Fitch downgrade bad for Malaysian stockmarket

People in the market are aware of the issue revolving around Fitch Ratings’ downgrade, hence it did not result in any immediate implication.

The situation, however, is a temporary hiccup, say market observers 

THIS week was a rough one for Malaysia. The stock market fell the most in seven weeks, the ringgit dropped to the lowest in three years and the yield of Malaysian government’s 10-year debt paper increased to the highest point since January 2011. That reaction stems from Fitch Ratings downgrading its outlook for Malaysia’s credit rating.

Market observers agree that the revised outlook is bad news for the stock market, but they also agree that the situation is a temporary hiccup.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index (KLCI) closed 1.25% or 22.46 points lower at 1,7772.62 on Wednesday. But on Thursday, the local bourse rebounded to close 0.3% or 5.2 points higher to 1,777.82. It continued its uptrend yesterday, advancing 0.26% or 4.69 points to 1,782.51 yesterday.

Inter-Pacific Research Sdn Bhd head of research, Pong Teng Siew tells StarBizWeek over the phone that there was a massive “knee-jerk” pullout by foreign funds in the equity market the day after the revised outlook by Fitch Ratings.

“On Wednesday, RM436.5mil foreign selling took place and it continued on Thursday at RM262.1mil,” he says.

He explains while foreign investors are prone to a cash out their positions in the market, the situation is instead cushioned by the local investors.

Yet, the sell-off could represent a temporary hiccup because Malaysia’s public finance (the reason for Fitch Ratings to downgrade its outlook) is considered old news, Pong notes.

He adds that people in the market are aware of the issue, hence it did not result in any immediate implication. “It would not hold the market from advancing”.

Areca Capital chief executive officer Danny Wong says that the stock market will bounce back again because the country’s strong economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are still robust.

“Those factors will drive the stock market to recovery,” he adds.

He notes that the foreign investors may use the downgrade as a reason to exit Malaysia.

“There is a concern that the downgrading may affect foreigners to exit Malaysia in a big way,” he says, noting that the impact could be minimal in the stock market but a greater concern for the bond market.

Public Finance

High debt levels have been a growing concern in recent years for the country, as the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest in South-East Asia.

Malaysia debt-to-GDP ratio is almost touching its ceiling limit of 55%.

The country’s budget deficit had widened to 4.7% of GDP in 2013 from 3.8% in 2011, Fitch notes. It said the downgrade in its outlook was because it feels Malaysia’s public finances are its “key rating weakness”.

“I believe that the Government will pursue its target to reduce the budget deficit by 4% this year, or at least show a sign of reduction,” says RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng.

The ringgit has depreciated further to RM3.25 against the US dollar as the greenback strengthens.

CIMB Research in a report says the depreciation of the ringgit benefits exporters, such as plantation, rubber glove and semicon players, as well as those with foreign currency revenues.

“Malaysia’s current account balance is expected to narrow to around 3% of GDP or lower this year,” its chief economist Lee Heng Guie tells StarBizWeek.

Since the first quarter, the current account surplus had narrowed to 3.7% of GDP. In 2012, current account surplus stood at 6.1% of GDP compared with 14.4% of GDP in 2005 to 2010.

He adds that the downward pressure on the current account is due to the slowdown in export growth and an increase in imports as the domestic demand grows.

“Going forward, we expect two developments in the balance of payments to influence the direction of Malaysia’s current account, which includes export earnings volatility and private investment growth picking up as a result of the Economic Transformation Programme implementation and import of investment capital goods for the construction, oil & gas and service sectors.

“The sustained inflows of private capital and a large war chest of foreign reserves will provide a strong buffer against the weakness in the current account,” he says.

He notes a deterioration in the balance of payments should not be a cause for alarm. “It is the speed, magnitude and cause of deterioration that should warrant a pre-emptive action”.

“Nevertheless, further erosion of the current account surplus and given that Malaysia also incurs persistent years of budget deficit, the emergence of ‘twin deficits’ if they materialise could flag investors’ concerns about their sustainability and net external financing issues to bridge the gap. This underscores the urgency for the government to take remedial action to contain the budget deficit,” he explains.

Response

On Thursday, Fitch Ratings head of Asia-Pacific sovereign Andrew Colquhan over a conference call said that a downgrade in Malaysia’s credit rating is “more likely than not” over the next 18 months and 24 months, after cutting the Malaysia’s outlook, highlighting a concern over the Government’s commitment for fiscal consolidation and budget reforms step.

“It is difficult to see the Government pressing forward any of those steps after the general election,” he says, adding that the rating could reverse if action was taken to address the fiscal issue.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak gave his assurance that the Government would address the concerns over the Fitch Ratings outlook in his budget speech this year.
“We have already put in place a fiscal committee, which is looking into some of this challenges that we face, and all these will be addressed shortly, especially in the forthcoming Budget,” he said yesterday.
Budget 2014 is expected to be tabled on Oct 25.

Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz says Malaysia has the capacity and capability to address its fiscal vulnerabilities in a gradual and sequenced manner.

“Malaysia still has time to do it, but of course it is now more urgent because the global environment has become more challenging,” she said, adding that policymakers were putting emphasis on increasing national resilience and boosting its potential to sustain economic growth.

The Government has targeted to reduce budget deficit to 4% this year, 3.5% in 2014 and 3% by 2015.

Bond yields

The revised outlook by Fitch also pushed up the yield on the 10-year Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) to the highest since January 2011.

On Wednesday, the yield increased to 4.13% and remain above 4% on Thursday.

“The pullout by foreign funds started in June 2012 judging from the decrease in the foreign holdings in MGS to RM137.9bil in June from RM144.5bil in May.

“The downgrade of Malaysia’s outlook by Fitch Ratings has compounded the impact as local bond market is still digesting what had transpired in the US Treasuries (UST) market on possible tapering of assets purchase programme by the US Federal Reserve,” said Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia chief executive officer Meor Amri Meor Ayob in an email reply.

He says that the local bond market is sensitive to the spread between UST and MGS. “The UST yields have spiked up substantially for the past two months, so have the MGS yields”.

“That being said, in the longer-term perspective, the MGS yields will depend on the health of the economic fundamentals, such as GDP growth, inflation outlook, current account balance as well as fiscal and monetary policy,” he notes.

Zeti says there is not reason to overreact over the recent sell-off of Malaysian bonds.

She adds Malaysia is a highly open market and that it could cope with such volatility because its financial market is one of the most developed among emerging economies.

By INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL - The Star/Asia News Network

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How stolen handphones would be useless?

Retrieved goods: Some of the handphones and an iPad recovered from the businessman.

KUALA LUMPUR: Stolen handphones will be rendered unusable within three hours of the owners reporting the devices missing. And even changing the SIM cards will not reactivate them.

The system, to be introduced before the end of the year, is part of a government crime-prevention initiative to reduce phone thefts.

A telecommunications industry source said that industry regulator, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), issued a directive to telcos in April to comply with the new requirements for this initiative.

MCMC chairman Datuk Mohamed Sharil Tarmizi said the system was to reduce street crime and handphone thefts since stolen smartphones can be sold at half the retail price in the black market.

“Yes, we are doing this. Many countries like the United States, Australia and Britain already have such a system in place. We got the consumers’ backing,” he said.

[ Type in your image caption here ]

He said MCMC was ironing out some technical issues with the network operators before the service was launched.

Mohamed Sharil added that the telcos were not to charge their subscribers for the new service.

The operators had been told to instal an Equipment Identity Register (EIR) so that the 15-digit International Mobile Station Equipment Identity (IMEI) code that is unique to every phone can be blacklisted if the device is reported stolen. Each EIR will be linked to a Malaysian Central Equip­ment Iden­tity Register (MCEIR), to which the IMEI codes of stolen phones will be forwarded.

The source said all blacklisted IMEI codes would then be stored in the EIRs to render the phones unusable on any network and to block any attempt to reactivate the devices with new SIM cards. Once blocked, the phone cannot ever be reactivated.

“This can help reduce phone thefts and at the same time, assist the police to identify the thieves or anyone trying to reactivate the device,” the source said.

The telcos had been given three months to comply with the MCMC directive and the deadline expired yesterday.

Malaysia will be the first country in the region to introduce this IMEI barring system, according to the source.

MCEIR will be operated by the MCMC, which has outsourced the managing of the system to Nuemera Malaysia Sdn Bhd. The deal was signed about two months ago.

“Nuemera will operate MCEIR round the clock. It will be responsible for monitoring and generating the IMEI code blacklist. The information will be forwarded to all telcos within 180 minutes of the phones being reported stolen or missing,” said the source.

The source said the initiative would be extended regionally and the effort had been endorsed at the recent Asean Telecommunication Senior Officials Meeting and Asean Telecom­munication Ministerial Meeting.
The Star reported in December last year that the rising popularity of smartphones has made them one of the most sought-after loot.

Consumers laud move to block stolen handphones

PETALING JAYA: Consumer associations have given the thumbs up to the initiative to block stolen handphones from being reused or circulated back into the market.

Describing it as a long-overdue move, Federation of Malaysian Con­sumers Associations (Fomca) deputy president Muhammad Sha’ani Abdul­lah said it would contribute towards lowering street crime, especially snatch thefts.

He called on the Malaysian Com­munications and Multimedia Com­mission (MCMC) to work with other regulators in the region so that this initiative can be expanded to other neighbouring countries too. He was responding to a move to reduce phone thefts as part of the Government’s crime prevention measure.

Penang Consumer Protection Asso­ciation president K. Koris Atan said consumers would embrace the move as it would give them peace of mind knowing that their phones would be rendered useless if stolen.

He also warned telecommunication companies (telcos) not to charge consumers for this as the system was already in place.

Muslim Consumers Association of Malaysia secretary-general Datuk Dr Ma’amor Osman said while this was a good move, he was unsure as to how consumers would reap the benefits as the likelihood of getting back their lost devices was slim.

“I also hope this will not cost the Government much,” he said.

One mobile phone user questioned whether having such a mechanism could work a little “too well”.

“What’s the point of getting your phone back if you can’t use it any more? It is better off lost,” said music teacher, Susan Kuee, 39.

She is also concerned over whether unscrupulous parties could take advantage of the new system to maliciously block other people’s phones.

“Perhaps victims could provide some verifying details before they allow authorities to render a phone useless so that malicious people do not abuse the system,” she said.

- The Star/Asia News Network

Fitch downgrades Malaysia due to high government debts and spending

PETALING JAYA: Fitch Ratings, after cutting Malaysia’s credit rating outlook to “negative”, sending the stock market and the ringgit reeling, has said it is more likely to downgrade the country’s rating within the next two years on doubts over the Government’s ability to rein in its debt and spending.

The Government, in response to Bloomberg News, rebutted such concerns and said it was committed to fiscal responsibility, stressing that it would rationalise subsidies and broaden the tax base.

It said the economy was fundamentally healthy, with strong growth and foreign currency reserves.

Standard & Poor’s had last week, however, reaffirmed its credit rating on Malaysia and said it might raise sovereign credit ratings if stronger growth and the Government’s effort to reduce spending resulted in lower-than-expected deficits. “With lower deficits, a significant reduction in Government debt is possible,” it said.

It might lower its rating for Malaysia if the Government fails to deliver reform measures to reduce its fiscal deficits and increase the country’s growth prospects.

“These reforms may include implementing the Goods and Services Tax or GST, reducing subsidies, boosting private investments and diversifying the economy,” said S&P.

The downgrade in Malaysia’s rating outlook by Fitch on Tuesday took a toll on the capital markets, and sent the ringgit to a three-year low against the US dollar.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index closed 1.25% or 22.46 points lower at 1,772.62, and the ringgit fell to RM3.2425 against the greenback, its lowest since June 30, 2010.

The bond market, where foreign shareholding recently was at an all-time high, also saw yields climb dramatically. The yield for the 10-year tenure for Malaysian Government Securities rose seven basis points yesterday to 4.13%. The yield for the 10-year Government bond has climbed 77 basis points since April 30.

In a conference call yesterday afternoon, Fitch Ratings warned that a downgrade in Malaysia’s credit rating was “more likely than not” over the next 18 to 24 months. It highlighted Malaysia’s public finances as its key issue for the rating weakness.

Its head of Asia-Pacific sovereigns Andrew Colquhoun said over the phone that there was a concern over the Government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation after the May general election (GE).

“It is difficult to see the Government pressing forward with any fiscal reform steps or budget reforms,” he said, adding that the rating would reverse if any action was taken.

CIMB Research, in a note by its head of research Terence Wong and economics research head Lee Heng Guie, said Fitch’s revised outlook on the country was “bad news” for the stock market.

“While we believe there will be a knee-jerk selldown, the average lifespan for a rating outlook is about 18 to 24 months before a downgrade is enforced, giving Malaysia time to prevent that,” the report said.

They said the Fitch downgrade was a warning to Malaysia to improve its macroeconomic management, and was of the opinion that the Government had time to get its house in order.

“We believe the authorities will take the warning seriously and move to address any weaknesses,” they noted.

Both Wong and Lee, however, felt that any weakness in the stock market was an opportunity for investors to accumulate shares.

“The depreciation of the ringgit benefits exporters, such as plantation, rubber glove and semiconductor players, as well as those with foreign currency revenues,” they said.

Meanwhile, Areca Capital chief executive officer Danny Wong told StarBiz that foreign investors might use the downgrade as a reason to exit from Bursa Malaysia.

“There is a concern that the downgrading may affect foreigners to exit Malaysia in a big way. Hence, it created a ‘knee-jerk’ reaction to the market.

“However, I think the impact would be minimal on the equity market but the concern is on the bond market because of the 33% foreign ownership,” he said, adding that the outlook by Fitch was earlier than expected since the 2014 budget is set to be announced in two months’ time.

RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said the cut in the outlook by Fitch had rattled the market, but feels the country’s fundamentals such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, high foreign reserves and current account surplus would soothe worries over any rating concerns.

“I believe the Government will pursue its target to reduce the budget deficit by 4% this year, or at least show a sign of reduction.

“However, Malaysia’s current account balance will narrow further by end-2013 due to a weakening in exports, although a deficit account is unlikely to happen,” he opined.

High debt levels have been a growing concern in recent years in Malaysia, as the Government debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest in South-East Asia. At 53.5% as at the end of last year, it is higher than the 25% in Indonesia, 51% in the Philippines and 43% in Thailand, noted a report by Bloomberg.

The ratio for Malaysia is almost to the debt ceiling limit of 55%.

Fitch, it its notes accompanying its decision to downgrade Malaysia’s credit outlook, said the country’s budget deficit had widened to 4.7% of GDP in 2012 from 3.8% in 2011, led by a 19% rise in spending on public wages ahead of the May GE.

It believes that it will be difficult for the Government to achieve its 3% deficit target for 2015 without additional consolidation measures.

By INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL intanzainul@thestar.com.my