Factors underpinning bullish outlook for gold

Shining bright: A saleswoman showing gold bangles at a shop in Kolkata, India. The escalation in geopolitical risks in the Middle East may see the precious metal take centre stage this week. — Reuters

PETALING JAYA: There is a growing bullish outlook for gold as a safe and stable investment given the bias to shift towards monetary easing by major central banks, rising geopolitical tensions, aggressive purchasing by central banks and increasing global debt concerns.

OCBC Bank foreign exchange strategist Christopher Wong said while investors have adjusted expectations regarding the timing and extent of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) initial rate cut, the consensus that a cut is the next step remains firm.

“The prospects of global monetary easing, central banks’ sustained purchase of gold and geopolitical concerns remained the key drivers underpinning gold’s bullish outlook,” he told StarBiz.

Wong noted the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada are expected to enter a phase of monetary easing.

“This synchronous easing potential should continue to boost the appeal of gold,” he added.

However, from a positioning and market dynamics perspective, Wong advised caution due to the risk of a near-term retracement in gold prices.

This caution stems from the rapid increase in gold prices in the short recent period and the currently stretched long positions in gold.

That was evident at last Friday’s price action when it hit a high of US$2,431 a troy ounce before profit-taking saw gold settle at US$2,343 for the week.

The escalation in geopolitical risks in the Middle East over the weekend could see the precious metal take centre stage this trading week as investors look for safe havens.

Wong’s medium-term forecast is for gold to rise to US$2,435 per troy ounce by the first half of 2024.

Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing director Stephen Innes pointed out unusual circumstances for gold market makers.

He said despite the 10-year US real yields reaching around 2% – the highest since the Lehman crisis – gold prices have continued to climb, setting record highs in 2024.

“Given that gold doesn’t pay any interest, it should be facing competition and pressure. However, despite this, gold has hit record after record high in 2024 and is far from being down and out,” he said.

Innes pointed out that the primary appeal of gold lies in its role as an inflation hedge.

“If you’re not a gold bug, the yellow metal has one primary appeal: it serves as an inflation hedge,” he added.

With no internal rate of return, he said its value often hinges on its ability to preserve purchasing power in times of rising prices

However, regardless of the inflation trends, Innes expected the Fed to cut rates.

This expectation is supported by the US national debt’s rapid increase, with much of this debt financed through short-term instruments.

“The US national debt is rising by US$1 trillion every 100 days. By the time Americans head to the polls in November, it’s expected to reach US$37 trillion. But most of this is getting funded in less than one-year tenor,” he explained.

Innes further explained that the US Treasury has substantially increased its issuance of treasury bills with maturities of less than one year.

The strategy has decreased the average maturity of its debt, making it more sensitive to short-term interest rate changes.

“As a result, this Treasury Twist encourages the Fed to reduce interest rates to ease front-end volatility,” he added.

Innes suggests that initially, the Fed’s interest rate cuts might not directly target reducing the Treasury’s borrowing costs.

However, he said eventually monetary policy could pivot towards facilitating this fiscal largesse.

Ultimately, Innes expects in the near to medium term, the Fed might find itself compelled to assist in managing the US Treasury’s interest payments by reducing rates – a policy shift that could continue to bolster gold’s appeal.

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Luno on a growth trajectory

 

PETALING JAYA: The four-year cyclic bitcoin halving event and fresh liquidity, especially institutional money, have driven the cryptocurrency market to fresh highs this year upon gaining more acceptance as an alternative asset class, albeit being a far more volatile one.

But as the drums of war got louder in the Middle East early Sunday, bitcoin was the first to reflect investor sentiment, falling some 9.9% or US$6,714 to a low of US$61,231 before fresh buying saw it trading at US$64,246 as at press time.

The fresh buying is a clear indicator that the crypto market is maturing, said Scarlett Chai, country manager of Luno Malaysia, as it now has made its way to institutional investors via centralised asset fund managers from being an asset class that was previously exclusive to the decentralised community.

The halving event, which is due to happen this week on April 19-20, could also provide price support. Historical data has shown that price corrections typically happen two years after every bitcoin halving, as this trend has been visible in the past three halvings.

However, this cycle looks very different to previous cycles with bitcoin reaching all-time highs near the halving for the first time in its history and with prospects of war as a headwind or even a tailwind.

“It is difficult to ascertain the scale of the upcoming halving’s impact on bitcoin prices. We need to understand that the crypto market, specifically bitcoin, is now different following the inflow of institutional investors. This new liquidity via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) might put the market on a new course,” Chai told StarBiz.

She added that with gold recently breaking its all-time high and should bitcoin be viewed as digital gold, they might share a similar momentum.

Scarlett Chai, Luno Malaysia Country Manager

For some the fresh liquidity, estimated at US$13.8bil year-to-date, and the halving event could be more oxygen to a bubble, which could all end badly with systemic implications to the global financial system.

“The anticipated halving and the increased cash inflow, particularly after the ETF, has driven up cryptocurrency prices. There is little doubt that there is a bubble as there is no intrinsic or underlying value.

“This may simply be a modern version of the Tulip mania,” warned Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, professor of finance at the International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance.

Nevertheless, with cryptocurrency gaining traction in Malaysia, Luno has recently launched its staking option on its trading platform.

Chai said the latest feature on its mobile application platform called staking was something its Malaysian clients had been asking for.

“We are the first regulated exchange to bring staking here. We launched last year and it was a long-awaited feature for the local market. Staking using ethereum is now available and we know it is suitable for the current Malaysian market,” she says.

Chai explains staking is locking up a certain amount of cryptocurrency, in this case ethereum, on the platform while allowing it to participate in a blockchain network. This also means that one’s stake grows and rewards are compounded.

“It’s just like having an asset, you can either hold on to it or lock it up so it grows. Locking it up will help the digital system, which is a computer-based network, become more secure and functional,” she said.

While the coins are being staked, users cannot sell or remove their coins but Luno will allow them to “unstake” from their wallets.

Chai added it took some time for this feature to be approved by the regulatory boards and the group is looking at launching a second coin for this feature.

“We are on track for the launch of a second coin and we believe staking should be made available for more asset classes. With all our features, we aim to make it safe and simple to participate in the cryptocurrency industry,” she said.

Luno Malaysia currently offers an instant buy-and-sell option or an exchange programme, both with distinctive features to suit a user’s risk appetite for investment.

Chai said there are 11 digital assets that have been approved by regulators and using the platform has been made easier and more seamless.

“Users can now use Touch ‘n Go, bank transfers or even FPX to choose which coin they would like to transact from as low as RM1. Then we have the exchange, which is for more sophisticated users, those that know how to read charts to study pricing and are familiar with market trends,” she said.

Chai points out that despite initial concerns on data privacy and the volatility of the cryptocurrency world, the industry has been very popular in Malaysia.

“So far, we’ve got some 840,000 users on the platform. Luno has been around since 2015 but in 2019, we relaunched ourselves in the market under the purview of the Securities Commission’s (SC) guidelines,” she said.

This means there are hard guidelines on how the platform can operate and Luno is answerable to authorities should any concerns arise.

Chai stated last year was a strong learning curve for the group as it showed the crucial role it could play in allowing users to invest in digital assets.

“It became important for us to address and create awareness on scams or “too-good-to-be-true” offerings. And because of this financial literacy is really vital,” she said.

Luno Malaysia has participated in various community events like exhibitions and campaigns where the need to create a better understanding on digital wealth management comes up.

“We look forward to participating in more national scam campaigns with financial institutions and such for educational purposes. We have even been in universities to speak to students and how they can avoid scams,” Chai said.

The most active group on the platform are aged between 30 and 49, Chai notes, because they have higher disposable income, but Luno has seen an increase in downloads and participation by those in the 20 to 29-year age range.

“This is their domain, and Luno targets audiences that are interested in investment and are retail-focused. In the next couple of years, we hope to hit one million users on our platform,” she said.

Meanwhile, Chai noted digital wealth management is just another form of investing, same like bonds or stocks.

“We are moving into an era where there is a blend of traditional finance and digital assets, as more markets worldwide regulate crypto and are catering to people who want to diversify more,” she said.

One piece of advice Chai gives is always start small, make yourself aware of what’s out there and be ready to put in what you can afford to lose.

“With every form of investment, the risk of losing is there. People adjust their portfolios to meet their personal strategy. Never go into an investment without a strategy, because then, you’d be basing it on your emotions and that is not how it should be done,” she advised.

In 2024, Luno users can look forward to more coins being added on the platform, subject to regulatory approval of course.

“We added two coins last year and we are looking at adding another five. We work closely in collaboration with the SC and will continue on that journey with them as we bring more offerings to people in Malaysia,” Chai said.

On top of that, with the aim to maintain the highest levels of security, Luno has introduced monthly proof of reserves reports.

Through this process, the exchange ensures each customer’s assets are maintained on a one-to-one ratio on the platform, illustrating that customer-stored digital assets match with the balance in their Luno wallets.

Chai said as there was no regulatory obligation to publish proof of reserve reports, the group saw an important step to build trust in the crypto space.

“Luno’s 12 million global customers – with over 840,000 of those in Malaysia – can be rest assured that their wallets do contain the crypto stated.”

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Stay Active at Your Desk: Tips for Everyday Work

 

Regular exercise is important – at work as well as in your private life. While this may sound easy, most office workers know from experience that staying active is an important habit that gets quickly forgotten. The consequences of a lack of movement can be severe: from unpleasant back pain to tension in the shoulders and neck. There is some good news though: It doesn't have to come to that. Here are a few techniques you can try to stay active while at your desk. 

What happens if you don’t move while at your desk? 

Our bodies were built to move. Staying active means that all our joints, muscles, bones and organs can function properly. Likewise, our bodies are not designed to sit for hours at a time: A serious drawback when so much of everyday office life is dominated by the time we spend in our chairs. 

Sitting is not inherently unhealthy, especially if you’ve got an ergonomic office chair that can bring your body to the correct sitting position. However, if you don't get enough exercise in the office, sitting in front of the computer screen for a long time could lead to issues in your general health. In some cases, a lack of movement at the desk even has serious consequences, including the following: 

• Back pain is now considered as normal “wear and tear” for office workers. Sitting for a long time puts strain on the spine without relieving it. In the worst cases, it can even lead to slipped or herniated discs.
• Bone and muscle loss: Excessive sitting strangles the supply of nutrients to your bones and muscles, which can result in a loss of bone density and muscle mass. Diseases associated with this problem include osteoarthritis (joint wear) and osteoporosis (bone loss).
• Tension: Painful tension in the neck and shoulders is often caused by one-sided strain, a static posture, or a lack of movement between extended periods of sitting. The longer you go without exercise, the more your muscles cramp, and the more the pain intensifies.
• Headaches: Tension in the shoulders and neck isn’t just painful, it can also trigger unwelcome headaches. Naturally, these headaches can stop you from concentrating and performing at your best.
• Cardiovascular diseases: Without regular exercise, your heart may also be affected, with high blood pressure a common side effect. This can be responsible for heart attacks or strokes. 

To stay fit and healthy in the long term, you’ll need to take active steps that counteract the lack of exercise that everyday office life is often responsible for. By including regular exercise in your daily work routine, you ensure that your physical and mental well-being can be maintained or even improved. Here are a few useful tips for getting more exercise at work. 

Staying active at your desk: important points to consider 

If you want to stay active in the office, you need to make sure that your workspace is properly set up for maximum ergonomic benefits. After all, the best workout is only half as effective if your desk height and office chair are causing problems elsewhere. Just a few simple adjustments can reduce the risk of back pain and ensure your exercise is as valuable as it can be.

Sitting and standing at your desk

Do you use your chair more like a lounge recliner? Do you find yourself slipping further and further down the back of your chair as the day goes on? Then maybe it’s time you got a little less used to sitting down all day. Let’s get moving! 

To prevent prolonged periods spent in static positions, you need to choose office furniture that makes movement at your desk as simple as possible. Your first port of call should be an electrically height-adjustable desk, which enables you to work comfortably in both a sitting and standing position. However, working while standing needs a little practice: the perfect switch to a more healthy, dynamic working life doesn't happen overnight! 

Tip: While you are getting used to working while standing, it’s best to limit yourself to short standing units of between 5 and 10 minutes. The rest of your workday should be normal sitting time (although preferably in an ergonomic office chair). These shorter bursts give your body enough time to get used to your new, active daily routine. 

Even if you don't always feel like standing, you can motivate yourself with the knowledge that you’re doing your body a huge favor. That’s because working while standing has a number of advantages for your health: 

• Relief for your back: Sitting for long periods of time every day leads to excessive muscle relaxation, which can become noticeable in your back area when it manifests itself as pain. The solution is simple: when you stand as upright as possible when working, you can strengthen your back and neck in a targeted manner.
• Better circulation: When you sit for a long time, you’ll notice that your legs feel heavy. The reason for this is poor blood circulation. When standing, the blood can circulate much better, which means that your whole body is sufficiently supplied with the oxygen it needs.
• Better breathing: When you stand, your entire upper body is extended, which helps you breathe in and out more deeply. Your lungs can be filled with air without obstacles. On the other hand, when sitting, the body does not take in air as it should.
• Strengthened legs: Working while sitting does not require your leg muscles at all. Over time, this can lead to the muscles gradually wasting (atrophy) because they are not being used regularly. Regular standing prevents muscle wastage in your legs and strengthens them at the same time. 

How to set up your workstation correctly 

An ergonomically optimized, healthy workplace is essential for correctly implementing a beneficial sit-stand cycle in your everyday office life. This means that your office chair and desk must be adjusted correctly. If the desk is too low or too high for standing, an upright posture cannot be achieved, and standing may even have a negative effect. Here are a few guidelines to follow if you want to achieve the ideal chair or table height: 

• Chair: You can tell when your chair is at the correct height when your thighs form a sloping line towards your knees: your knees should then be a little lower than your hips. Additionally, your feet should have good contact with the ground.
• Desk: When configuring your height-adjustable desk, you should choose a height the ensures armrests of the office chair are at the same height as the desk when you are sitting. When standing, the correct height is when your bent arms form a right angle while resting on the tabletop. 

Fit to work: 6 exercises you can do at your desk 

Need inspiration for exercises that benefit your back, neck, shoulders, arms, and legs? Relieving tension and training your body do not have to interrupt your office work too significantly. On the contrary: There are many at-desk exercises that you can master without much effort or disturbance to your routine! 

Of course, exercising at your desk will not be very effective if you don’t do it often enough. Make sure that you try to do these individual mini-workouts several times a week – ideally daily – when working in the office. Here are a few effective exercises for the body parts that are especially at risk when you sit for long periods.

1. Stretch your spine

Back exercises are increasingly popular for office workers. Back pain, an effect of the corona pandemic, is the number one disorder for working people today. However, it’s avoidable: To relieve pressure on the spine, you should always stretch it out well. This effective stretching exercise can be completed while sitting or standing. 

• Get into an upright posture (sitting or standing).
• Bring both your arms above your head, keeping one arm slightly bent.
• Straighten the other arm so that you can feel a stretch.
• Hold this position for a few breaths.
• Switch arms and repeat the exercise.

2. Lift and rotate your shoulders

Alongside back pain, tense shoulders are common among office workers. To relax the muscles in this area, and to keep them relaxed, these two shoulder exercises can prove very beneficial. 

• Raise your shoulders briefly (as in the graphic).
• Hold your shoulders up for a few seconds, then let them fall down again.
• Repeat this process 5-10 times in a row. 

• Sit in a chair without leaning against the back.
• Place both your hands on your shoulders with your elbows pointing outwards.
• Slowly rotate your shoulders.
• Circle your shoulders forward 10 times and then back 10 times.

3. Stretch your neck

Another part of the body that is often affected by tension is the neck. To loosen up the neck muscles, we advise regular stretching while at the office. The following, simple exercise is ideal for your workspace: 

• Raise your right arm above your head.
• Grab your temple with your right hand.
• Bring your chin down to the side of the chest.
• Extend your left arm so that your palm faces away from your body.
• Feel the pull in the neck area.
• Hold this position for about 30 seconds on each side, then switch.

4. Strengthen your arms

Staying active at your desk is not just a question of preventing pain – many are recommended for training your arm and leg muscles. No special equipment is required for this arm exercise—all you need is your desk! Here’s a step-by-step guide to an effective exercise that can strengthen your upper and lower arms: 

• Stand in front of your desk (it should be about waist-high).
• Support yourself with both arms on the desk.
• Step away from the desk as far as you can so that your body is straight.
• Tense your body, slowly lower it down, then bring yourself back up.
• Do these office-friendly push-ups a few times each time you take a break!

5. Strengthen your legs

After sitting for several hours, your legs can start to feel heavy. To give them new lease of life, you’ve got to keep on moving! The following exercise is ideal for reinvigorating your lower body after a long stretch of sitting – particularly the backs of your legs. 

• Place your feet under the desk so that your thighs and lower legs form a 120-degree angle.
• Lift your toes up while pressing your heels firmly into the ground.
• Hold this position for 15 to 20 seconds.
• Do 15 repetitions.

Staying active at your desk is worth the effort

If your joints are feeling rusty from too much sitting, if you want to finally say goodbye to painful tension, or you just want to stay healthy, regular exercise at your desk is essential. Don't worry: with the right office furniture and a little perseverance, our desk exercises will help you feel better at work! 

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