The inner circle

By T SELVA

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There are designs that can guide us towards happiness.

MANDALAS are powerful signs that represent both the inner and outer worlds of our mind, body and spirit.

The sacred art tells a story that we can follow into the peaceful inner centre of ourselves and leads us to a deeper understanding of our relationship with the space we occupy.

Amazed by the messages the masterful designs carry and the influence they have, I made a visit to the award-winning Tibetan Mandala Thanka Painting School in Kathmandu during my recent visit to Nepal.

Mandalas are one of the oldest holy art forms known to humanity; the basic design, the circle and centre, represents completeness.

An artist at the Mandala Thanka Painting School in Kathmandu working on a peace mandala.
 

The designs can help guide any person seeking happiness and fulfilment because they assist the seeker to wholeness and contentment.

Mandalas are also available as part of Vasthu Sastra, and one of the most powerful is the Vasthu Purusha Mandala comprising the mathematical and diagrammatic basis for generating designs.

Purusha refers to energy, power, soul or cosmic man and mandala is the generic name for any plan or chart which symbolically represents the cosmos.

There was complete stillness when I stepped into the Mandala Thanka Painting School in Thamel; dozen artists were working on patterns, forms, colours and shapes on silk fabrics.

Experts say mandalas are linked to psychology and they are seen to represent a journey from one state of awareness to another. Each drawing is a significant symbol of that journey.

The outer border reflects the psychological boundary that separates oneself from the outer world and all the contents of the mandala lead the viewer onwards and inwards to the centre.

The message from the drawing is that we all have the natural urge within ourselves to search out the centre of our own being.

In meditative mode, the artists display their creative process which is itself a unique method of self-expression. The artists may experience a feeling of relief and a sense of peace as the pattern comes together and “works” within the circle.

The secret in creating a masterpiece or meditating on each one is allowing fragmented parts of our psyche to be healed. I had a profound experience at the school. For hours, I watched the artists’ subconscious minds creating prosperity, longevity and protection mandalas.

The mandala can take any form. There are two paths that you can follow in creating your own mandala.

The first is the more traditional way which follows specific rules and procedures. This is how mandalas are created throughout the Buddhist world. According to the system, if you sit and follow the elaborate steps accurately, you will create an image of the perfect balance you are seeking and this can bring you closer to your inner self.

The second method is more spontaneous and less structured. It involves picking up a pen and simply drawing. This method is useful for giving you a window into your inner self through what you create so that you can begin to see how you need to heal.

The very act of drawing a mandala may be enough to bring you to a place of peace and harmony.
Each shape of the mandala carries a meaning.

• ·A circle is the symbol of wholeness and eternity.
• ·A line that is straight and hard represents repression and indecision.
• ·A cross symbolises two forces within you and the centre displays balance in a harmonious world.
• ·A spiral is a symbol of change and rebirth.
• ·A crescent is associated with the moon and speaks of unconscious and instinctive powers.
• ·A triangle represents the three aspects of yourself: mind, body and spirit.
• ·A square represents stability, security and solid foundation.
• ·A star indicates the brilliant signs of hope and encourages you not to give up.

I returned home with a variety of mandalas. They are not only beautiful with their intricate designs but they also give me a strong sense of inspiration, healing and self-discovery.

* Chief News Editor T. Selva has spent years researching and writing about the ancient Indian science of construction, better known as ‘Indian feng shui’. He is the first disciple of 7th generation Vasthu Sastra Master Yuvaraj Sowma from Chennai, India.

The Star does not give any warranty on accuracy, completeness, usefulness, fitness for any particular purpose or other assurances as to the opinions and views expressed in this column.
The Star disclaims all responsibility for any losses suffered directly or indirectly arising from reliance on such opinions and views.

Nuclear Reactors in China, a difference & safer too!

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A Different Kind of Nuclear Reactor in China
 
Rather than using fuel rods encased in water as in most reactors, engineers in China are building pebble-bed reactors that use billiard ball-size fuel spheres known as pebbles. Amassing these pebbles inside the reactor creates nuclear fission, which heats a gas. The gas in turn heats water into steam, driving a turbine. The reactor core consists of 420,000 of these fuel spheres, and every 15 seconds one is removed and replaced by another one. Experts say these reactors offer a safer nuclear alternative.

China can guarantee nuclear power plants safety: official

(Xinhua)

BEIJING - An official overseeing nuclear safety in China has said that the safety of the country's nuclear power facilities is guaranteed, while reaffirming its goal of developing nuclear power as a clean energy source.

"There is a guarantee for the safety of China's nuclear power facilities and (China) will not abandon (its nuclear power plan) for fear of slight risks," said Tian Shujia in response to reports that China will become more prudent toward developing nuclear power.

Tian, director of two nuclear safety centers under the Ministry of Environmental Protection, made the remarks in an interview with the People's Daily.

He said there are strict laws, regulations, and technical standards which govern site selection, design, construction, testing, operation, and retirement of nuclear power plants in China. He added that these codes are stringently enforced by the Chinese government.

China drew up these codes by taking developed countries' nuclear standards and the safety recommendations of the International Atomic Energy Agency into full account, he said.

China took lessons from previous nuclear power accidents and adopted time-tested technology in designing and building its nuclear power plants, he added.

According to Tian, no notable defects have been found in China's seven operational nuclear power plants, and the safety statistics for most of these plants are higher than the global average.

In addition, China has an emergency-response mechanism in place for its nuclear power plants, he said.

Tian's interview was the latest official remark on nuclear safety in China after a quake-triggered explosion led to radioactive leakage at a Japanese nuclear power plant earlier this month.

One day after the deadly quake jolted Japan, Vice Minister of Environmental Protection Zhang Lijun said that China would not change its plans for developing nuclear power.

Although China suspended its approval process for new nuclear power stations on March 16, officials have not indicated any possible suspension of the national nuclear energy plan set in the country's development plan for the next five years.

Under the 12th Five-Year Plan approved by China's top legislature on March 14, China will launch new nuclear energy projects with a combined generative capacity of 40 million kilowatts.

In the interview, Tian said nuclear energy, as a form of clean energy, is a necessary choice for China if the country will meet its 2020 goal. Currently, non-fossil fuels account for 8 percent of China's total energy consumption.

China plans to have 66 nuclear power plants by 2020 with a total generating capacity of 66 million kilowatts, which will account for 6 percent of China's total power capacity, according to Tian.

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China is building reactors touted as safer

SHIDAO, China • While engineers at Japan's stricken nuclear power plant struggle to keep its uranium fuel rods from melting down, engineers in China are building a radically different type of reactor that some experts say offers a safer nuclear alternative.

The technology will be used in two reactors here on a peninsula jutting into the Yellow Sea, where the Chinese government is expected to let construction proceed even as the world debates the wisdom of nuclear power.

Rather than using conventional fuel rod assemblies of the sort leaking radiation in Japan, each packed with nearly 400 pounds of uranium, the Chinese reactors will use hundreds of thousands of billiard-ball-size fuel elements, each cloaked in a protective graphite layer.

The coating moderates the pace of nuclear reactions and is meant to ensure that if the plant had to be shut down in an emergency, the reaction would slowly stop on its own and not lead to a meltdown.

The reactors will also be cooled by nonexplosive helium gas instead of depending on a steady source of water — a critical problem with the damaged reactors at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi power plant. And unlike those reactors, the Chinese reactors are designed to gradually dissipate heat on their own, even if coolant is lost.

If the new plants here prove workable, China plans to build dozens more of them in coming years.

So-called pebble-bed reactor technology is not new. Germany, South Africa and the United States have all experimented with it.

Germany led the initial research into pebble-bed nuclear reactors and built its own research version in the 1960s. That reactor closed after an accident, caused by a jammed fuel pebble that released traces of radiation — coincidentally nine days after the Chernobyl accident in 1986, at a time of greatly increased worry about nuclear safety. Xu said China, learning from the German mishap, had designed its reactors to keep the pebbles from jamming.

South Africa tried hard until last summer to build a pebble-bed reactor but ran into serious cost overruns.

In the United States, the federal government and companies have spent heavily on pebble-bed research. But there has been little appetite for actually building new nuclear reactors.

But as in many other areas of alternative energy, including solar panels and wind turbines, China is now taking the lead in actually building the next-generation nuclear energy technology. The government has paid for all of the research and development costs for the two pebble-bed reactors being built here, and will cover 30 percent of the construction costs.

"China epitomizes the stark choices that we face globally in moving away from current forms of coal-based electricity," said Jonathan Sinton, the top China specialist at the International Energy Agency in Paris. 

"Nuclear is an essential alternative" to coal, he said. "It's the only one that can provide the same quality of electricity at a similar scale in the medium and long term."

Despite Japan's crisis, China still plans to build as many as 50 nuclear reactors over the next five years — more than the rest of the world combined. Most of this next wave will be of more conventional designs.

But if the pebble-bed approach works as advertised, and proves cost effective, China hopes it can eventually adopt the technology on a broad scale to make nuclear power safer and more feasible as it deals with the world's fastest-growing economy and the material expectations of its 1.3 billion people.

Western environmentalists are divided on the safety of pebble-bed nuclear technology.

Thomas Cochran, the senior scientist on nuclear power for the Natural Resources Defense Council, an American group, said such reactors would probably be less dangerous than current nuclear plants, and might be better for the environment than coal-fired plants.

"Overall, in terms of design," he said, "it would appear to be safer, with the following caveat: The safety of any nuclear plant is not just a function of the design but also of the safety culture of the plant."

The executives overseeing construction of the new Chinese reactors say that engineers are already being trained to oversee the extensively computerized controls for the plant, using a simulator at a test reactor that has been operating for a decade near Beijing, apparently without mishap.

But Greenpeace, the international environmentalist group, opposes pebble-bed nuclear reactors, questioning whether any nuclear technology can be truly safe. Wrapping the uranium fuel in graphite greatly increases the volume of radioactive waste eventually requiring disposal, said Heinz Smital, a Greenpeace nuclear  technology specialist in Germany. But he said the waste was far less radioactive per ton than spent uranium fuel rods — one of the big sources of trouble at the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

As the world turns

WHAT ARE WE TO DO  By TAN SRI LIN SEE-YAN


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I am back. Missed my last column as I had to put in a “bionic” spine on March 6. Technically, I underwent major surgery to resolve degenerative lumbar kypho-scoliosis causing severe multilevel spinal stenosis. Simply put, I had to fuse lumbar vertebrae #L2, L3, L4, L5 and S1 (the secrum).

The outcome: I now have 10 screws at my lower back and these are held together by two 7-inch titanium rods. It took 7-hours of surgery, so I now have sort of a “bionic” lower spine. That does sound awesome but I am fine walking and sleeping without pain; a trade-off I assumed in exchange for a rather stiff and inflexible lower back. No more golf for me, I am afraid.

The past week was not all bad. On March 19, I was conferred the Honorary Doctorate in Economics by Universiti Sains Malaysia, at which I served as Pro-Chancellor for the past 10 years (2000-2010). It was an honour I deeply appreciated.

Then on March 23, I was awarded the Brand Laureate Brand Personality Award 2010-2011 for achievements in economics and finance. That's rather thrilling since I have also been associated with (sitting on the boards of directors mainly) some of the best Malaysian and foreign brands over the past 17 years: Jobstreet, Mid-Valley MegaMall, Genting and Resorts World, Silverlake, Top Glove, F&N and Coca-Cola, Great Eastern Life, Straits Trading, and Cabot of Boston.

State of the world

Just as economic expansion is stabilising in the long-troubled US and eurozone, concerns are now emerging on the economic health of Asia and the Middle-East. The unfolding disaster in Japan following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, along with the continuing turmoil in the Middle-East, have raised new concerns and uncertainties over economic prospects in these regions, including their impact on food and commodities' prices, especially oil.

As events turned, the US economy now appears healthier, with growth slowly gathering strength and consumers cautiously borrowing again. But, it's still a sluggish recovery with high unemployment at 8.9%, albeit its lowest in nearly two years, and a struggling housing market.

Let's face it. US households are still carrying far too much debt. Relative to income, families' debt today is nearly twice as high as in 1980s. Borrowing relative to disposable income after tax today stands at 120%. To return to normal (70%), debt would need to be cut by some US$6 trillion (or 45% of GDP).

The deleveraging process still has ways to go. Much is said about the bounce that could come from improving profitability of corporate America, if the cash finds its way into increased capital spending and employment. With companies still uncertain about the future, that's not happening. So like it or not, the anaemic recovery may yet require another jolt of new stimulus. That won't come easy, if at all.

The eurozone, on the whole, will see very moderate growth certainly lower than the United States, according to World Bank which talks of 2011 as a year of deceleration. In Europe, you get a mixture of some growth in Germany and France, and very soft recoveries (if at all) in debt-ridden Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Spain. The risks lie in the impact of continuing emphasis to contain inflation, while helping to keep the region's most indebted nations afloat.

The United Kingdom, in the midst of austerity, is now struggling. With markets unnerved by further rating downgrades on Greek and Spanish debt, the effective capacity of the European rescue funds has since been bumped up to 500 billion euros (US$700bil), with strings attached to whip eurozone laggards into shape through vigorous economic and fiscal workouts (including putting in law a pledge to get a grip on public debt). The intention is to prevent its sovereign risk woes from spreading beyond Portugal. Despite these steps, markets are not convinced. Europe is seen to continue to muddle and fuddle.

Where does this leave the rest of the world? The World Bank's January outlook talks of emerging and developing countries (EDCs) expanding at nearly twice (6%) the rate of global growth in 2011, and more than double 2.4% expected for high-income nations. Still, the overall pace of growth is not strong enough to give global recovery a solid traction.

Even so, the World Bank talks of “serious tensions and pitfalls persist in the global economy, which in the short-run could derail the recovery to different degrees.” These threats include eurozone financial market crisis, volatile capital flows and rising prices of commodities, especially food and fuel. Alongside are affordability issues, where poverty impacts could intensify with dire consequences for social and political stability.

Impact of oil

But the world has since changed with new concerns coming from Asia and the Middle-East. The Arab world has seen unprecedented political unrest as its people sought to bring down long-standing regimes, resulting of late in a new “war” in Libya.

As the region is a crucial supplier of oil, its price assumes a new risk. The world faces the prospect of another bumpy ride if oil prices persist on current levels. This time is more alarming because oil prices are rising out of fear that global supply lines are being disrupted. Not because demand for oil is racing ahead along with the price.

The World Bank says this surge in prices would dent growth in EDCs by 0.2-0.4 percentage points. Overall, this is unlikely to be large enough to derail the strong recovery we now see in EDCs. But a spike to US$150 or even US$200 a barrel would present a serious risk. For March, the price stood at US$90-US$120.

Yet a lot more can still go wrong. As I see it now, consumers can withstand a moderate rise in oil prices. But at anything above US$150, we are in unchartered waters and can cause panic, which in turn could lead to a double-dip recession in the West and high inflation in the East. It's a risk to be taken seriously.

However, oil prices have a firm floor (underpinned by demand) but a soft ceiling because of spreading unrest. If recent rise proves temporary, the world economy can shrug off its effects with relative ease. If the price rise persists, outlook could darken quickly.

MENA

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) produce more than one-third of world's oil. The spread of unrest across the region threatens widespread supply disruption. Sure, the oil market has many buffers today: government stockpiles, high commercial stocks and Saudi Arabia's ample spare capacity to pump more.

Yet, more disruption can't be ruled out. The joker in the pack could be Saudi Arabia which bears many characteristics that had fuelled unrest elsewhere, including a large pool of disillusioned youth. Despite spending US$36bil to “buy-off” dissent, the Kingdom continues to face demand for reform.

Furthermore, a second threat could come from gradual dwindling of spare capacity. All points to a continuing high premium for oil.

Today, the world is less vulnerable to damage from higher oil, but not immune. The conventional rule of thumb is a 10% rise in oil price will cut world growth by one-quarter of one percentage point. The World Bank puts global growth in 2011 at 3.3% (3.9% in 2010), but its impact on inflation, especially in EDCs is much more serious.

The United States, facing low inflation now, sits rather comfortably. Even so, US consumer confidence fell sharply once petrol went pass US$3 a gallon. It's now at US$3.38. But Europe, already getting more unsettled with inflationary expectations, could over-react and tighten too far which can push its still-fragile economies back into recession.

The worse hit will be EDCs, many of them (India, Brazil and China) are facing problems of high inflation and rising inflationary expectations. Most serious is impact on the poor which has led many governments to subsidise both food and fuel. This has already put enormous pressure on the budgets of India and Brazil.

But the biggest damage lies in MENA itself, where subsidies on food and fuel are increasingly used to quell unrest. Fuel importers, such as Egypt, face enormous challenges in bankruptcy from spiralling high oil prices and ever-growing subsidies. At worst, the risks are circular with dearer oil and political uncertainty feeding on each other. So the world remains shakier than we all realise.

And then, there's Japan

As of now, the Japanese situation appears to be under control. There has been disruptions, of course, but not so serious as to cause real difficulties for the world economy as a result of earthquake and tsunami. Nevertheless, two areas of some concern remain. The first has to do with effects of nuclear plants which contribute up to 30% of total electricity generated in Japan.

In the event of catastrophe, the shortage of electricity and rolling power outages would adversely affect economic activities, which in turn could lead to cut-backs in imports and exports. These have attendant effects on other economies, especially in Asia.

The second deals with fears over Japanese supply chain disruptions. Some multinationals have begun to halt output due to shortage of parts from Japan. Especially hit are high-tech, automotive and steel industries, including electronic and raw materials for making semiconductors.

For example, Japan accounts for 90% of world's supply of bismaleimide triazine, a key material used in production of printed-circuit boards used in chips for tele-handsets. Japan is also a large suppler of silicon wafers used for semiconductors. It is home to many manufacturers of glass substrates, a key material in making liquid-crystal-display panels used in smart phones, tablet computers and TVs.

These disruptions are already affecting businesses which run “just-in-time” inventory processes with very little slack. Undoubtedly, the short term is likely to see disruptions. Japan is in urgent need to import coal, LNG and oil products to restore energy consumption, but damaged storage tanks, ports and refineries make it difficult to absorb fuel and raw materials foreign suppliers are prepared to rush in. All these would slow auto, technology and ship-building industries worldwide.

Cost of rebuilding has been variously estimated at US$150-US$250bil (1995 Kobe earthquake damage cost US$100bil). The upper end is about 4% of GDP. The government now talks of at least US$200bil. Reconstruction will take years with safer new structures of higher quality. This should begin to boost GDP later this year pushing up further demand for oil even as unrest in MENA raises supply fears. Higher oil prices are always bad news for Asia and the world.

A word on China

China's new economic roadmap sets a low 7% annual growth for 2011-2015; it's expected to grow 8% this year (10.3% in 2010). For the past five years, growth target was 7.5% but actual annual growth was 11.2%. This is intended to signal the government's desire to adjust the economic structure to bridge the wealth gap and to engineer a shift from investment/export-led growth model to one led by its own domestic engine, mainly private consumption.

The accent is on quality of growth, not its speed. Part of restructuring includes building 10 million affordable homes in 2011 and 36 million units in 2011-2015. That's enough to house the combined population of France, Australia and Canada.

My own view is that Chinese officials are convinced a slowdown is already in the works. To rebalance its economy, less weight is being placed on manufacturing and exports, and more in building services and getting domestic spending as the new growth engine. So it's not a matter of whether growth will indeed slacken but when.

Recent empirical work by my friend Barry (Prof Eichengreen of Berkeley) and Shin (Korea University) concluded that fast-growing economies slow down when per capita income reached US$16,500. China will be there in 2014 if it continues growing 10% a year. Generally, slow growth comes sooner when:

• a higher ratio of elderly people is active in the labour force

• manufacturing's share of labour exceeds 20%

• its currency is undervalued

• imbalances and excesses in manufacturing exports eventually force a deceleration (Korea in 90s).

 China displays all these symptoms. So if there is a lesson from history, is China's slackening growth really imminent? Certainly that's what China's new vision is. I am reminded of what Edison once said: “Vision without execution is a hallucination”.

Former banker, Dr Lin is a Harvard-educated economist and a British Chartered Scientist who now spends time writing, teaching and promoting the public interest. Feedback is most welcome; email: starbizweek@thestar.com.my.