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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Your Ideas To Change The World

Readers offer their solutions to the globe's problems.


Two weeks ago, we published a special report on 25 Ideas To Change The World. Forbes India asked luminaries like microfinance pioneer Muhammad Yunus, Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, philosopher Alain de Botton, designer Milton Glaser and 21 others to pen essays on the topic. You can read all 25 pieces here. But Forbes also asked readers via Facebook (at both the Forbes and Forbes Asia pages) and Twitter to share with us their world-changing ideas. We promised to publish a handful of the suggestions we received.
 
One theme provoked the most responses: musings on global warming, climate change and pollution put forth by biologist George Schaller, activist Bianca Jagger and "skeptical environmentalist" Bjorn Lomborg.

Readers were most passionate--and prolific--about ways we can reduce our impact on the environment, particularly in light of the Gulf Oil spill. Here are a few of the most thoughtful comments.
 
I agree that attempting to arbitrarily raise the price of carbon fuels to discourage consumption hasn't worked. I don't think it's rational or fair to cut the existing lifelines of cheap carbon-based fuels today to developing countries and inhibit them from creating a more prosperous future. As Tom Friedman suggests, we need a "Million Manhattan Projects" or massive R&D push to discover and develop alternative sources including, wind, solar, nuclear, bio and thermal. Government can play a role in such an ambitious project through leadership, vision and incentives but I'd like to see it led by the private sector. On the consumption side of the equation, I'm encouraged to see industry leaders like Cisco ( CSCO - news - people ), IBM ( IBM - news - people ) and HP taking steps towards a 'smarter' and technologically greener planet through enabling technologies. --BobOlwig, who also has a blog.
Lomborg is correct that previous emissions cutting measures have not been successful. I believe this is due in part to the fact that ordinary citizens in most nations are alienated from these measures and have not been inspired (or forced) to take personal responsibility for the emissions they contribute. I believe the solution to combating climate changes lies in part with our ability to motivate individual consumers to reduce their energy consumption. Creating more individual accountability for energy consumption can be done either by forcing (by increasing prices, which Lomberg claims is not effective) or by motivating. I believe we need to develop a solution which creates motivating factors for consumers to conserve. The way I propose to do this is to use the power of IT to create online systems where consumers can track their consumption of oil & energy (already happening slowly with smart meters) but also create transparency enabling consumers to compare their energy usage to others in their area, in other cities and even in other countries. Such a system would also provide recommendations on ways to cut, and provide insight into the monetary savings and emissions reductions resulting from taking these measures. I believe that this increased level of transparency would inspire people to reduce their consumption, helping to curtail steadily rising emissions until we can fully transition to a clean energy economy. --Jjreif

Our lack of responsibility in dealing with the environment upon which we live--our hubris, in other words--seems likely to bring us down, and sooner rather than later. --mhenriday



We need to appoint global council for climate change, which will look into all matters rationally and come up with a solution [that] will be binding for all countries. And Western countries have to pay upfront charges for whatever pollution they have done in the past. They will not be allowed to get away…I am no climate expert, it is my humble idea. --greenworld2012
 
Another hot-button topic came from cognitive scientist David Livingstone Smith's exploration of the psychology of violence and hate. In his article, Livingstone Smith describes his quest to explore human tendencies both to abhor and commit violent acts by studying the inner workings of the mind. He concludes that one of the ways this dichotomy is able to exist is because, as a form of justification, we dehumanize those people--for example, deem them the same as animals or worse--against whom we are violent. It is only once we address the psychological dimension to violence, Livingstone Smith says, that we can hope to stop it.
Many readers agreed. "The stranger has always been the 'other,'" writes Kevin_Walsh. "It is only a small step to a dangerous 'other,' requiring a protective response. Many politicians use fear for control. Fear and mutual protection are the original basis for the formation of community." Other commenters, however, were more fatalistic. Adds mcgator: "Dehumanization, in my opinion, is also a reaction to others dehumanizing us…Once a group of people dehumanize another, then the reaction almost has to be to return the favor. I feel terrible that this is the case but there is also the natural desire of survival."

As the special report was put together by the staff of Forbes licensee Forbes India, many of the visionaries focused their efforts at problems prevalent in that country. For example, Jockin Arputham of the National Slum Dwellers Federation emphasized poverty alleviation can be achieved by not by government degree but by empowering the poorest people to help themselves.

Agreed commenter Juwaeriah: "In order to see a profound improvement, our awareness programs should be a bit more stimulating. Awareness that has an effect in such a way mentally draws people to take responsibility. For a beneficial outcome the people factor within the slums as well as urban dwellers need to collaboratively take action."

Harvard Business School professor Tarun Khanna wrote about how to tap the talent of the lower quadrants of populations in emerging markets. "The Government of India [is] in [its] first national attempt to issue a national registration identity to all Indians above the age of 16; [it] will also open an account in their names in a bank and deposit a certain amount of seed money for them," writes vksharan. "It is necessary to bring the poor and illiterate in the mainstream economy. One has to give the poor something that they will guard with their life and use to it to climb higher and prosper in their lives."

In response to philosopher Alain de Botton's piece about creating a secular religion,

GeorgePJelliss points out that Botton's ideas are just the latest in a long line of other thinkers who posited alternatives to traditional religious practice. "A religion of mankind has been proposed many times," he writes. "After David came Auguste Comte's Positivism, and in England Robert Owen's Rational Religion, and George Holyoake's Secularism."

Meanwhile, creativetechnologist of Fareham in the U.K. writes that he is eyeing a similar project to Botton: "The idea I am working on is to create a group (not a religion) that takes the good parts of community and morality from religion (and there are a lot of bad parts!) along with real world values and promote regular meetings and discussion." Another commenter, loafingisgood, echoed Socrates in reflecting on the very essence of what religion means to society. "The proper question to ask about a religion is not 'Is it true?' but 'is it useful?'" he points out. "The question 'Is it true?' is certain to be answered at the end of life, so why argue? The question 'Is it useful?' is certainly worth addressing.


In response to the creator of India's National Stock Exchange, Ravi Narain, who wrote here about how technology can revolutionize the markets, economies and finance, Lousulliva thought up a tax-based incentive system to encourage wealthy investors to sink money into U.S. startups. First, the person could write off an investment in certain technologies and industries like renewable energy, and second, the person can deduct from his or her taxes a portion of the profits that result from that investment.
 
"The net effect on this will be a larger tax base as employment falls, [and] increased development capital in the private sector which has always performed better than its government counterparts," Louissulliva writes. "Rules could include but [are] not limited to minimum wages firms who see this kind of capital may pay, [or] a custom 'company" tax' or surtax on its products once profitability is returned."
"Reward those who put their wealth to work through investment," TomBeebe concurs, "and penalize consumption above a certain level. Our tax code should be re-written to this end."

Laxman Thapa agrees that the world's richest people should play a role in its progress, writing on Facebook that "all countries should govern the property of [the] richest persons very carefully, with a need to evaluate and control the tariff they are charging for products to commoners."

Finance was on the forefront of commenter tmd1771's mind, who proposed a system to combat part of the real estate crisis in the U.S.: "What are we spending (have we spent already?) as a country on the various attempts to have trial mortgages refinanced, to administer short sales and foreclosures, to maintain bank-owned real estate? Would it not be expedient to create a fund--equally funded by both federal and bank interests from the money saved by not administering--that compensates for, say, a 20% principle reduction for all home mortgages?"

Some readers were more creative. Jessica Lynn, who wrote via Facebook message, was inspired to think of a more down to earth, world-changing idea. "I'd sure love to make some changes starting right in my own community!" she writes. "I dream of starting a girls' youth group, teaching young ladies how to be confident, independent, self-sufficient and that they can do anything they set their minds to."

Melvin Wizamgee wrote on Forbes' Facebook page that meditation would help change the consciousness and awareness of our leaders. Carmelita Omli says the world should eliminate visa requirements, while Carl Wayne Hardeman believes a cheap way to desalinate sea water could help solve water shortage problems. Ajduggal suggests adopting English as a universal language.

Forbes wishes everyone the best of luck in turning all of these ideas into action!

Hana R. Alberts,
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2010 FIFA World Cup Kicks Off Summer Scams

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Some call it soccer. Some call it football. No matter what you term the game, the effects of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the most widely-viewed sporting event across the globe, can be seen all around the world — and around the Web — following the kickoff in June.

A growing trend seen by online security experts is for scammers to take advantage of the latest breaking news and major worldwide events to distribute malware and, unfortunately, the World Cup, which will be in full swing until mid July, is a prime opportunity for cyber criminals to do just that.

Since the games began this summer, the cyber scams have been kicking off in full force, with reports of sophisticated World Cup-related malware scams, increases in spam themed around to games, and other malicious online ploys.

Cyber criminals know that they can exploit popular international events to lure victims through various types of social engineering tactics. The World Cup is a prime target due to its prestige and the amount of interest it draws from fans around the world,” says Andrew Browne, head of Lavasoft Malware Labs.

How can you avoid becoming a victim of an attack? Lavasoft Malware Labs' analysts have compiled a list of five eminent online security risks surrounding the World Cup — and specific steps you can take to stay safe. Read on to learn more.
  1. Spam with malicious attachments. Be wary of unsolicited World Cup-related messages with an attachment, particularly if the attached file is a PDF. One of the latest PDF attacks took advantage of an Adobe Reader vulnerability that was recently patched. “Check that all applications and programs are patched and up-to-date. Turn on Windows automatic updates and make sure to have the latest security patches from Microsoft installed,” Malware Labs says.
  2. Targeted phishing ploys. There has been a deluge of the following themes in World Cup-related phishing messages: refunds, tickets sales and lotteries, accommodations, travel, and team merchandise. “If you receive an unsolicited message, delete it without opening,” Malware Labs says.
  3.  SEO poisoning. Cyber scammers are poisoning search engine results using World Cup-related headlines and videos to lead to malicious sites in an attempt to push rogue (fake) security software and other types of malware. “Check all URL's carefully before clicking on them, and be especially mindful of only using trusted sites during this time,” Malware Labs says.
  4.  Application downloads. With so many viewers planning to watch the games online, malware purveyors can be expected to capitalize on ways to infect users looking to download media players. “Vet any applications that allow you to stream World Cup content,” Malware Labs says.
  5.  Legitimate sites serving malware. Malicious code can be hacked into vulnerable, legitimate websites in order to infect users. Legitimate World Cup-related sites are attractive targets for cybercriminals. “Make sure that you have core protection on your PC (anti-virus, anti-spyware, and firewall). Consider using an alternate browser, like Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox, rather than Internet Explorer. If you use Firefox, install the NoScript plug-in for Firefox to intercept potentially malicious scripts (http://noscript.net),” Malware Labs says.
The target of these types of social engineering attacks is the computer user, where infection occurs by the person making an interactive choice. We hope that sports fan watching the games online from their home or office — in addition to having anti-malware protection on their PC's — pay close attention to the types of threats that we anticipate will be prevalent so they have a better understanding of what not to click, download, or respond to,” Browne says.

Inflation or Deflation?

Martin Feldstein

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 CAMBRIDGE – The investors that I talk to these days are not sure whether to worry more about future inflation in the United States or about future deflation. The good news is that the answer – for at least the next few years – is that investors should worry about “neither.”

America’s high rate of unemployment and the low rates of capacity utilization imply that there is little upward pressure on wages and prices in the US. And the recent rise in the value of the dollar relative to the euro and the British pound helps by reducing import costs.

Those who emphasize the risk of inflation often point to America’s enormous budget deficit. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the country’s fiscal deficit will average 5% of GDP for the rest of the decade, driving government debt to 90% of GDP, from less than 60% of GDP in 2009. While those large fiscal deficits will be a major problem for the US economy if nothing is done to bring them down, they need not be inflationary.

Sustained budget deficits crowd out private investment, push up long-term real interest rates, and increase the burden on future taxpayers. But they do not cause inflation unless they lead to excess demand for goods and labor. The last time the US faced large budget deficits, in the early 1980’s, inflation declined sharply because of a tight monetary policy. Europe and Japan now have both large fiscal deficits and low inflation.

The inflation pessimists worry that the government will actually choose a policy of faster price growth to reduce the real value of the government debt. But such a strategy can work only in countries where the duration of the government’s debt is long and the interest rate on that debt is fixed. That is because an increase in the inflation rate causes interest rates on new debt to rise by an equal amount. The resulting higher interest payments add to the national debt, offsetting the erosion of the real value of the existing debt caused by the higher inflation.

In the current situation, the US cannot reduce the real value of its government debt significantly by indulging in a bout of inflation, because the average maturity on existing debt is very short – only about four years. And the projected fiscal deficits imply that the additional debt that will be issued during the next decade will be as large as the total stock of debt today. So raising inflation is no cure for the government’s current debt or future deficits.

Those who worry about deflation note that the US consumer price index has not increased at all in the past three months. Why won’t that continue and feed on itself – as it has in Japan – as consumers delay spending in anticipation of even lower prices in the future? And doesn’t Japan’s persistent deflation since the early 1990’s also show that, once it begins, deflation cannot be reversed by a policy of easy money or fiscal deficits?

But the recent weakness in US prices is very different from the situation that prevails in Japan. Zero inflation for the past three months has been a one-time event driven by the fall in energy prices. The other broad components of the consumer price index have increased in recent months, and the consumer price index is up about two percentage points over the past 12 months.

Moreover, surveys of consumer expectations show that US households expect prices to rise at more than 2% in both the coming year and the more distant future. That expected inflation rate is consistent with the difference in interest rates between ordinary US government bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. With such expectations, consumers have no reason to put off purchases.

A second reason for relatively low inflation in recent years has been a temporary fall in the cost of production. As firms shed workers during the economic downturn, output fell more slowly. The resulting rise in output per worker, together with slow wage growth, reduced unit labor costs. That process is now coming to an end as employment rises.

So the good news is that the possibility of significant inflation or deflation during the next few years is low on the list of economic risks faced by the US economy and by financial investors.

But, while inflation is very likely to remain low for the next few years, I am puzzled that bond prices show that investors apparently expect inflation to remain low for ten years and beyond, and that they also do not require higher interest rates as compensation for the risk that the fiscal deficit will cause real interest rates to rise in the future.

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