China, economy tests for Taiwan presidential winner Tsai

Visitors look at souvenir plates bearing images of Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan on display for sale at a shop near Tiananmen Square in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 17, 2016. Tsai Ying-wen's enjoys a broad mandate from her commanding victory in Taiwan's presidential election and her independence-leaning party's new legislative majority, but managing the island's delicate relations with China will be tricky. Already, Beijing has responded with statements following her Saturday night victory warning that it will not budge on its bottom line that Taiwan's leader must agree that the communist mainland and self-governing island democracy are part of a single Chinese nation. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan’s presidential election victor Tsai Ying-wen will enjoy a broad mandate from her commanding victory and her independence-leaning party’s new legislative majority, but managing the island’s delicate relations with China will be tricky.

Already, Beijing warned following her Saturday night victory that it will not budge on its bottom line that Taiwan’s leader must agree that the communist mainland and self-governing island democracy are part of a single Chinese nation. The sides could be in for a lengthy wait as China assesses whether it feels it can trust Tsai.

“To handle cross-Taiwan Strait relations after Tsai’s election will be difficult, not just for Taiwan but also for mainland China,” said Huang Jing, a China expert at Singapore National University’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

Tsai, who will be Taiwan’s first female president, won by 56 percent of the vote to 31 percent for her closest rival Eric Chu of the China-friendly Nationalist Party, which has held the presidency for the last eight years. Her Democratic Progressive Party won 68 of 113 parliamentary seats, giving it its first majority in the assembly long-dominated by the Nationalists.

“I wasn’t surprised a bit by the outcome. The Nationalists had to go. Now Tsai just needs to focus on the economy so I don’t expect she’ll do anything to rile up China,” Taipei tour bus driver Tan Kuang-jung said as a constant drizzle fell over the capital Sunday.

The reasons for the massive win were many.

Outgoing President Ma Ying-jeou had been growing increasingly unpopular among Taiwan’s 23 million people, largely due to perceptions that his push for closer economic ties with China was benefiting just a few and the futures of young Taiwanese who have seen wages stagnate and good full-time jobs harder to find.

Fearful of their original candidate’s poor reception among voters, the Nationalists dumped her in favor of Chu, but even he proved unable to raise their prospects. He resigned as party chairman immediately after Saturday’s defeat.

Newly politicized young people had coalesced in opposing yet another trade agreement with China and are believed to have voted heavily for the DPP.

A further backlash against the party’s pro-China stance was prompted by a viral video of 16-year-old Taiwanese entertainer Chou Tzu-yu bowing in apology for waiving the Taiwanese flag on television. Her apology was triggered by her South Korean management company’s fears that China would cancel appearances and endorsement deals.

“What happened surrounding Chou Tzu-yu, that whole controversy, made it almost a given (Tsai) would get over the 50 percent mark,” said Raymond Wu, managing director of Taipei-based political risk consultancy e-telligence.

“It’s an indication that someone would continue to bully Taiwan, at all different levels, even a 16-year-old who’s trying to make a name for herself in the entertainment field. This is something most Taiwanese find unacceptable,” Chou said.

The size of the win could also put additional pressure on Tsai and the DPP, said Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who closely follows Taiwanese politics.

“When you do as well, as decisively as the DPP has done, there are no excuses” for failure, Diamond said.

While China had largely refrained on commenting about the election beforehand, its Taiwan Affairs Office responded swiftly to the result with a statement reiterating that it would deal only with those who agree that the “two sides of the strait belong to one China.”

That was followed by another statement from the Foreign Ministry stating that “China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division. The result of the election in Taiwan will not change the basic fact and the consensus of the international community.”

“On such a major issue as safeguarding state sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Chinese government has rock-solid determination and never tolerates any separatist activities aiming at ‘Taiwan independence,’” said the statement, quoting ministry spokesman Hong Lei.

Taiwan was a Japanese colony from 1895 to 1945, and split from the mainland amid the Chinese civil war in 1949, when leader Chiang Kai-shek moved his Nationalist government to the island.

Reflecting public opinion on Taiwan and mindful of U.S. and other countries’ concerns about cross-strait tensions, Tsai has pledged to maintain the status-quo of de-facto independence without taking steps that might provoke China. In her remarks Saturday, she referred to Taiwan by its formal name, the Republic of China.

However, unlike Ma, she has refused to endorse Beijing’s “one China principle” — although she hasn’t publicly repudiated it either — and told supporters Saturday night that she would work to strengthen Taiwan’s status abroad.

Deprived of formal diplomatic relations with the world’s major nations, Taiwan relies on its stable of 22 allies, mostly small, poor states in the Pacific, Africa and Central America and the Caribbean. Chinese pressure has barred Taiwan from the United Nations and Beijing strictly limits the island’s participation in other groups or requires it to participate only under the name Chinese Taipei.

Depending on how it interprets Tsai’s actions, Beijing could ratchet up the pressure by luring away Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies or further shutting it out of international organizations. It could also seek to exact economic costs, possibly by limiting Chinese tourism to the island or reducing Taiwanese imports.

Far less likely is that it would resort to military intimidation despite its threat to invade if Taiwan opts for a formal declaration of independence. Although such tough talk plays well with the Chinese public, past attempts have backfired by generating even more support for pro-independence politicians.

Most probably, Beijing will observe what Tsai does and says before she takes office in May.

“I think the tough will get tougher and the soft will get softer. Certainly they’re going to see from now till inauguration what Tsai says and who she puts in key offices,” Wu said. - AP

Related post:

Taiwan chooses Democratic Progressive Party Chairwoman, Tsai Ing-wen, not independence

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Tsai Ing-wen won by a landslide in Taiwan’s “presidential” elections on Saturday, and the DPP...

Taiwan chooses Democratic Progressive Party Chairwoman, Tsai Ing-wen, not independence

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Tsai Ing-wen won by a landslide in Taiwan’s “presidential” elections on Saturday, and the DPP she leads captured the majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, with the Kuomintang once again becoming an opposition party.

Since KMT’s defeat in Taiwan’s nine-in-one local elections in 2014, it’s expected that the DPP will assume power again. To win the election, Tsai made prudent remarks and took an ambiguous attitude toward cross-Straits policies in the past year. She kept stressing maintaining the status quo of cross-Straits ties.

By circumventing the sensitive cross-Straits issue, Tsai had clearly drawn a lesson from her defeat four years ago. When “Taiwan’s path” was discussed in the “presidential” campaign this time around, the focus was not whether the island should seek “independence,” but how to boost the island's economy, address social inequality, and guarantee the future of younger generations.

The vote is not a gauge of cross-Straits relations. The DPP’s victory doesn’t mean the majority of Taiwanese support Taiwan independence. Tsai and her party are aware of this, so in her victory speech, she was evasive about the current issues between Taiwan and the mainland, only scrupulously stating that she will be engaged in a “consistent, predictable and sustainable cross-Straits relations.”

The past eight years have seen greater progress for cross-Straits relations. Such progress, which is hard to be reversed, will provide some restraint on the DPP’s mainland policy. Besides, the mainland has an asymmetrical edge over Taiwan in political, military and economic terms. The mainland firmly holds the initiative in cross-Straits relations, making Taiwan independence a completely impossible scenario.

The KMT’s eight-year administration has made contributions to the current stage of cross-Straits relations, a performance that merits recognition both in Taiwan and the mainland. After this power shift, the DPP should assume the responsibility of serving the best interests of Taiwanese society, avoiding creating trouble for cross-Straits relations like it did as an opposition party. If the DPP abandons the progress made by its predecessor in the past eight years, it will jeopardize its future as a ruling party. The lesson of Chen Shui-bian should be a long-lasting lesson.

The mainland should be more prudent toward the power shift in Taiwan. No matter which party takes power, the mainland should maintain a policy calling for peaceful development between the mainland and Taiwan, while it cannot waver in opposing any form of pro-independence movement in Taiwan.

Tsai hasn’t publicly accepted the “1992 consensus,” which casts a cloud over cross-Straits official communications after she assumes office. The mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Saturday said that Beijing upholds the 1992 consensus and hasn’t shown any change toward Taiwan.

Regardless of its relationship with the mainland, it’s impossible for the DPP to reverse Taiwan’s stagnant economy. No matter what kind of political philosophy Tsai espouses, she has to face up to the reality. She should know she has limited options.

Tsai should keep in mind that if she revisits Chen’s dangerous path to cross the red line of cross-Straits relations, she will meet a dead end. We hope Tsai can lead the DPP out of the hallucinations of Taiwan independence, and contribute to the peaceful and common development between Taiwan and the mainland. - - Global Times

Tsai should prove sincerity about peace across Taiwan Straits

Now that the Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen has won Taiwan's "presidential" election, she should waste no time to prove that she is sincere in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits. She should work to make people in Taiwan feel safe, instead of creating anxieties with her ambiguous mainland policy.

Tsai has played the card of "maintaining the status quo" during her election campaigns. But she has never made it clear how she would approach the 1992 Consensus.

As the cornerstone of cross-Straits relations, the consensus insists there is only one China, of which both the mainland and Taiwan are a part, though the meaning of "one China" is open to interpretation by both sides.

For a Taiwan leader, whether to accept the consensus or not decides which direction he or she would lead the island in: peace and stability, or conflicts and tension. The issue bears no ambiguity.

Thanks to the consensus, cross-Straits relations have developed smoothly over the past eight years. A slew of agreements have been signed to boost trade and tourism, bringing benefits to people on both sides. The two sides' top leaders met last November, for the first time since 1949.

All this has not come by easily, and should not be taken for granted. It requires efforts from both sides to make sure the momentum will not be interrupted by a leadership change, or derailed by any political missteps and misjudgment. After all, peaceful development of cross-Straits relations conforms to the interests of both Taiwan and the mainland.

Tsai has reportedly expressed wishes that both sides could work together for peace across the Taiwan Straits. If she means what she says, and accepts the 1992 Consensus, prospects for cross-Straits relations will remain promising.

The mainland has kept the door to dialogue open with the DPP so long as it accepts that both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. The mainland has also taken a flexible approach when handling relations with the DPP. The channel of communication remains unblocked.

Many differences remain between the mainland and Taiwan, not only in lifestyle and social system, but also in how and when the two sides should be reunited. But under no circumstance should the differences be used as excuses to seek Taiwan independence, which means war, as the mainland's Anti-Secession Law suggests. The bottom line shall never be tested.

Any attempt to steer the island closer to independence will be a fool's errand. - China Daily

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, opens to lay down milestone for global economic governance

  Xi pushes for 'perfection of the system


BEIJING: China has pledged US$50mil (RM221.25mil) to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to support infrastructure projects in less developed countries.

Launching the China-led bank here yesterday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said this proved China’s willingness to shoulder more international responsibility and “push for the perfection of the international system”.

“This is a historic moment,” he added.

With an authorised capital of US$100bil, AIIB was proposed as a global multilateral financial institution by Xi in 2013 to finance infrastructure development in Asia, including energy/power, transportation/telecommunications, rural infrastructure/agriculture development, and water supply/sanitation.

Representatives from 57 founding members, including Malaysia, attended the ceremony at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.

Malaysia, which holds 0.11% share and 0.36% of voting share in AIIB, was represented by Treasury deputy secretary-general Datuk Mohd Isa Hussain.

The three largest shareholders of AIIB are China, India and Russia, with a 30.34%, 8.52% and 6.66% stake respectively.

Each allocation is based on the size of the member country’s economy.

The bank, based here, is largely seen as a rival to the US-led World Bank and Interna­tional Monetary Fund.

The United States and Japan have shunned the AIIB while US allies – including Britain, France and Germany – have signed up as founding members.

AIIB president Jin Liqun promised to run AIIB as an organisation that is “lean, clean and green”.

“The bank will make a positive and significant difference in Asian development,” he said.

Speaking on behalf of the non-regional founding members, Luxembourg Finance Minister Pierre Gramegna said the fact that the idea to form AIIB came from the east was a testament to the rebalancing of the world’s economy.

“Without basic infrastructure, markets cannot function well and growth is limited. AIIB will be a boost to the Asian economy, and become a platform for cooperation that will foster economic integration and inter-regional connectivity,” he said.

By Tho Xin Yi The Star/Asia News Network

AIIB opens to lay down milestone for global economic governance

BEIJING, Jan. 16, 2016 (Xinhua) -- Chinese PresidentXi Jinpingaddresses the opening ceremony of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in Beijing, capital of China, Jan. 16, 2016. (Xinhua/Li Xueren)

BEIJING, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a China-initiated multilateral bank, started operational on Saturday, marking a milestone in the reform of global economic governance system.

Representatives of the 57 founding countries gathered in Beijing for the AIIB opening ceremony in Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. Chinese President Xi Jinping made a speech.

With joint efforts of all the members, the AIIB will become "a professional, efficient and clean development bank for the 21st century" and "a new platform to help foster a community of shared future for mankind, to make new contribution to prosperity of Asia and beyond and lend new strength to improvement of global economic governance," Xi said.

During the ceremony, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei was announced to be elected as the first chairman of the AIIB board of governors. Jin Liqun was elected the first AIIB president.

In addition to subscribing capital according to plan, China vowed to contribute 50 million U.S. dollars to the project preparation special fund to be established soon, to support the preparation for infrastructure development projects in less developed member states.

The AIIB will promote infrastructure related investment and financing for the benefit of all sides, Xi said, keeping Asia's enormous infrastructure development demand in mind.

Calling the initiative to establish the AIIB "a constructive move," Xi said it will enable China "to undertake more international obligations, promote improvement of the current international economic system and provide more international public goods."

Statistics from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) show that between 2010 and 2020, around eight trillion U.S. dollars in investment will be needed in the Asia-Pacific region to improve infrastructure.

Xi expected the China-initiated institution and other existing multilateral development banks to complement each other for mutual strength and cooperate on joint financing, knowledge sharing and capacity building.

In his address at the founding conference of the AIIB council on Saturday afternoon, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the operation of the new multinational development bank is "of positive and constructive significance for the global economic governance reform."

Hailing Asia "an engine" for the global economic growth, Li said the sustainable development of the Asian economy and regional economic integration rely on the infrastructure construction and connectivity, which would help facilitate the flow of trade, investment, personnel and information.

The aim of China initiating the AIIB is to widen financing channels, expand general needs and improve supply so as to bring along the common development in the region and promote world economic recovery with its own achievements, he said.

The premier called on the AIIB to integrate the China-proposed Belt and Road initiative with each country's development strategies, promote international cooperation on production capacity and innovate more modes to realize a diverse and inclusive cooperation.

Global leaders extended congratulations to the opening of the multilateral development bank.

"The ADB will cooperate closely with AIIB in supporting the development of the Asia Pacific region," said ADB President Takehiko Nakao in a congratulatory message to the opening of the AIIB.

"We will cooperate closely to provide support and constructive suggestions for the AIIB development," said Yoo Il-ho, deputy prime minister of the Republic of Korea at the opening ceremony.

China's Vice Finance Minister Shi Yaobin said in an interview with Xinhua that China does not intend to apply for financial support from AIIB in the initial stage.

"Though as the biggest shareholder of AIIB and the biggest developing country in the world, China is fully qualified to gain loans from the AIIB, but we made the decision mainly because that many other countries in the region are in more urgent need for infrastructure development," said Shi.

Shi said China holds 30.34 percent of the whole capital stock, with the first batch of capital stock worth 1.19 billion U.S. dollars already in place.

The AIIB was proposed by President Xi Jinping in October 2013. Two years later, the bank was formally established as the Articles of Agreement took effect on Dec. 25 last year.

As its name suggests, the AIIB will finance construction of infrastructures -- airports, mobile phone towers, railways and roads -- in Asia.

Amid the evolving trend of the global economic landscape, Xi expected the AIIB will help make the global economic governance system more just, equitable and effective. - Xinhuanet

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AIIB will be a clean, lean and green bank, says first president

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will be a 21st-century multilateral lender with rigorous corporate culture, says Jin Liqun.

 

Backgrounder: The AIIB

Full text of Chinese President Xi Jinping's address at AIIB inauguration ceremony

Spotlight: AIIB to promote vitality in regional development, opportunities for emerging economies 

BEIJING, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- The newly-inaugurated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will bring vitality to regional growth and opportunities for global development, especially for developing economies, overseas experts and scholars have observed.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday attended the opening ceremony for the international development bank in Beijing.Full Story

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