Some think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade. Credit Michael Stravato for The New York Times
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated
250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs.
The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has fallen more than 70 percent since June 2014.
Prices recovered a few times over the last year, but the cost of a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to levels not seen since 2003 as
an oil glut has taken hold.
Also contributing to the glut was
Iran’s return to the international oil market after sanctions were lifted against the country under an international agreement with major world powers to
restrict its nuclear work that took effect in January.
Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade.
What is the current price of oil?
Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading at around
$38 a barrel on Wednesday.
The American benchmark was at around
$37 a barrel.
Why has the price of oil been dropping? Why now?
This a complicated question, but it boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.
United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last several years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping.
There are signs, however, that production is falling because of the drop in exploration investments. RBC Capital Markets has calculated projects capable of producing more than a half million barrels a day of oil
were cancelled, delayed or shelved by OPEC countries alone last year, and this year promises more of the same.
But the drop in production is not happening fast enough, especially with output from deep waters off the Gulf of Mexico and Canada continuing to build as new projects come online.
On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weak and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit.
Who benefits from the price drop?
Any motorist can tell you that gasoline prices have dropped. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply.ny motorist can tell you that gasoline prices have dropped. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply.
The latest drop in energy prices —
regular gas nationally now averages just above $2 a gallon, roughly down about 40 cents from the same time a year ago — is also disproportionately helping lower-income groups, because fuel costs eat up a larger share of their more limited earnings.
Households that use heating oil to warm their homes are also seeing savings.
Who loses?
For starters, oil-producing countries and states. Venezuela, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil and Russia are just a few petrostates that are suffering economic and perhaps even political turbulence.
The impact of Western sanctions caused Iranian production to drop by about one million barrels a day in recent years and blocked Iran from importing the latest Western oil field technology and equipment. With sanctions now being lifted, the Iranian oil industry is expected to open the taps on production soon.
In the United States, there are now virtually
no wells that are profitable to drill.
Chevron,
Royal Dutch Shell and
BP have all announced cuts to their payrolls to save cash, and they are in far better shape than many smaller independent oil and gas producers.
States like Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana are
facing economic challenges.
There has also been
an uptick in traffic deaths as low gas prices have translated to increased road travel. And
many young Saudis have seen cushy jobs vanish.
What happened to OPEC?
Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador and Algeria have all pressed
OPEC, a cartel of oil producers, to cut production to firm up prices. At the same time, Iraq is actually pumping more, and Iran is expected to become a major exporter again.
Major producing countries will meet on April 17 in Qatar, and some analysts think a cut may be possible, especially if oil prices approach $30 a barrel again.
King Salman,
who assumed power in Saudi Arabia in January 2015,
may find it difficult to persuade other OPEC members to keep steady
against the financial strains, even if Iran continues to increase
production. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the revenues
of Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies will slip by $300 billion
this year.
Is there a conspiracy to bring the price of oil down?
There are a number of conspiracy theories floating around. Even some oil executives are quietly noting that the Saudis want to hurt Russia and Iran, and so does the United States — motivation enough for the two oil-producing nations to force down prices. Dropping oil prices in the 1980s did help bring down the Soviet Union, after all.
But there is no evidence to support the conspiracy theories, and Saudi Arabia and the United States rarely coordinate smoothly. And the Obama administration is hardly in a position to coordinate the drilling of hundreds of oil companies seeking profits and answering to their shareholders.
When are oil prices likely to recover?
Not anytime soon. Oil production is not declining fast enough in the
United States and other countries, though that could begin to change
this year. But there are
signs that supply and demand — and price — could recover some balance by the end of 2016.
Oil markets
have bounced back more than 40 percent since hitting a low of $26.21 a barrel in New York in early February.
Some
analysts, however, question how long the recovery can be sustained
because the global oil market remains substantially oversupplied. In the
United States, domestic stockpiles are at their highest level in more
than 80 years, and are still growing.
But over the long term,
demand for fuels is recovering in some countries, and that could help
crude prices recover in the next year or two. -
The New York Times :
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