Malaysia's property market to take a breather in 2014 and 2015

PETALING JAYA: The property market might need at least two years to digest and recover from the various cooling measures that came into effect this month, but expect it to surge again in 2016, say industry officials.

According to Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents president Siva Shanker, 2014 is expected to be a tough year for sales, but the market will find its footing next year and catch the next upcycle in 2016.

“The market ground to a standstill after Budget 2014. There was a knee-jerk reaction in sales.

“It will probably stay in the doldrums for the first half of 2014. The second half may be better,” Shanker, who is also CEO-Agency of property consultancy PPC International Sdn Bhd, told StarBiz by phone.

Shanker believes that speculation over the past few years in the primary market, resulting in “far more properties bought than needed”, had been put to a stop by the new curbs.

“The days of 20%-40% appreciation in property prices after only a few years is over, ” he said.

Even so, Shanker sees the secondary market, which he said had languished for years, regaining its lustre.

“A new launch in Bangsar could set you back RM1,500 per sq ft, compared to RM800-RM1,000 per sq ft for an existing property. The discount goes up to 50% in some prime areas,” he said.

An analyst with TA Research said that unlike previous years, many listed developers have held back on their 2014 sales targets – a departure from their usual forward guidance in December – until a clearer picture emerges from the effects of Budget 2014 and other tightening measures.

The exception is Mah Sing Group Bhd, which is aiming for a 20% increase in sales this year to RM3.6bil.

According to the analyst, policy uncertainty on several fronts – such as whether Iskandar Malaysia’s Medini is exempt from real property gains tax, or the pricing of bank loans using the net selling price of a property – remains an overhang on the market.

“The sector’s fundamentals are intact, but in terms of share prices, the catalysts are lacking,” she said.
Property players have noticed a marked slowdown in sales since the various curbs were put in place, although it is unclear by how much.

A number of high-end launches were also shelved, as developers switch their focus to the affordable segment of the market, where demand is more resilient.

Some of the projects launched post-Budget 2014 include block B of YTL Land & Development Bhd’s Fennel@Sentul East condominiums, which saw a take-up of 80% soon after it was opened for sale in mid-November, while tower A and B of Sunway Bhd’s Geo Residences were 85% sold within two weeks, HwangDBS Vickers Research noted.

In Iskandar Malaysia, however, the response to UEM Sunrise Bhd’s Almas Suites and WCT Holdings Bhd’s Medini Signature Tower 2 have been lukewarm, Maybank Research said in a report last week.

The brokerage’s only “buy” call is Glomac Bhd, even though the firm has cut its own sales target for the year ending April 30, 2014 by 18%.

CIMB Research is more upbeat. It expects buying interest to return in the first half of this year, albeit gradually, when potential homeowners realise that prices are unlikely to fall, and that inflationary pressure from the impending goods and services tax, along with other subsidy cuts, leads to higher prices.

“As these macro prudential and policy measures are meant to curb speculation and not restrain genuine demand, the impact (though negative in the short term) should be positive over the longer run because they should help to remove froth from some segments of the market.

“Also, affordability remains close to its highest ever. Robust sales by developers should provide impetus for a re-rating of property stocks,” the research house told clients earlier this month.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, which believes the market will stage a recovery in the second half of the year, advocates a buy-on-weakness strategy for shares amid trough valuations.

Contributed by John Loh The Star/Asia News Network

TPPA negotiations hot up in early 2014

Due to the United States political calendar and congressional politics, the TPPA negotiations will heat up the first few months of the new year. 

ONE of the major developments in the new year will be the negotiations and in fact the fate of the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), which has stirred a lot of interest and controversy not only in Malaysia but also in the United States, whose government is its prime mover.

The first half of 2014 will be decisive because the US will hold mid-term congressional elections in November, and that nation’s attention will focus on that after mid-year.

Since free trade agreements are so controversial and in fact unpopular among the public in that country, the TPPA and other FTAs will be hard for the US president and his administration to champion near the election period.

This may explain why the US is in such a hurry to finish the TPPA negotiations as soon as possible. It had placed a deadline of end of 2013, but that has passed without success.
Indeed, the ministerial meeting in Singapore in the first half of December revealed many outstanding differences.

So, the negotiations will become even more intense in the next few months, with a possible ministerial meeting in February.

Malaysia is one of the significant countries that have raised several concerns about the proposals by the US.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak himself, at a meeting in Bali last October, highlighted government procurement, state owned enterprises, investor-state dispute system and intellectual property as some of the issues that may infringe on sovereignty, implying that there should be careful consideration and caution during negotiations.

The US Trade Representative Michael Froman visited Malaysia a number of times to meet with some ministers and parliamentarians. He reportedly assured them of the United States’ understanding of Malaysia’s concerns, which he implied would be taken into account.

Malaysians are thus waiting to see how much flexibility will be given to accommodate the concerns of the public and the Government.

For instance, Malaysia formally proposed a comprehensive “carve-out” (exclusion from disciplines in the TPPA chapters) for tobacco control measures, a move that was advocated by health groups and the Health Ministry, and which has won warm congratulations from the public and media around the world, including in a New York Times editorial.

According to media reports, Malaysia has also opposed proposals for tight intellectual property rules that for instance extend the present terms for patents for medicines and asked for high thresholds for government procurement, and exemption for its bumiputra policies, while also challenging the proposed disciplines on state owned enterprises and the investor-state dispute system.

On goods market access, Malaysia will also find difficulties with the proposed ban on export duties. Recently the association of palm oil refining companies warned that their operations would be threatened if the TPPA forces the country to abolish its long-standing export tax on crude palm oil.

A ban would also cause the Government to lose around RM2bil annually in revenue, which would be a serious blow to efforts to reduce the budget deficit.

The question is whether Malaysia’s demands will be met. Even if compromise or flexibility is offered, it is crucial to examine how genuine or adequate they are. Often, the only “flexibility” is a longer period granted to implement the specific rule in question. That is not really much use.

Even if an exemption is given, it may be limited or useless. For example, in an early version of the investment chapter, available on the Internet, there is a clause that nothing in the chapter prevents the countries from undertaking health and environmental policies. But it also says provided those policies are consistent with the chapter, thereby negating the apparent space provided for exclusion.

Thus the devil is really in the details, as the saying goes. And the details have to be carefully scrutinised, because it is an old negotiating tactic to show a spirit of understanding and compromise politically but remain steadfast and uncompromising in the legal texts, and it is the latter that counts.

Another key point is that the US negotiators and government have little room to provide compromises, even if they want to. That is because it is the congress that has the real power over trade matters, including the TPPA.

Last week, some members of Congress introduced a Bill to provide the US President with fast-track authority, which means that a trade agreement like the TPPA can only be adopted or rejected by congress, but cannot be amended by it.

Without this fast-track authority, there is no confidence among other countries that what the US negotiators agree to or sign will be agreed to by congress, which can reject certain parts of the TPPA and demand changes.

As a condition for giving the fast-track authority, advocates are asking the US government to take a strong stand on issues.

This puts pressure on the US negotiators not to compromise, even if they wanted to.

For example, the Bill says that on state owned enterprises the US should seek commitments that eliminate unfair competition favouring SOEs doing commercial activity and ensure that their practices are based solely on commercial considerations.

Government policies and the SOE practices would have to abide by eliminating discrimination and market-distorting subsidies.

The US is already proposing that SOEs cannot discriminate when they buy and sell goods and services, and that they cannot receive any advantages such as cheaper loans or land and business from the government.

This would, for instance, imply SOEs being prohibited from giving preferences for bumiputra companies in their procurement.

If the definition of SOEs also include private companies in which government agencies have a share, the net will be cast very wide.

It is however still unlikely that the proposed Bill will pass, as many Democrats are opposed to fast track and some Republicans just don’t want to give President Obama anything he wants.

But here’s the problem. If fast track is given with the conditions attached, the US negotiators will have to abide by them and can’t show required flexibilities. If there is no fast track, the proposed texts agreed to by the US can more easily be rejected by congress.

Either way, there is only so much the negotiators can give in response to demands made by Malaysia or other countries, and even then the compromises can be rejected by congress.

Which goes to show how difficult FTAs are to negotiate or conclude when the US is involved, for commerce and politics are all mixed up in the pot.

Global Trends by Martin Khor

Related posts:
1. Winds of change blowing in Asia
2. Looming danger on contrast and competition of economic models
3. An eventful week on the TPPA
4. TPP affecting health policies?
5. ASEAN plans world's largest trading bloc in Asia, RCEP ...

Singapore may tighten finance rules, monitoring new forms of illicit financing

Move to curb money laundering, terror financing activities

The Monetary Authority of Singapore may step up regulations to curb money laundering and terrorism financing risks posed by remittance agents, money changers and some Internet-based payment systems. 

Controls on pawnbrokers and corporate service providers such as lawyers and accountants can also be improved, according to a government risk study released today. Singapore authorities are closely monitoring virtual currencies such as Bitcoins that may be used for illegal activities and will consider regulation if needed, according to the report.

“Singapore’s openness as an international transport hub and financial center exposes it to inherent cross-border” money laundering or terrorism financing risks, according to the study. MAS “has put in place a robust preventive regime. Nonetheless, there are areas for further enhancement.”

The risk assessment study comes seven weeks after Singapore police and the bank association urged residents to be wary of fraudsters seeking to use their bank accounts to funnel illegal funds after an increase of reported cases last year.

Remittance agents, who accept funds for transfer to individuals outside Singapore, and money changers operate in “cash-intensive” industries and offer greater risks of money laundering or terrorism financing, according to report.

Total outward remittance from Singapore amounted to S$24.1 billion ($19 billion) in 2012, while inward remittances were S$995 million, the government said in the study. Volumes in the money-changing business that year were S$36.8 billion. The implementation of controls in these industries isn’t as robust as in banks and MAS will ensure “enforcement efforts are further stepped up,” according to the report.

More Powers 

The pawnbroking industry had total loans outstanding at over S$1 billion in 2012, the study showed. The number of pawn shops in the city increased to 191 that year from 114 in 2008.

MAS is also considering additional supervisory powers and requirements to bolster “nascent” money laundering and terrorism financing controls for Internet payment companies such as PayPal Inc. or Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s Alipay.

Agencies involved in the study included MAS, the customs bureau, the casino regulator, the finance, home affairs and law ministries, and the Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority.

Accountants and other corporate service providers can be exposed to money laundering and terrorist financing activities if higher-risk customers hire them to set up complex structures that conceal ownership and reduce the transparency of transactions, according to the study.

Tax Evasion 

Singapore’s central bank is stepping up its anti-money laundering rules in line with global regulations following U.S. authorities’ investigation of several Swiss banks for their dealings on behalf of American clients. MAS made it a crime last July for clients to use financial institutions to evade tax.

UBS (UBSN) AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland’s largest banks, are among firms implicated in a U.S. crackdown since 2008 on offshore tax evasion that led to charges against about 70 American taxpayers and 30 bankers, lawyers and advisers.

The U.S. charged UBS in 2009 with aiding tax evasion by thousands of American clients. The Zurich-based bank avoided prosecution by paying a $780 million penalty, admitting it fostered tax evasion and agreeing to hand over data on client accounts to U.S. tax officials.

Private Banking 

Risks for private banks operating in Singapore are lower than those for full banks because they have fewer clients, less physical cash transactions and more checks when customers open accounts, according to today’s report. Singapore is Asia’s largest private banking center with offshore assets of about $800 billion, Boston Consulting Group data show as of September.

In Singapore, the number of reported cases of illegitimate cash being given to so-called money mules to hand over to a third party increased to 133 in the first nine months of last year, up from 93 for all of 2012, local police, the bank association and the National Crime Prevention Council said in November. The amount of illegal monies in those cases fell to S$15.5 million from 2012’s S$24.6 million.

- Contributed by Darren Boey in Hong Kong at dboey@bloomberg.net; Sanat Vallikappen in Singapore at vallikappen@bloomberg.net

Singapore monitoring new forms of illicit financing

Asian financial hub Singapore on Friday said it was scrutinising trade in virtual currencies such as Bitcoin as well as precious stones and metals to forestall new forms of illicit financing by criminals and terrorists.

In an inaugural report on money laundering and terrorist financing risks, the city-state said these sectors were identified for further study "as technology evolves and criminals become more sophisticated".

"Authorities will seek to better understand how money laundering and terrorist financing can be carried out through these channels," said the joint report by the finance and home affairs ministries as well as the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

It said the government would "review international best practices, to determine whether any safeguards and mitigating measures are needed".

The report said virtual money and precious metal-backed currencies carry the risk of being abused due to their anonymity, cross-border nature and low transaction costs.

The MAS, which serves as the city-state's central bank, "is closely monitoring developments in this area and will consider the need for regulation if necessary", the report said.

Bitcoin, the world's most popular form of electronic money, made headlines last year when US authorities closed the Silk Road website when it was found the currency was being used to buy illegal drugs, forged documents, hacker tools and even the services of hitmen.

The report also said Singapore was monitoring the trade in precious stones and metals.

"There are international typologies on the use of precious stones and metals as a tool to launder money, particularly as a store-of-value to move illicit proceeds easily," it added.

The bank said of 22 sectors that were assessed, the city's vast financial sector remained among the most vulnerable to abuse owing to the large number of transactions that take place and its wide international reach.

Singapore houses the regional offices of some of the world's top financial institutions and its total assets under management are now around Sg$1.4 trillion ($1.02 trillion), according to the MAS.

The report said "relevant controls are in place" for financial institutions, including supervision by MAS, record keeping, transaction monitoring and rigorous customer due diligence measures.

It identified remittance agents, money-changers, Internet-based stored value facility holders, pawnbrokers as well as corporate service providers as sectors where "controls are relatively less robust".

"Relevant government agencies will be strengthening the legislative and supervisory framework through the year to address the risks in these sectors more effectively," it said.

"The possibility that terrorist elements may seek to direct funds from abroad to support terrorism activities in Singapore or use Singapore as a conduit for foreign (terrorist financing) cannot be discounted," the report said.

Singapore in 2001 said it crippled a cell of the Southeast Asia-based militant network Jemaah Islamiyah with the arrest of suspects linked to an alleged plot to bomb local and foreign targets including Changi Airport.

Officials say the island republic is a prime target for extremist groups because of its close ties with the United States and major role in global finance and business.- AFP