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Tuesday, August 4, 2020

‘It’s the right time to invest’


We found that data availability and transparency in the real estate sector is less than what we were used to when we were working in the financial industry and we are set to change that, ” says Red Angpow co-founder Erhan Azrai.


PETALING JAYA: Even as many consumers are cautious in purchasing high-ticket items in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, industry experts say sale of properties and cars have been rising since June.
Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda) Malaysia national council member Tony Khoo Boon Chuan said property sales had picked up since June, thanks to lower interest rates and the extension of the government’s Home Ownership Campaign (HOC) until 2021.

“No doubt buyers are guarded when buying high-priced products.

“But others who are not affected financially also realise the time is here to buy or invest in a new property, ” he said in an interview.

Apart from the HOC’s 10% discount on the selling price, Khoo said buyers also enjoy incentives such as stamp duty exemption, free legal fees and freebies such as home security and alarm systems, additional cabling, fittings and fixtures.

“There are so many choices with perks and benefits in the market now for buyers.

“This is indeed the right time to invest, ” he said.

HOC is a government initiative in 2019 aimed at supporting homebuyers, and it has been reintroduced in June under the Penjana economic revival plan.

Khoo noted that the government’s exemption of real property gains tax for Malaysians for disposal of up to three properties had made it easy for property sales in the secondary market.

“This will certainly encourage a lot of investors and buyers who are looking to upgrade, ” he said.

In the automotive industry, both new and used cars have seen brisk sales in recent months, with foot traffic at showrooms having increased tremendously.

Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) president Datuk Aishah Ahmad said new car sales improved to 42,000 in June, compared with 22,000 in May, following the government’s announcement to remove the sales tax for certain categories of vehicles.

“Many car companies are offering lots of discounts and attractive hire purchase rates to entice customers, ” she said.

Although many car buyers are still cautious, she said premium cars purchases did not see much problem.

In fact, Aishah said MAA had readjusted the forecast of Malaysia’s total industry volume to 470,000 for this year, versus the earlier forecast of 400,000.

Federation of Motor and Credit Companies Association of Malaysia president Datuk Tony Khor Chong Boon agreed, adding that the used car market had also experienced tremendous growth in July.

“June sales were on par with full recovery following the recovery movement control order.

“July was very encouraging with 37,880 units sold, which is 25% higher than the same month last year, ” he said, adding that it was the highest monthly sales achieved in the last five years.

In contrast, he said used car sales only chalked up 303 units in April, when the usual monthly figure was between 30,000 and 35,000 units.

Khor said several factors contributed to the recent good vibes in the automotive industry, with measures introduced in the government’s economic revival plan shown to work.

“The moratorium has allowed some to have more money to spend, while the sales tax exemption has stimulated sales.

“Some buyers choose to get a car due to concerns about physical distancing and hygiene in public transport, ” he said, adding that used cars costing around RM30,000 were popular.

He noted that brisk sales of used cars resulted in a long waiting time for inspection at Puspakom, with a minimum wait time of at least five to seven days, and even 10 days or more at some locations.

When asked, Khor said it was hard to predict how long the good vibes would last because the real challenge would come when many borrowers are required to pay when the moratorium is lifted beginning October.

“To keep the market and economy stimulated, the government has to periodically come out with relevant measures and policies, ” he said.

Human resource executive CW Lim, who has been househunting for a few months, said he would make use of the discount and offers to buy a house in the Klang Valley.

“With the HOC, I’ll be able to save tens of thousand in downpayment, stamp duty fees and legal fees that could take me years to save up.

“Since my job and industry is not affected much, I hope I will soon own a house through these offers, ” said the 30-year-old from Klang.

Clinic nurse Farisha Azman, 29, who has been commuting to work from Subang Jaya to Shah Alam daily using the train, said she was in the process of buying a new car.

“Not having to worry about distancing on the train gives me peace of mind, ” she said.


Serving property investors’ needs

WITH the property market expected to remain soft over the next few months, tech startupRED ANGPOW Analytics is hopeful that property owners will be knocking on its doors for help to better manage their asset portfolios.

The company does online map-based real estate due diligence, feasibility study and price analytics.

“We foresee asset holders requiring good information to manage their portfolios. Data on past transactions that have been useful will no longer be enough.

“We found that data availability and transparency in the real estate sector is less than what we were used to when we were working in the financial industry and we are set to change that, ” says Red Angpow co-founder Erhan Azrai.

The startup generally has two groups of target clients, which are development-based organisations and individuals who use research to make decisions such as property investors, analysts, researchers, valuers and banks. Red Angpow’s services are not only useful for developers, but also related industries that are supporting real estate.

Erhan notes that clients are becoming savvier and are looking for more opportunities in the soft property market and they will need more relevant data to make their investment decisions.

“After the 1997-1998 financial crisis, the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) was created to provide accurate and timely information on the property market.

“In the current environment, we believe the timing is right for an enhanced service.

“In the longer term, there is a need to increase the efficiency of the real estate market with a lot more data transparency.

“From the work that we have done so far, we saw that a lot of data is actually available, but it is unstructured and comes from multiple sources.

“Before we can compile all this data via an artificial intelligence means, we are doing the very basic first, which is getting the data cleaned, tagged and harmonised in a form that can be used easily by researchers, ” he says.

He adds that ensuring property investors have timely and accurate data has become even more important now as real estate loans make up a sizeable portion of total loans.

As of February 2020, Erhan notes that real estate loans in the banking system stood at RM836bil or 47% of total loans.

“This staggering amount needs better data to manage the portfolio, especially when industries are cutting jobs. A 10% downward correction will affect up to 5% of the total loan portfolio, depending on the age of the loan asset. That’s a huge amount.”

While the movement control order (MCO) has hindered some of its plans, Red Angpow has been fortunate to have raised enough capital to weather the course for the next two years.

“So, we are going to stay the course. The MCO allows us to hunker down and complete our work. We planned to launch a subscription for property analytics dashboard by July. But we are confident that we will hit the ground running once again after the MCO is lifted, ” he says.



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Saturday, August 1, 2020

Global de-dollarisation fast underway; US Printed More Money in One Month Than in Two Centuries, US$ is fast becoming Banana Currency

Changing trend: Looking from the perspective of the US debt, the 22 consecutive months from April 2018 to March 2020 saw global central banks reduce their US debt holdings.



A global trend toward “de-dollarisation” has already begun. The last piece of “load-bearing wall” of the “US Empire State Building” has cracked, in other words.

Global policies for “de-dollarisation” include sharply reducing US debt holdings, dropping US dollar’s status as an anchor currency, increasing non-dollar bulk commodity trade, growing the reserve of non-dollar currencies and ramping up gold’s hedge against the dollar.

Looking from the perspective of the US debt, the 22 consecutive months from April 2018 to March 2020 saw global central banks reduce their US debt holdings.

In March, the US Federal Reserve pledged unlimited quantitative easing, purchasing over US$1 trillion Treasuries within a month.

The Federal Reserve has become the largest receiver of US Treasuries.

In the same month, yields on both one-month and three-month Treasury bills were negative, while the yield for the 10-year Treasury hit below 1% for the first time, according to media reports.

This exemplifies global anticipation of a weaker US economy.

Although the possibility that a small number of foreign investors will increase their holdings of US Treasuries in the short run cannot be ruled out, in the long run international investors will likely reduce their US debt holdings.

The Federal Reserve, which has spent over half a century building up its global credibility, has become the last ditch of US Treasuries.

In recent years, many G20 members such as China, France, Germany, and Russia have reduced their use of the US dollars in trade deals.

According to information disclosed by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), the share of US dollars in the international payment market in May was 40.88%, a drop from 44.1% in March.

While the market estimates there is still a long way to realise “de-dollarisation”, some countries are becoming restless to achieve it.

The SWIFT system, which has been traditionally used for trade clearance and payments, and which is overwhelmingly controlled by the United States, has been widely criticised across the world.

Many countries are striving to construct de-dollarising payment systems. For example, China launched the Cross-border Interbank Payment System in 2015.

It is very likely that the share of US dollars in international payment systems will drop to below 40%.

The share of the US dollar in total foreign exchange reserves of all IMF member countries has fallen from 72% in 2000 to 61.99% at the end of the first quarter in 2020.Although the US dollar’s share of foreign exchange reserves still ranks first worldwide, its decline in recent years is quite obvious.

Countries are determined to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.

It can be seen that central banks of many countries have increased their gold reserves, and the year 2019 marked the 10th consecutive year of annual net purchases of gold.

To offset risks brought by US dollars, the US share in global gold reserves fell from 23.64% at the end of June 2019 to 15.5% at the end of June 2020.

This reflects the weakening of trust in the US dollar by many countries.

It is conceivable that the US sanctioning against China due to the country’s national security legislation for Hong Kong will further accelerate most countries’ “de-dollarisation” programmes.

In addition to US Treasuries, payments as well as foreign reserves, digital currency and the Covid-19 pandemic are the latest factors that trigger the hastening of the “de-dollarisation” progress.

Digital currency seeks a comprehensive replacement of the US dollar as the primary international currency in terms of issuance, technology and tools.

Major economies including China, the EU, and Japan, plus many multinational corporations, have conducted long-term digital currency research.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, many doubters of “de-dollarisation” have been holding that global “de-dollarisation” is still in its infancy.

They feel markets are very dependent on the US dollar. But the Covid-19 pandemic seems to have triggered a faster “de-dollarisation” progress.

In view if the various diplomatic considerations and the market’s expectations for the US dollar, one can conclude that the United States can never form a strategic containment circle against China.

China is confident of this.

By Wang Wen,The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Centre. His latest book is Great Power’s Long March Road.wangwen2013@ruc.edu.cn. Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies is a private think tank set up by Qiu Guogen, an alumni of Renmin University and chairman of Shanghai Chongyang Investment Group Co Ltd.


US Printed More Money in One Month Than in Two Centuries

The Federal Reserve’s money printer has cranked up to ridiculous levels — but will it really lead to inflation?


In a letter to investors released on July 29, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead noted that the United States has printed a shocking amount of money to combat the pandemic-induced financial crisis.

“The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding,” Morehead wrote. “Last month the U.S. budget deficit — $864 billion — was larger than the total debt incurred from 1776 through the end of 1979.”

Morehead made it clear that Pantera Capital sees Bitcoin as the solution for the current crisis. He also contrasted the effects of money printing in recent months, to how the equivalent amount of currency had performed across centuries:

With that first trillion [USD printed] we defeated British imperialists, bought Alaska and the Louisiana Purchase, defeated fascism, ended the Great Depression, built the Interstate Highway System, and went to the Moon.”

Morehead cited the resulting inflation as the main reason one should “get out of paper money and into Bitcoin.” According to the CEO, “there is no need for inflation-adjusted numbers [with Bitcoin] because there is no inflation/hyper-inflation.”

Going to zero


Goldbug Peter Schiff is also concerned about the effects of money printing. He noted comments by the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who said this week that the Fed was using its “full range of tools” to respond to the pandemic: printing money, keeping interest rates close to zero, and making asset purchases steady at $120 billion per month.

“The U.S. is about to experience one of the greatest inflationary periods in world history,” Schiff said on Twitter. “Any credibility the Fed has left will be lost. Federal Reserve Notes soon won't be worth a Continental.” (Continental paper money in the U.S. was at one time exchanged for treasury bonds at 1% of its face value.)

Inflated prices as well?

Despite widespread fears over inflation, many experts predict consumer prices will actually go into a period of deflation — and that’s exactly what’s happened in Australia this week where ABC News reported that consumer prices in the country actually dropped 1.9% in June. It’s a record for deflation since the Korean War.

However many pundits believe the inflation is actually hidden in asset prices, rather than consumer prices, and that money printing has underpinned the share market rally in the midst of the pandemic.

Pantera Capital revealed its simple investment strategy for riding out the pandemic:

“Stay long crypto until schools/daycare open. Until then the economy won’t function and money will be continuously printed.”



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Mandatory face masks on Aug 1,2020 is for crowded public places

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Today is the day to mask up

Health DG: Mandatory face masks on Aug 1 is for crowded public places



What kind of face mask best protects against coronavirus?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/30/what-kind-of-face-mask-best-protects-against-coronavirus-covid-19

- Which One? Know the various Face Mask in the market by Dr Gigi Han

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So you want to wear a face mask? Good call.

A growing body of evidence supports the idea that wearing face masks in public, even when you feel well, can help curb the spread of the coronavirus — since people can spread the virus even without showing symptoms. That's the main reason to wear a mask: to protect other people from you.
Face masks can also offer the wearer some protection — though how much varies greatly, depending on the type of mask. No mask will offer full protection, and they should not be viewed as a replacement for physical distancing of at least 6 feet from others, frequent hand-washing and avoiding crowds. When you combine masks with those measures, they can make a big difference.
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When choosing a mask, experts say focus on the fabric, fit and breathability. How well a mask protects is a function of both what it's made of and how well it seals to your face. But if you can't breathe well through it, then you're less likely to keep it on.

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