Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at the routine press conference that in 2020, the US ambassador to Turkey met with the head of the local ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) branch.

The ETIM, or Turkistan Islamic Party, is an extremist, terrorist and separatist organization that challenges China's sovereignty and stability in Xinjiang. The UN Security Council Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee has listed ETIM as a terrorist organization since 2002.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry played a video segment at the press conference, which showed Sibel Edmonds, a former FBI translator, revealing in a 2015 interview that "a lot of these people are taken out (from Xinjiang) by the Gladio operatives...they are trained, they are armed and then they are sent back."

Putting things together, one cannot help but wonder, what did the US ambassador to Turkey talk about with the head of anti-China force? What is Operation Gladio? Does the US intend to cause trouble in Xinjiang?" Zhao said.

According to the released information, in the past, some arrested former senior officials in Xinjiang said they even colluded with foreign separatist forces to conduct or tolerate terrorist attacks in the region, and use textbooks with extremist content in local schools, which brought serious damage to the national unity and political security.

Hong Kong frontline

Hong Kong is another frontline of China's national security and political security. Since the national security law for Hong Kong took effect in June 2020, foreign forces behind months-long anti-government riots in the city since June 2019 have begun to waver, given that offenders would face severe sentences — as high as life imprisonment. The law would also cut off "the invisible hands" behind the chaos caused by foreign troublemakers, experts said.

It's not surprising to many that Western forces used Hong Kong's open city status to incite color revolution through various channels, including media outlets, student unions, political parties and labor unions by funding, training, advising them or organizing illegal assemblies, protests and riots, all tactics that could be found in the 2019 turmoil.

The implementation of the national security law helped Hong Kong restore social order, plugging the loopholes in local security laws, Chris Tang Ping-keung, Commissioner of Police, told the Global Times on Wednesday, as the law has been functioning as an effective deterrence to those lawbreakers who endanger national security.

Since the implementation of the national security law for Hong Kong, 100 people have been arrested by the Hong Kong Police Force for suspected of endangering national security, Tang said.

Safeguarding national security is regarded as the top priority for the Commissioner of Police for 2021, which is also among the top four tasks for the HKPF. The police team will continue collecting and analyzing national security-related intelligence, investigating in criminal cases endangering national security and conducting intelligence-driven operations to prevent acts endangering the national security, Tang noted.

"The HKPF will also enhance cooperation with all institutions and stakeholders in safeguarding national security and earn more public trust and support," he said.

To facilitate public participation in safeguarding national security, the HKPF national security department has launched a hotline for reporting relevant non-emergency cases since November 5, 2020.

Nasty acts will backfire

Apart from targeting Xinjiang and Hong Kong which are traditional geopolitical hotspots, foreign hostile forces are also keen to use issues like LGBT, feminism and environmentalism which are easy to stir heated discussions on social media via disinformation and rumors to create problems by instigating conflicts between specific groups in China, said the anonymous expert on international intelligence.

Fortunately, this kind of practice is unable to cause a significant impact or escalate into a massive color revolution, since with the modernization and development of China, the majority of Chinese netizens are able to discuss these issues with a mature and reasonable attitude, and legal civil organizations on LGBT or environment protection will distance themselves from hostile foreign intervention, the expert said.

"Those extremists backed by Western forces have been marginalized in our society and their illegal activities online and offline will be managed and controlled effectively by relevant law-enforcement agencies," he noted.

Ironically, the US has found that some of its approaches to push color revolution worldwide could backfire, and the rise of Trumpism and intensifying Black Lives Matter movement and the Capitol Hill riot have seriously undermined its image and credibility when it tries to promote color revolutions in other countries, the expert said.

International cooperation

The Western-backed color revolution is a common threat faced by China and many countries including Russia, and countries in Central Asia, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. So defending political security now also requires international cooperation, analysts said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at a press conference after his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in March that the two countries will jointly oppose color revolutions and safeguard their national sovereignty and political security.

"Fighting color revolutions is an important task for China and Russia to not just protect themselves but also safeguard regional peace and stability. The two countries could cooperate on intelligence sharing, joint operations against Western illegal NGOs that would create disinformation to hype instability and cybersecurity," Yang Jin, an expert at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times

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Thursday, March 11, 2021

Splashing $10m a year to split and subvert China, US govt-backed foundation unabashedly reveals funding scheme

 NED's spending on anti-China institutes and projects in 2020 Source: NED website Graphic: GT

The National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a veteran anti-China foundation financed by the US government, has been discovered to have spent more than $10 million to fund secessionist organizations and subversive activities in China in 2020. In the financial statements published on NED's website in February, at least 69 programs and activities related to secessionists and anti-China forces received grants in the past year, maliciously interfering in China's internal affairs using pretexts like human rights and religious freedom.

NED is notorious for propagating anti-China propaganda and meddling in other countries' internal affairs. Funding for this self-proclaimed private, nonprofit organization, which largely comes from the US Congress, has long been funneled to secessionists in China's Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan regions, observers have found.

Allen Weinstein, the co-founder of NED, told The Washington Post back in 1991 that "a lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA."

The foundation - once behind some covert operations in Eastern Europe in the 1980s and 1990s - now plays a major role in the infiltration and penetration of US-sponsored hostile Western forces into China, said Cao Wei, an expert on security studies at Lanzhou University.

"Their aim is to contain China's development and rise," Cao told the Global Times.

NED's spending on splitting and subverting China in 2020. Graphic: GT
 

Supporting Hong Kong rioters

On its website, NED published the list of grants for China in 2020 covering four main regions: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region, and the rest of the Chinese mainland. With a total of $10.2 million, the grant funding in 2020 was much higher than the $6 million it unabashedly spent in these regions in 2019, the Global Times found.

Hong Kong seemed to be an investment priority for NED in 2020, with more than $2 million in grants being targeted to at least 11 anti-China organizations and projects in the region that year, the NED's website revealed.

The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI), two major US-based organizations included on China's sanctions list for supporting anti-China forces to create chaos and engage in extremist, violent and criminal acts in Hong Kong, unsurprisingly became recipients of grants by NED once again in 2020.

NED gave the Hong Kong teams of NDI and IRI $350,000 each in 2020, which are the two largest recipients in Hong Kong.

Angelo Giuliano, a Hong Kong affairs observer from Switzerland, told the Global Times the US government has always adopted a strategy of funding NGOs, instructing them to "help" particular countries to change course into more "civil societies," which is, in actuality, a blatant attempt at interfering in the internal affairs of other countries or even subverting their administrations.

NDI's key members reportedly met rioters in Hong Kong to support the violence there. Adam Nelson, a senior program manager of NDI's Asia team, met some of the leaders of the Hong Kong rioters in December 2019 at a local restaurant. The organization's president, Derek Mitchell, was also seen talking with riot leader Anson Chan Fang On-sang in Hong Kong one day in November 2019, just after the region's council elections ended, local media reported.

NED was actively seeking foreign allies for the Hong Kong rioters, in addition to providing funding. The foundation said it spent more than $75,000 in the name of building international solidarity and support for Hong Kong in 2020, openly interfering with China's internal affairs with foreign forces.

NED increased its investment in Hong Kong after the "Occupy Central" movement in 2014. It spent an average of $450,000 every year on the city to instigate acts of sabotage between 2015 and 2018, according to the local news outlet wenweipo.com.

"NED is only the tip of the iceberg, the visible side," Giuliano told the Global Times. There is probably more hidden and complex financing when it comes to Hong Kong, which may have started even before the 1997 handover," he said, suggesting the logic behind it is the US' increasing fear of China and some complex practical interests.

Truth or lies? How Xinjiang victims give contradicting testimonies in Western media reports. Graphic: GT 

 

Making waves in Xinjiang and Tibet

China's Xinjiang and Tibet regions are major regions where the US' anti-China forces attempted to make waves in 2020. NED spent $1.25 million in Xinjiang and $1 million in Tibet to support secessionist groups and activities there, according to the financial disclosures it published on its website on January 25.

More than half of its Xinjiang-related grants went to the notorious separatist organization, World Uyghur Congress (WUC), and its Uyghur Human Rights Project (UHRP) in 2020, the Global Times found.

Based in Munich, the US-backed WUC, which was reportedly found to be linked to terrorist groups, aims to split Xinjiang from China and this goal has never changed, Weinsheimer, a German scholar on China's ethnic groups, told the Global Times.

In February 2020, WUC triggered widespread anger after using photos of some Xinjiang locals to spread rumors during the 43rd session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland. The group printed many photos of Uygur people and concocted false allegations, alleging they were detained or had gone missing in Xinjiang.

One of the persons in the photos happened to be Halat Abudurehman, a friend of Mahemuti Abuduwaili, deputy director of the institute of history at the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences, who was then also in Geneva. Mahemuti told the Global Times that he was surprised to see his friend's photo there. He later called Halat and found the latter was on a walk.

UHRP was active in spreading the recent mass rape allegations against Xinjiang, which involved a woman named Tursunay Ziawudun who claimed to have been gang-raped in a county in Xinjiang. However, the interviews she gave to Western media before did not include allegations of rape or harsh treatment.

UHRP helped Tursunay get to the US where she applied to stay, BBC reported in February. After UHRP stepped in, Tursunay began to claim to have been raped in training centers in Xinjiang.

NED and the separatist groups it funded in Xinjiang invoke human rights and democracy as a cover, but their actions and activities of maligning the Chinese government and deceiving the world have exposed their real political intentions for dividing China and disrupting Xinjiang region's development, Cao Wei remarked.

What NED kept doing in Tibet follows the same old gimmick, said Wang Hongwei, a professor at Renmin University of China's School of Public Administration and Policy.

"Its grants were used to finance the NGOs that explicitly support 'Tibetan independence,' and to foster illegal publications, broadcasts, or media that keep distorting the history and current situation of Tibet on international public opinion stage," Wang told the Global Times.

Infamous separatist organizations, including the Tibetan Center for Human Rights and Democracy (TCHRD), and the Tibet Justice Center (TJC) were on NED's 2020 grants list.

Based in India, TCHRD has frequently accused the Chinese government of arresting people in Tibet, which were proved to be no more than baseless attacks.

The US-based TJC was once turned down by the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. TJC aimed to split China and its separatist activities had gravely violated the purposes and principles of the Charter of the UN, said Zhang Yishan, then Deputy Permanent Representative of China to the UN.

Students for a Free Tibet (SFT) was one of the organizations that received more funding from NED in 2020. It got $150,000 under the grant category: strengthening the Tibetan movement - campaigning, training, and strategic organizing. This US-based separatist group was found to have participated in the deadly March 14 riots in Lhasa in 2008, according to China's public security authority.

A more flexible, covert strategy

NED's grant information also showed the anti-China forces' attempt of further infiltrating the Chinese mainland in 2020.

The foundation spent at least $5.8 million in funding more than 30 institutes and projects targeting the mainland, including a $1.2 million grant used to defame the Chinese government on an international scale under the guise of "freedom of expression," observers found.

Among those on NED's long grants list, the organization Solidarity Center (SC) appears to have received more than $1 million to "raise workers' rights awareness," and the US-based secessionist news site, China Digital Times, collected a grant of $125,000.

The data on NED's regional funding and financial statements reveals it has a clear plan and strategy for containing China, Cao Wei said.

Compared with other more intense struggles, the strategy of encouraging these ideologically biased organizations to promote rogue political movements, or to incite hatred under the banner of safeguarding rights, is now more likely to be used by Western anti-China forces, said Cao.

"The strategy is more flexible and covert, less costly, but very effective," he told the Global Times. "It may cause social unrest and even lead to a color revolution in serious cases."

Wang pointed out that NED's primary mission is to serve US foreign policy interests, and a very important part of that mission is to obstruct countries that threaten the US by agitating internal conflicts to weaken and defeat them.

NED has used tactics such as propping up the opposition in general elections or venting at scandals by the ruling party during elections, funding illegal publications, broadcasts and media, and leading figures in the opposition to create images of persecuted heroes to generate public sympathy, Wang said. "All of these tactics have been used on China in recent years," he told the Global Times.

Cao suggested Chinese authorities should actively implement laws and regulations on the management of foreign NGOs and strengthen international cooperation, cutting off the channels of collusion between anti-Chinese forces and their external links, and preventing the formation of rumor mills and fake news proliferation globally.

In recent years, the Chinese government has imposed sanctions on important figures tied to NED, amended the laws on the management of foreign NGOs and counterintelligence, which have achieved certain results, observers said.

Apart from reinforcing the oversight of NGOs in China, Wang suggested the Chinese government strengthen ideological education for people to be more confident in the country and avoid being easily tricked by rumors and slander, he said.

Dirty games 

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Tuesday, March 9, 2021

STILL AMRICA FIRST IN TRADE

Domestic drive: The US has endorsed ‘Buy American’ policies, which would favour domestic producers but would be blatantly illegal under WTO rules.

 


https://youtu.be/vcn5Lxshw20 


US multilateralism is coming back in many areas but in trade, many retrograde policies of the past are continuing.


AFTER the end of the Trump presidency in January, multilateralists around the world heaved a collective sigh of relief.

Gone would be the wrecking ball aimed at international institutions.

Gone would be the go-it-alone approach to dealing with global problems. Gone would be policies towards the rest of the world premised on “America First”.

Gone, hopefully, would be the capricious trade wars, some of them directed at American allies.

To a large extent, these high hopes have proved justified.

Within its first 40 days, the Biden administration has reversed many of its predecessor’s disengagements from multilateral institutions and processes.

It has rejoined the Paris Agreement on climate change, which the United States had abandoned in 2017.

It walked back to former president Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organisation (WHO), which was due to take effect from July 6.

It has pledged US$4bil (RM16bil) for the WHO-sponsored Covax initiative which aims to distribute Covid-19 vaccines to the developing world, which the Trump administration refused to join.

It has agreed to endorse an allocation of special drawing rights – the International Monetary Fund’s hard currency – which would provide additional resources to poor countries without adding to their debt, and which former Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin had declined to support.

Given that the World Bank is the world’s biggest financier of climate change-related investments, its president David Malpass reasonably expects that the Biden administration, for which battling climate change is a priority, will be supportive of its mission.

The administration has also vowed the US’ “unshakeable” commitment to Nato, which Trump had derided as an outdated organisation that imposes excessive burdens on the US.

But there is one critical area where the Biden administration is hesitant to support multilateralism, and that is trade.

Here, multilateralists can be grateful for some small mercies.

At least the administration has affirmed its commitment to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) – the custodian and enforcer of world trade rules – which the Trump administration all but ignored during the last four years and even threatened to leave.

It has also broken the impasse over WTO’s leadership, by endorsing the candidacy of Nigerian-American economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala for the post of directorgeneral, which was supported by the majority of the WTO’s 164 members, but which the Trump administration had blocked.

So, after being leaderless for almost six months, the WTO now at least has someone in charge.

Modest ambitions

But beyond that, and judging by actions rather than words, the multilateralist ambitions of the Biden administration on trade appear modest.

It has made clear that it will not pursue any trade agreements until it restores America’s competitiveness by investing trillions of dollars in areas such as energy, education and infrastructure.

It has endorsed “Buy American” policies, which would favour domestic producers and would be blatantly illegal under WTO rules.

Citing “systemic problems”, it has continued the Trump administration’s policy of blocking appointments of new judges to the WTO’s appellate body, which functions as a “supreme court” that adjudicates trade disputes.

The body has been unable to issue any judgments since Dec 11, 2019, because it did not have the minimum of three members required to issue a ruling.

Currently, with all judges having completed their terms, there is not a single judge on the body. This means that any appeal against a judgment by a lower panel at the WTO disappears into legal limbo, and the judgment is not binding.

In September last year, a lower panel ruled in favour of China, which made the case that the 25% tariffs levied by the US in June and September 2018 violated the WTO’s cardinal principle of non-discrimination.

The US is appealing that judgment, but the appeal cannot be heard, as the US would know, so the tariffs will remain in place.

Indeed, the Biden administration appears in no hurry to lift the Trump administration’s tariffs on China, all of which are likely to be WTO-illegal, according to trade experts.

It wants to use these tariffs as leverage to secure concessions from Beijing, including its compliance with the phase one trade deal negotiated by the Trump administration under which China was supposed to buy US$ 200 bil worth of US goods and services split over last year and this year, but is falling short of the target.

It has also continued the Trump administration’s policy of designating Hong Kong’s exports as “Made in China”, citing “national security” concerns – which means that in the US view, that issue, too, cannot be adjudicated by the WTO.

In short, a return to multilateralism on trade does not seem to be a priority for the Biden administration.

‘Elephant in the room’

The rise of China is one of the main sources of this reticence.

Like the Republicans, Democrats believe that the WTO is not fit for purpose in dealing with all of China’s alleged trade malpractices.

The case for this is well articulated in a 2016 paper by Harvard Law School Prof Mark Wu, now a senior adviser to the US Trade Representative’s office.

He argues that the main problem is that WTO rules – which were crafted before China joined the organisation – were not made with China’s distinctive economic system in mind.

WTO rules can address only those among China’s trade malpractices which are shared by other countries – such as requiring foreign investors to partner with local firms and buy from local suppliers, or granting exclusive rights to local firms to import or sell goods in the local market – which are practices that are not unique to China, and for which case law already exists.

But problems arise in cases where the boundaries between state and private enterprises are blurred, as is often the case in China. It is then not easy to judge whether a preferential transaction is of a private commercial nature – which falls outside the WTO rules – or amounts to a state subsidy.

At the heart of the problem is what constitutes a “public body”, which in China is not as clear as in other countries.

It is widely accepted, including by WTO itself, that WTO rules need to be updated, not only relating to China but also to issues such as digital trade, competition, services, labour and the environment.

But China, which is involved in the majority of trade disputes involving major economic powers, is the “elephant in the room”.

However, updating the rules should not mean sidelining the WTO in the meantime, which is what seems to be happening.

In a departure from the unilateral approach taken by the Trump administration, the Biden administration says it plans to deal with China’s trade practices in concert with other countries.

But there is no better way to do this than in a multilateral forum like the WTO, which applies a core set of principles to trade disputes such as non-discrimination, has mechanisms to monitor and enforce its rules and which would accommodate the concerns of multiple countries, which is how multilateralism should work.

Besides, China has a good record of complying with WTO rulings that go against it, and not such a good record of caving in to bilateral pressures.

Judicial paralysis

Shutting down the WTO’s judicial function by effectively neutralising its appellate body is especially ill advised.

Some concerns about the way the body functions and its alleged “judicial overreach” may be legitimate, but even if so, this applies only to a minority of cases that the body has adjudicated.

Disabling the WTO’s appellate body prevents the majority of cases, including those unrelated to China, from being resolved.

Besides, for all the criticisms levelled against it, the appellate body has a proud record.

In its 25 years of operation, it has resolved 195 disputes compared with around 160 cases completed in 74 years by the International Court of Justice, with 15 standing judges. Moreover, it has disposed of cases within a few months on average, compared with a few years in the case of other international adjudicating bodies.

Recounting these achievements in her farewell speech on Nov 30 last year, the last appellate judge to finish her term, Dr Zhao Hong, pointed out: “Though there was room to improve, the appellate body distinguishes itself for its outstanding performance among all international adjudicating bodies.”

By continuing to paralyse its functioning, the Biden administration undermines multilateralism and perpetuates the law of the jungle on trade issues, where might is right.

So while the administration has made a good start by re-embracing multilateralism in many areas, its trade policies still leave much to be desired.

-By VIKRAM KHANNA— The Straits Times/ANN



Diplomatic realpolitik

 

AS double-think runs wild in the White House, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia must be enjoying a quiet chuckle. Diplomatic realpolitik has been accorded precedence over the severe action that was expected of President Joe Biden in the context of the US intelligence report that the Crown Prince was complicit in the ghastly killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018.

The Washington Post columnist was allegedly drugged and his body dismembered. Every tenet of human rights was thus violated.

By advancing what they call a “free pass” to MBS, America’s President has proffered a feeble excuse to justify his defence of the de facto leader of the desert kingdom. Biden, who had referred to Saudi Arabia as a “pariah kingdom with no redeeming social value” in course of his election campaign, has now softened his stance to a dramatic degree.

It thus comes about that in the somewhat surprising reckoning of the US President, the price of directly penalising Saudi Arabia’s crown prince is “too high”.

He may be right when viewed through the prism of certitudes of foreign policy.

The US President was reportedly convinced by his newly formed national security team that there was no way to formally bar the Saudi crown prince from entering the United States or to take a call on the criminal charges against him.

Altogether, it was feared by the current US administration that a drastic reprisal would have breached the equation with one of America’s key Arab allies, not to discount the flutter within the Arab region generally.

There is said to have been a consensus in the White House that the price of that breach was quite “simply too high” in terms of Saudi cooperation in the fight against terrorism and in confronting Iran.

Biden had been urged by a section of the establishment to at least impose the same travel restrictions against the Crown Prince as the Trump administration had imposed on others involved in the plot.

The White House appears to have drawn a fine distinction between MBS and the Saudi military. While the Crown Prince is unlikely to be invited to the United States in the immediate perspective, the establishment has denied that the Saudi ruler is being given a “pass”.

It is pretty obvious though, that the coveted International Visitor Program (IVP) will not be denied to the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince. Going by the terms of protocol, he may yet be treated as a state guest in America.-Reuter

 

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Thursday, January 21, 2021

Joe Biden sworn in as 46th US president, orders US to rejoin climate change, drops Trump's toxic rhetoric toward China, but 'courage needed to fix ties ...'

 


https://youtu.be/WBn0yKPLJK8

Joe Biden sworn in as 46th US president 

 

President Biden orders US to rejoin Paris Agreement on climate change

US President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order returning the United States to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

 

 Biden drops Trump's toxic rhetoric toward China, but 'courage needed to fix ties'

After a series of drastic events that laid bare the profound weaknesses and failures of the US system, Joe Biden was officially sworn in as the 46th President of the US during a relatively empty event heavily guarded by thousands of soldiers with weapons of war, and used his inaugural speech to address domestic challenges in stark contrast to Donald Trump's bellicose and at times borderline racist rhetoric against China during his farewell speech.

 

As Joe Biden is about to be inaugurated as the new US president in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, .

 

 

Harris Sworn in as 49th US Vice president



Live: Donald Trump holds sendoff ceremony before Joe Biden's inauguration




https://youtu.be/MgWb0HZ10HY


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Friday, October 2, 2020

America’s 5 Stages of Grief Over China’s Rise; Trump and wife test positive for Covid-19

 
 

Whenever people face a huge loss in life — like a sudden divorce or death of a family member — they go through five stages of grief. These stages are denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance. The U.S. is about to lose its top spot as the biggest economy and is, in a textbook manner, going through the same stages.



Denial: Some people like Kishore Mahbubani predicted twenty years ago that China will eventually be the leading economic powerhouse. But Americans chose denial and laughed at the concept. The popular beliefs behind the denials were:

  • China’s economy will collapse any moment now!
  • China will eventually become just like the West and then we will have nothing to worry about.
  • China is a totalitarian, communist country. They don’t understand capitalism or free market, and thus will never be rich.
  • China can never innovate. The workers are just slaves and bots.
  • China makes only crappy products and thus can never compete with western brands.
  • As soon as Chinese people travel to the West and see how glorious the West is, they will go back to China and overthrow the tyrannical and corrupt communist government.
  • China’s GDP numbers and other stats are fake!
  • China’s patents and scientific publications are of low quality.
  • Chinese products will never succeed outside China.
  • We can always nuke China and maintain our hegemony.
  • COVID19 will surely bring China down. And all the countries will start decoupling from China.
Alas, none of those happened. China miraculously kept advancing. Without a single recession in forty years, the engine of China kept roaring. China’s communist party grew the GDP 50x in forty years, lifted 800 million people out of poverty, created the world’s largest middle class, fostered innovative companies, and built a vibrant and all-around successful society. (See my blog on China’s global leadership)..


Anger: After denying reality for a while, people become angry. They feel like victims and start blaming others. That’s exactly what’s been happening, especially since Trump came to office. The anger is reflected in following ways:
  • China stole America’s jobs.
  • China stole intellectual property from the U.S. (after all, Chinese can’t innovate, remember?)
  • Chinese are spies and hackers.
  • China doesn’t buy anything from us.
  • China doesn’t treat U.S. corporations fairly. China is too protectionist.
  • China subsidizes its corporations. Not fair!
  • China made the coronavirus in the Wuhan lab. China tricked us into a lock down.
  • China bad, China bad, China bad!

Bargaining
: This is the hopeful phase. It’s like saying after the divorce, “Maybe I can get my wife back.” This phase is not always benign; it can involve a lot of ruthless scheming as seen in the last four years:

  • If we can just force China to buy more from us, we can eliminate trade deficit and make America great again.
  • Tariffs will cripple China and also force American companies to bring manufacturing jobs back.
  • If we just arrest Huawei’s CFO and kill the company with sanctions, China will bend its knee.
  • Let’s go on an all-out attack on every successful Chinese company. That should do the trick!
  • Let’s use Hong Kong and Uyghur separatists to disrupt China. How about using India and Taiwan to start a war?

None of these seem to be working, although military conflicts are possible (with devastating impact on global economy). America’s tech war will only spur more Chinese innovation and self-reliance.


Depression and Acceptance: We are not here yet. The U.S. is still trying hard to stop China, rather than planning for an inevitable post-American era,  which will start within five years. The geopolitically smart strategy will be to skip the stage of depression and go to acceptance. That will translate to embracing multilateralism and partnering with China, EU and Russia to forge a multi-polar world order for the 21st century. However, with so much Sinophoba and hubris in the U.S., no politician or think tank will dare propose such a solution. So … get ready for American depression.
 
 
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