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Thursday, March 17, 2011

World Energy Market Adjusting to Japan Nuclear Crisis

By Greg lakus | Houston


Snow falls as rescue workers in Japan search for victims of earthquake and tsunami -Photo: AP 

The earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan has disrupted that Asian nation's power plants, including nuclear facilities that are still threatening the area with radiation leaks. The crisis at Japan's nuclear plants has caused a re-assessment of nuclear power plants and projects worldwide and could cause an uptick in demand for other sources of energy including coal, petroleum and natural gas. But energy experts do not believe the Japanese crisis will cause a major upset in world energy markets or even a major pullback from nuclear energy.

The disaster in Japan will have some short-term effect on the world energy market, but energy experts say there is unlikely to be a strong long-term impact. Japan is the third largest economy in the world and it imports almost all of its energy, with nuclear plants, until now, providing around 27 percent of the country's electrical generation. The price of crude oil dipped in recent days on speculation that Japan's demand for oil will continue to be low for many months to come as a result of the catastrophe. Damage to ports and refineries in Japan as well as a lack of electrical power to run those facilities has already caused a sharp decrease in petroleum use.

But Ken Medlock, an energy analyst at Rice University's James Baker Institute for Public Policy, says Japan will be importing some of its oil in a different form. “That crude is going to be redirected to other refineries and Japan will, as soon as they can get things back up and running with some sense of normalcy, will be importing petroleum products instead of crude, likely from some of their Asian neighbors, possibly from the US as well because we have some slack in our refining capacity here,” he said.

Some economists have suggested that there may be a spike in crude oil prices in coming months as Japan imports more oil to use in its recovery and rebuilding effort.  But Medlock does not foresee that either, because he believes the Japanese will have to restrict much of their normal energy usage until they have fully recovered.

“There's a lot of people who will not be driving in their cars they way they were before the accident. Their power consumption patterns may not be the same and quite frankly, the Japanese have demonstrated in the past when they have crises that they are willing to ration electricity to their customer base. I suspect they will do that even as they start to rebuild,” he said.

Medlock does see some increase in Japan's use of coal and natural gas as the country repairs coal and gas-burning power plants damaged by the earthquake and perhaps uses those plants more than nuclear plants for electricity generation. Japan is already imports more coal than any other nation. But, Medlock notes, building new power plants will take a long time and the world market will have time to absorb the additional demand.

The picture for nuclear, however, is mixed. While the Japanese struggle to deal with their current problems it is too early to say what  impact this disaster will have there. But news reports about the disaster are seen around the world and many people are now rethinking their plans to use nuclear power.  Here in Texas plans for expansion of a nuclear plant south of Houston have been shelved. Germany  has shut down seven of its nuclear plants, France has increased inspect, but is continuing its extensive use of nuclear power and Italy remains committed to building its first nuclear power plant.

Robert Bryce, author of the book  “Power Hungry” is an energy expert who advocates more use of nuclear energy. But he concedes the fear kindled by images of the stricken plants in Japan will set back the industry in some countries.

“Regardless , I think, of what happens from now forward, the psychological effects, the political issues surrounding nuclear are going to be much more difficult for any country or any company that is proposing to build them, particularly in the West,” Bryce said.

But Bryce says developing nations are likely to continue their aggressive programs to build nuclear capacity. China, which accounts for around 40 percent of the world's planned nuclear reactors, has suspended approval of new plants because of the crisis in Japan, but once new safety measures are instituted, the projects will probably move forward.

Bryce says interest in nuclear will continue because countries hungry for more electrical power have few other options.“For India, for China, for a lot of other developing countries nuclear is going to continue to be their most attractiveoption simply because of basic physics and math. The power densities that you can get with nuclear are just not available anywhere else,” Bryce said.

Bryce also notes that the damaged reactors in Japan were built decades ago before the development of safer designs that address some of the problems the Japanese now face in containing radiation and preventing a reactor meltdown.

“This is an important accident, it is going to change the industry, but a lot of the reactors that are now being designed are this new Generation Three reactors, they use passive fueling designs that should be far safer than the boiling water reactors that are 40-years-old-plus that are now causing the problems in Japan,” Bryce said.

Some environmental groups and anti-nuclear activists have suggested that Japan should abandon its nuclear sector and opt for “green” energy projects like wind and solar. But, as Robert Bryce has long argued, such energy alternatives are no where close to being able to replace the energy generated by a nuclear plant. Both wind and solar produce intermittent energy, depending on when the wind blows and when the sun shines, and neither of them are yet capable of producing more than a small fraction of  the energy demanded by a nation like Japan. In order to recover and get its economy back on track, Japan will have to rely on what is left of its nuclear power sector and increase its use of coal, natural gas and oil.

1 comment:

  1. If you are a Chinese, you MUST see,
    especially the video on U Tube.

    --- Forwarded message -----

    Subject: 日本大地震的真正原因


    日本大地震的真正原因
    作者:西部铁骑

    日本3月11日的9.0级大地震,看是一场大自然的灾难,但从多方面综合分析,可以看出这可能完全是一场人为的大灾难-----人祸!可能是日本自己进行的海底核试验引起的!理由如下:
    /来自中华网社区 Club.china.com/
    一、石原慎太郞前阵子刚刚放言要以核武器对抗中国,3月9日日本就发生了7.4级的地震。这可以推论为石原的狂言只是为日本的核试验放风,而9日的地震其实就是日本进行的核试验。如果不出意外,日本近期还将进行几次核试验,并在不久后在美国的黙许下宣布为有核国家以对抗中国。可惜人算不如天算,想不到引发了世纪大地震而自食恶果。
    二、3月11日地震后,海面出现的神秘大漩涡,可能就是日本通向海底核试验场的遂道崩塌,导致海水倒灌引起的。
    三、以日本现有的技术,能导致日本用于启动冷却设备的三道保障电网都出现故障,特别是柴油发电机不能发电,这有点太不可思议。合理的解释就是日本是故意让电站爆炸让核外泄,以便掩盖3月9日进行核试验发生的核辐射。
    四、美国的航母在100公里外的海面就受到那么强的核辐射,而日本本土却仅仅撤离了核电站周围20公里的人,那么美国航 母上的核辐射从哪来?合理解释就是这些核辐射其实就是日本3月9日核爆造成的。
    五、日本昨天宣布要自行检测电站核辐射量,不让外国插手,为什么?这是做贼心虚!
    事实上,作为一个岛国,倭国有着丰富的潮汐和风力发电资源,同时太阳能也非常先进,但该国对这些视若无物,多年来,全力发展核电。
    如果这仅仅是电力需要也就罢了,但是,有多少人知道?在核电技术已经突飞猛进的今天,倭国的核电设施却一律死抱着第一二代技术不放。
    福岛核电站采用的是铀钚混合氧化物这种比铀氧原料贵2-3倍,而且危险性高的原料,反应堆用的也是安全性差的快增殖反应堆,而且沸水堆只有一回路,直通涡轮。日本人玩这种手段只要有点脑子的都看得出来他们想要干什么:不就是为了储备制造核弹的那点钚嘛。
    现在据报导爆掉的一号堆已经在用硼酸了。一开始不肯用是因为一旦用了硼酸,里面的核燃料就全部报废了。福岛电站用的可是MOX燃料,那可是极重要的战略资源,你们懂的。
    现在国际上最新一代的核反应堆是号称出事故紧急停堆后36小时无人看护照样安全的。但日本人就是不用。简单地讲,它们只造最原始最落后的核电站,绝不采用新技术,哪怕是新技术再成熟,再免费。
    因为原始的一二代技术最有利于大量提炼核原料。最浪费,最低能,最高消耗,最大成本,最不安全,只为换得核原料。

    在地震前不到一个月,倭人已明确表示没有核弹不合理,且举国在为“有核弹化”努力。大家上网查,这几十年来,倭人利用这些原始的电厂,攒了近四千枚核弹的原料。
    可惜啊,人算不如天算,倭人为了获得攻击他人的核弹,不顾科技,不顾地理条件,不顾风险,最终引发了今天可能出现的巨大核灾难风险。
    是典型的损人不利已变态后果。
    海啸过去,倭人早就可以进入灾后重建,但是,天谴啊,一次微不足道的小灾难,恰好击中倭国人修练邪门功夫的命门。当然还有个更小的副作用,就是没电导致的混乱而已,几不足道。
    所以,自然界的天灾基本已然过去,现在倭岛上发生的一切,都是人祸,是它们为了杀人放火祸害世界目的积赞了多年的苦果,是引火烧身的自焚行为。
    可笑有些人还在装道学家。倭人为你们和你们的子孙准备了四千枚核弹,不想在生产过程中遇到天灾发生事故,你们TMD还想着同情?还想着仁义?还想着捐款救灾?

    逆天者,天必诛之!
    日本37万平方公里,却变态地修建了57个核电站,发出的电不到全国需求的30%,一个核电站有4-6个反应堆,即全国有三百多个反应堆。37万*30%=11万平方公里,即三百多个反应堆为11万平方公里供电
    110000/300=367平方公里
    也就是说,日本的一个核反应堆只为367平方公里提供电力。相当于每个县级城市就要配一个核反应堆。这TMD正常吗?
    这场核灾难到底会发展到多大,至少还有三个问题没公开,离了这三个问题,谁也无法预测,只有小鬼子心里清楚。
    第一个问题:它们造出来的四千枚核弹的原料存放在哪里?是否安全?!
    第二个问题:在这些核电站里,到底还有什么秘密,这些以制造核弹原料为目的的核电站里,都有哪些高危和不可告人的东西?!
    第三个问题:日本这些年积攒的核废料都放在哪里?在陆地上?还是在海里?还是偷运到哪里去了?会不会产生危害?
    这些问题都是潜在的核弹级风险。是对全人类的安全威胁!
    最近网上出现很多装13的,这里提醒一下!
    1923年日本发生关东大地震,中国也展开援助。
    事实证明,中国人无私的援助,在金钱和物资方面,为日本节省了相当大的一笔款项,为日后顺利地发动九一八和七七奠定了坚实的基础。

    也就是说,由于有中国人出钱救灾,日本得以省下钱造军火。。。
    同胞们,记请楚了,你今天捐出的每一毛钱,都为日本省下了造一枚子弹的费用,最后这一毛钱有可能回到你或者你亲人的身上。
    你们捐出的是血汗,小鬼子还回来的是子弹
    带来的是刺耳的尖啸,流出的是你和你子孙们的鲜血。。。

    作为一个核工专业的学子,我不禁眼含热泪,学了这些年,终于能跟别人吹一吹了。
    不过可以看出曰本的野心,他的堆居然是铀鈈堆,而不是普通的二氧化铀堆,看来造核弹就在他们掌握中。他们这盘棋很大啊。铀钚堆是什么呢?简单地说,钚也可以做核弹,往长崎广岛投的弹就是钚弹。他们不用二氧化铀做燃料芯块,而是用铀钚合金,这就很说明问题。

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