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Sunday, September 5, 2010

How an economy grows and why it crashes

By ANDREW LEE
andrewlee@thestar.com.my


Author: Peter D. Schiff and Andrew J. Schiff
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

WE never seem to run out of jargons whenever a recession is upon us. An economist marvels at the use of them – phrases such as capital control and fiscal stimulus are thrown around as though it were second nature to them (as it should be).

What of the common people though?

Many of us seem content with the validity of such terms and do not feel the need to question what they mean.
This leads to us assuming the meaning of certain phrases, without feeling the need to consult the great sage that is the world wide web.

My point is, few of us actually understand what we are talking about when we subtly slip in such jargons over coffee with our mates.

In fact, many of us assume that economics is a subject far detached from our everyday lives (a bit like nuclear physics) and that any analysis requiring knowledge on the subject should be left to the experts.

Indeed, piecing together how all the pieces of an economy fit together can be a daunting task – although, if anything, the imminent slow dip back into recession has proven that perhaps the experts themselves are having trouble as well!

It is a popular argument that it was the experts who got us into this mess in the first place.

The push toward Keynesian economics that began after the second world war was a time bomb waiting to explode – at the core of Keynesian’s ideas were that governments could smooth out the volatility of free markets by expanding the supply of money and running budget deficits when times were tough (there’s more jargon for you).

Common sense would suggest that such policy is not sustainable in the long run – all it does is create artificial bubbles in certain sectors of the economy that will come crashing down sooner or later.

How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes by the Schiff brothers is an advocate of such common sense.
Inspired by How an Economy Grows and Why it Doesn’t by the Schiffs’ father Irwin, they have decided to write a more tongue-in-cheek book.

Using illustration, humour and storytelling, the authors attempt to take economics off its lofty shelf and place it back on the kitchen table where it belongs.

The book follows the lives of settlers living alone on a far away island, the actions they take to improve their standards of living and their eventual maturity into the strong, developed nation of Usonia.

Along the way, they face trials and tribulations not unlike those faced by the United States – in fact the reader will encounter many recognisable events and personalities in US economic history as the authors use this as an allegory throughout.

Certain names are changed for comic effect – Ben Bernanke is called “Ben Barnacle”, possibly to highlight his tendencies to inflate the economy, while Richard Nixon is referred to as “Slippery Dickson”, for obvious reasons.

The authors have done a fine job in explaining how economics is relevant to our daily lives.

It must seem taxing, forgive the pun, on us to attempt to understand how banks work, why self sacrifice contributes to society or why comparative advantages should be pursued – but the truth is that the answers to all these questions are much simpler than we think.

The book also does a good job of explaining how the global economic crisis came about.

Once mysterious jargon such as “credit crunch” and “sub-prime mortgages” become clear to the reader, as does the housing glut.

It is also interesting to note how politics seems to have begun to overlap with economics in Western countries, pushing the idea of civil liberties and the free market to the edge.

The converse might also be true, as governments in developing countries begin to realise the best way forward is by gradually relinquishing their control on their economies, thus allowing market forces to exert a greater degree of autonomy.

In hindsight, the best part about the book is that it is much more enjoyable to read than most daily financial papers or certain sites on the Internet offering dryer, more textbook style explanations (Wikipedia being the possible exception).

Somehow, the introduction of characters and events always seem to make any subject more appealing and accessible to readers, and that is certainly very true for a subject with a reputation for being boring like economics.

After going through the book, the reader will no doubt feel more secure over coffee table conversations, having picked up an understanding of economics like no other (as well as meanings to jargons one never attempted to find out).

It does make a person look less pretentious if he actually knows what he is talking about. I leave the last words on this book to a review I found on the Internet: ‘This is a phenomenal book that makes economics so easy a Congress could understand it. Very enlightening!’

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Banking Crisis Will Burden Future Generation

Oxford Analytica, 09.04.10, 06:00 AM EDT

Ireland's debt is accumulating


The Standard and Poor's (S&P) downgrade of Irish sovereign debt to AA- on Aug. 25 was consistent with the other rating agencies, yet it had a greater effect on market sentiment. This is largely a question of timing--in the weeks since the Moody's downgrade on July 19, the extent of Ireland's banking crisis has become better understood.

The Irish banking sector faces several problems:

--Asset write-downs. The scale of asset write-downs and debt defaults to which Irish banks, building societies and firms are subject has grown as assessments of the residential and commercial property and development portfolios of institutions have come to light.

--Banking crisis. Although no Irish bank failed the stress tests of 91 European banks, the European Commission approved 24.3 billion euros ($31.1 billion) to support the nationalized Anglo Irish Bank on Aug. 10. Three weeks later, on Aug. 31, Anglo Irish Bank reported the worst half-year results in Irish corporate history--a loss of 8.2 billion euros. The European Commission is expected to rule in the next few weeks on the Irish government's plan to split Anglo Irish into "good" and "bad" banks, though the weak capital base of any configuration of the former limits the relevance of such a scheme. In addition, Ireland's two main banks, Bank of Ireland and AIB, are now heavily subsidized and have also reported massive losses this year. AIB must raise 7.4 billion euros to meet new capital reserve rule requirements, or face state control.

--NAMA strategy. The prospects for a Swedish-style asset recovery under the National Asset Management Agency is rapidly decreasing. At the outset, it was expected that 80 billion euros of loans would be transferred from banks to NAMA, with a modest haircut of 20%. However, the write-downs are now well over 50%, averaging 38% for Anglo Irish Bank loans, while the Irish Nationwide BS loans were transferred at a 90% write-down. Due diligence has found that the banks misled NAMA about the real value of their loan books as well as the number of debts producing income streams.

--Public finances. The government's commitment to cut Ireland's deficit from 14.3% of GDP in 2009 to 3.0% by 2014 lacks credibility. Already, the state is borrowing 25 billion euros annually to finance public services despite harsh cuts in public sector spending. Rising unemployment and the associated uptake of social benefits are a further strain. Future hardship is likely, as the major domestic mortgage lenders have raised their non-fixed rates three times this year, despite the stability of the ECB rate. On Aug. 26 bond investors pushed 10-year Irish bonds to 344 basis points over German bonds.


Debt dynamics. The economic crisis in Ireland is about debt--individual, institutional and firm, and state. Peculiar to Ireland is the deep intertwining of the banking sector, state institutions and property developers, which produced convoluted, low-collateral loans, a porous regulatory culture and complacency about continuing property-based asset escalation. In a small state, gargantuan property loans take on similar-size debt.

Raising capital. Irish banks face debt repayments of about 30 billion government-guaranteed euros in September, with an equivalent amount of bank debt liabilities maturing in the rest of the year. Owing to the increased cost of Irish state borrowing, these banks will have to pay more than expected, which means they must raise fresh funds in the markets. Such banks' funding costs are normally based on government bond yields coupled with a premium. (The cost of Irish bank bond credit default swaps on senior debt has also risen.) If the banks have trouble raising capital to refinance, they will have to rely on the ECB, which further weakens sovereign debt spreads. The banks can use NAMA bonds (government-backed bonds which replace the real-estate loans deposited with NAMA, which are ultimately ECB-backed) to raise capital.

Outlook. Despite short-term success in raising capital in bond markets, debt is accumulating. Future Irish governments will have to pay back these bond-based borrowings. Taxpayers now face a generation of repayment. This debt, rather than the deficit, is the real fiscal challenge facing the Irish government and its partners within the euro-area.

To read an extended version of this article, log on to Oxford Analytica's website.

Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar-experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information, please visit here.

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Saturday, September 4, 2010

Banks leave some customers in 'dire poverty'



High Street banks have been accused of leaving some customers in "dire poverty" after taking money out of their accounts without permission.

Credit cards 
Setting off typically sees banks move between £100 and £200, usually to pay off a credit card account
Banks can move cash between different accounts belonging to the same person, and only have to tell them afterwards.

The practice, known as "setting off", typically involves banks moving money from a current account to pay off a credit card account which is overdrawn.

Citizens Advice says it has seen an 80% rise in inquiries about such transfers.

It is not illegal for banks to move money in this way. They only have to tell the customer after they have done it.

"Setting off" typically involves banks moving sums of between £100 and £200, usually to pay off a credit card account.

For many people that can actually be helpful, as it will save them interest charges.


“Start Quote

I have no money for food, let alone for other essentials like washing materials”
End Quote John Gates
 
But for others, particularly those who receive benefits, it can cause serious hardship.

£3 a day
 
John Gates, from Brixton in south London, has a £4,000 debt on his credit card.

He relies on housing benefit and Job Seeker's Allowance for his income.

On at least four occasions his bank took money out of his current account to put towards the credit card debt. It only informed him afterwards.

After paying for his rent, John says that left him with just £3 a day to live on.

"It's devastating," he says. "It means I go on a forced diet. I have no money for food, let alone for other essentials like washing materials."

Another couple, from Dundee, told the BBC that they were left without enough money to pay for their baby's nappies after their bank also transferred money to a credit card account without their knowledge.

The couple agreed to be interviewed, until their bank apparently offered them a £1,000 payment if they agreed to remain silent.

Bank consolidation
 
Citizens Advice says such cases are not rare. "It's actually leaving people in dire poverty," Sue Edwards from the service told the BBC.

Up to 2% of all bank customers are affected by set-off payments, and the practice has increased markedly in the last four years.


“Start Quote

The onus is on the banks to make sure they treat individuals sympathetically and positively”
End Quote Eric Leenders British Bankers' Association
 
That is partly because of the consolidation of banks, so that where customers used to have accounts in separate banks, they now find those accounts come under a single new owner.

The Lloyd's Banking Group includes Halifax and Bank of Scotland, for example, while RBS includes Natwest.

Sue Edwards says she would ideally like to see the whole practice banned, but because that would require legislation, it would be difficult to achieve.

In the meantime she is asking banks to leave at least £1,000 in people's accounts, to cover basic living costs.
"It wouldn't help everybody," she says, "but it would help more people than at present."

'Beneficial' practice
 
Banks say they are well aware of the problem.

"It can be a big challenge for people," admits Eric Leenders from the British Bankers' Association (BBA).

But he also points out that the practice can be beneficial to customers who have simply forgotten to make a payment.

Such customers could avoid an unarranged overdraft, or arrears on a loan or mortgage.

And he rejects the idea of leaving a minimum of £1,000 in customers' accounts.

"It would be difficult to say a specific amount," he says.

But after the BBA published extra guidance to the lending code in March this year, Eric Leenders is promising that banks will be more considerate towards customers.

"The onus is on the banks to make sure they treat individuals sympathetically and positively," he says. "Banks should make sure there's sufficient left for reasonable living expenses."

The Financial Services Authority, the banking regulator, is currently consulting on its own new guidance on set-off practice.

Among its planned recommendations, it says money should not be taken from joint accounts or where the cash involved has come from a benefit payment or a tax credit.

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