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Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Malaysian market to outperform

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian equity market is expected to outperform the emerging Asian markets as price-to-book valuations are relatively low despite the sterling economic growth the country has seen last year, says an economist and investment strategist Herve Lievore (pic)

"We expect Malaysia to outperform other emerging Asian countries and that would probably take place in an environment where inflation could possibly accelerate given the fact that we have seen consumer price inflation extremely stable over the past four to five months," he told reporters at the HSBC 2013 Market Outlook briefing yesterday.

"We are expecting a moderate acceleration of inflation going forward but this is unlikely to derail the equity market," he added.

Lievore said it is also constructive on Malaysian equities due to massive undervaluation of the currency.

HSBC Global Asset Management (HK) Ltd senior economist and investment strategist  said emerging Asian markets excluding Singapore had grown by 20%-30% last year but the Malaysian equity market only grew by 10%.

“This is abnormal despite the fact the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2012 was strong but that should be temporary.

"The economic performance has been very good last year, we saw very positive developments especially on the structure of the economy," he said.

He said Malaysian equities are more attractive since prices have not risen that much last year when the economy actually performed very well.

Malaysian equities are undervalued given the prospect for earnings growth going forward. "What we have seen in 2012 is probably abnormal and temporary by nature," he said.

"The market has been obscured by uncertainties on when the general election will take place, but there is no reason why it underperforms that much."

HSBC favours cyclical sectors such as energy, basic materials, commodities, consumer discretionary and by extension, financials, which are dependent on the economic cycle.

Lievre also does not expect Bank Negara Malaysia to alter its key policy rates, which will remain at 3%.

Another factor for the central bank to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate is the expectation of ringgit appreciation going forward.

“In 2013, it is expected to perform better than other emerging Asian countries especially in the Asean region,” he told reporters at a media briefing.

He said increasing domestic demand would bode well for future growth.

He also said that the economic structure was strong but the equity market did not respond to that “evolution”.

“I would say that the market has probably been obscure on when the general election would take place but there is no reason why Malaysia underperformed that much.”

He was in favour of pure cyclical plays like commodities, utilities and financials and expected them to outperform defensive stocks.

He noted the timing for financial stocks to be different as banks responded to monetary cycle rather that economic cycle.

He was also positive about the number of companies listed on the local bourse.

“As the market becomes more liquid, it becomes more efficient and hence its attractiveness is increased,” he added.

Last year there were 17 new listings amounting to RM23bil on Bursa Malaysia.

He expected the inflation rate to be at a “benign” level although it might “accelerate moderately” as the consumer price index had stabilised in the past four to five months.

On the ringgit, he expected the currency to appreciate further as long as there was a trade surplus.

“Investors could take profit from stronger growth in the country and appreciation of currency, so, we are positive,” he said.

As for bonds, he expected growth to stabilise at the yield curve of slightly above 3%.

The only concern he had was the declining savings surplus if it were to fall below 8% of GDP.

On the global market, he expected growth to remain subdued with three key risks from the eurozone crisis, China's recovery and the “fiscal cliff” in the United States.

He said the Russian and China markets offered value for investors.

Sources:
NG BEI SHAN beishan@thestar.com.my and Eva Yeong sunbiz@thesundaily.com

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Monday, January 14, 2013

China sends fighters to counter Japan's war planes


China’s Ministry of National Defense has denounced Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft.

At a press conference, an official with the ministry confirmed that China sent two J-10 fighters to the East China Sea, after a Y-8 aircraft was closely followed by two Japanese F-15 fighters. The Y-8 aircraft was patrolling the southwest airspace of the East China Sea oil platform on Thursday.

According to the official, the two J-10 fighters were sent to monitor the Japanese fighter jets tailing the Y-8 as well as another Japanese reconnaissance plane spotted in the same airspace. The official said Japanese military aircraft have been increasingly active in closely scouting Chinese aircraft.

The official said the Chinese military will be on high alert and China will resolutely protect the security of its air defense force and uphold its legitimate rights. The official also called for the Japanese side to respect relevant international laws and to prevent security disputes by taking effective measures.

Chinese Foreign Ministry:
 
China reaffirms routine military flights over East China Sea
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei made the comments at a press briefing on Friday, responding to media reports that Japan deployed fighter jets to head off a number of Chinese military planes over the East China Sea on Thursday. Full story >>

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Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei has urged Japan to draw lessons from history and pursue a path of peaceful development. Hong Lei made the remarks at a regular press conference on Thursday, expressing China’s stance towards Japan’s plan to raise its defense budget in 2013. Full story >>

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Ministry of National Defense:
 
Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft

At a press conference, an official with the ministry confirmed that China sent two J-10 fighters to the East China Sea after a Y-8 aircraft was closely followed by two Japanese F-15 fighters as it patrolled the southwest airspace of the East China Sea oil platform on Thursday. Full story >>

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 Japan tracer bullets will bring war closer


According to Japanese media, the Japanese government is considering permitting Japanese self-defense forces' fighter jets to fire tracer bullets as warning shots against Chinese surveillance planes which have "infringed" upon Japan's "territorial airspace" over the Diaoyu Islands.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said yesterday that China has consistently opposed Japan's infringement upon China's sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands. China "remains vigilant against attempts to escalate the tensions."

The Chinese spokesman's statement is not enough to express the Chinese people's strong determination to fight back against Japan's unscrupulous action.

We believe that if Japan starts using tracer bullets, it will definitely trigger a military confrontation between China and Japan. Chinese people will certainly ask the government to send naval and air forces to retaliate.

Tracer bullets were used by Japan to warn Soviet Union surveillance aircraft above the Okinawa Prefecture in 1987. However, the relationship between the Soviet Union and Japan was one of war and invasion. The Diaoyu Islands are a typical disputed area.

We believe that China is carefully assessing plans to deploy combat aircraft to the Diaoyu Islands due to the imbalance between China's surveillance aircraft and Japan's fighter jets. If Japan uses tracer bullets, Chinese fighter jets are bound to be sent to the Diaoyu Islands.

China's replacing surveillance aircraft with fighter jets does not mean they will conduct military operations there. These are upgrades of China's ability to defend its sovereignty in the face of Japan's provocations. All of East Asia would face tension in that scenario, but we have no choice. We do not wish to begin a war with Japan. However, if Japan insists on provocations, we will follow it through to the end.

If the Chinese government does not earnestly prepare for it, it will certainly suffer huge political losses. The public wouldn't understand that and they would not accept any interpretations by the government.

China may fall into military conflict with Japan eventually. We hope we can continue our peaceful development, but our risk management strategies are more complex due to various pressures.

There is little room for concessions. Therefore, let us abandon all hesitation and seriously prepare for mutual warnings and confrontation with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands. If the situation goes awry, we must make Japan pay more of a price than China.

The Diaoyu Islands dispute will test the Chinese government's leadership for a long time. But we should have confidence: our rival is a bully which can even bear US military occupation. As long as we keep tough, we will not lose this test of wills. - Global Times



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US most corrupt country in the world?

Hong Kong action hero Jackie Chan has once again provoked criticism, this time from an American blogger, after suggesting on Chinese television that the US is the "most corrupt" country in the world.



"When you talk about corruption, the whole world, is there corruption in the United States? The most corrupt in the world!" the Rush Hour star, who has made headlines recently for his controversial views, told Phoenix TV last month.

Chan reaffirmed his view after the show's host questioned him -- "Of course! Where did the great breakdown come from? The world, the United States started it," Chan said, referring to the financial crisis and gesticulating as he spoke.

His comments were rebuked Thursday by Max Fisher, a foreign affairs blogger for the Washington Post, who called them "anti-American" rhetoric that was rooted in China's insecurity.

"To the degree that Chan's comments were anti-American, they likewise reflect a common Chinese view of the United States, one that is rooted not just in attitudes toward America but in China's proud but sometimes insecure view of itself," Fisher said.

Jackie Chan also said China is a relatively young country, where in the first half of its history it was "bullied by so many people", and that it only achieved "real success" in the past decade.

"Our country's leaders admit they are corrupted, etcetera. We are improving -- I can see our country is constantly improving and learning," he said, adding that everyone is making an issue out of China because it is "powerful" now.

Chan, who is known for his martial arts skills and daring stunt work, sparked criticism in Hong Kong, which was returned to China in 1997, after he reportedly told a Chinese magazine last December that protest in the city should be restricted.

In the same interview, he said that he was bullied by Hong Kong triads and had to hide in the United States. He also said he needed to carry a gun everyday to protect himself, leading to a police investigation. – AFP