May 2013 be a year of productivity?

We must make sure Malaysia and the rest of the world keep going forward this new year.

WISHING people a “Happy New Year” or “Kong Xi Fa Cai” or “Selamat Hari Raya” or “Happy Deepavali” and “Merry Christmas” is something I enjoy doing very much.

The invention of e-mail, SMS and other more recent phone applications have made me a serial “wisher” and if you are on my contact list, you should have got a message from me.

For the coming 2013, I wrote a little ditty and it reads:
“Every New Year brings new hope,
Every New Year brings new joy,
Let’s make sure 2013 will bring more,
Let’s make 2013 a GREAT year”

Ninety per cent of those who got my message replied politely but most of them just treated it as another “wish”.

I would like to stress that my wish for everyone is a deep-felt one and it’s one that I mean with all sincerity – 2013 is an important year not only for us in Malaysia but also the world.

As this article is being written, the TV and wires are reporting that the Republicans and the White House have just made a last-minute deal to avoid the US economy from going over the “fiscal cliff” which would drive the US and possibly the Western world into a recession immediately.

There can be many criticisms levied against President Barack Obama and the other US politicians of leaving it until so late to come to a compromise on a very important matter with global impact.

But the successful conclusion just before midnight of New Year’s Eve augurs well for everyone. At least we started 2013 on a positive footing.

The stock markets in Asia reopened on the first day of trading of the New Year in positive territory. That’s a good start.

Avoiding the fiscal cliff is just one of many global issues that the world inherited from 2012 and needs to be overcome in 2013.

Among the more urgent ones are:

> The Euro Zone financial crisis. Nothing done seems to have had any effect and even the mighty German economy is beginning to waver under the weight of the problem. Other big economies like Spain, Portugal, Italy and France all seem to be resigned to the fact of a prolonged downturn.

The world needs to start treating economic ailments the way it treats terrorism and war – by doing it with an all-out effort.

I accept that there is no single cure for a downturn because most are caused by different situations.

However, the urgency in treating and handling economic issues is downright embarrassing.

An example is the World Trade Organisation that was set up more than 20 years ago and until today has hardly made any significant headway except to be a very expensive talk shop.

> The horrifying disintegration of Syria. The way the world has allowed this nightmare to carry on is unbelievable.

All they have done is pay lip service at best or at worst, send one side or the other more weapons that will only prolong the suffering.

The problem of the wide media publicity given to this civil war is that it has made people immune to the violence and abuses that is going on there.

Each time we see a new video coming out of that country that shows death and destruction, all we tend to do is shrug our shoulders and remark “another day in paradise”.

This has to stop. We have to care and, in 2013, we should all act as one to prevent such carnage from continuing.

> Back home in Malaysia, our attention will be focused on the GE 13 which I will bravely say will take place before April 7.

Does this mean that all our energy and attention will be centred on the first quarter of the year?

I hope not. Our energy will be needed even more after that.

Yes, this general election will be the mother of all political battles – the kind where brothers take on brothers and husbands bravely challenge wives’ political ideology.

I will not be wrong to say that both sides on the political divide have already hardened their stand – all are prepared not only for the polls but also to up the ante to a feverish pitch.

Let’s hope the pitch just stays feverish and measurable by the thermometer. Yes, there is much at stake for both sides – it’s political survival for some of the key characters in our political theatre.

Because much of it is about personal survival, certain personalities may want to take the feverish pitch past the measurable level.

I do not want to dwell on who has what at stake but I would like to caution all politicians that the country needs to move on after the votes are counted.

They must not create a situation where the country cannot move forward or backwards.

Malaysia cannot afford to be stuck in another 60 months of political quagmire caused by turning everything into a political issue whether it’s a Olympic silver medal or how long before Selangor runs out of water.

I hope the whole country will wake up after polling day, take in the results and quickly get back to work because there will be more than 154 days to go before the end of 2013.

Malaysia has burst into a quick trot in its catch-up with the rest of the world in 2012, let’s not waste all that to tantrums thrown by sore losers in a political race.

A very down-to-earth colleague, in reply to my greetings, wrote: “It’s just another day. So think young, stay healthy and better be good.”

While she may have meant the New Year’s day – I think it is also apt for the day after election.

Happy New Year.

WHY NOT?
By WONG SAI WAN saiwan@thestar.com.my

Executive editor Wong Sai Wan spent his New Year’s eve at a friend’s place toasting to a bright future for everyone.

‘The year of shame 2012’ get any worse in 2013?

THE year 2012 has been labelled “the year of shame'' for the banking industry.

It doesn't matter that such nasty name-calling refers more to the problems at British banks.

Whatever happens in London is bound to attract world interest as it is a major financial centre vying for top spot with New York.

When scandals fall in thick, the tarnish on the banks there becomes even more significant.

To make matters worse, it is now apparent that the Libor interest rate rigging problem is more widespread than originally thought.



Source: Accounting Degree.net (click to link and enlarge)

It was not just a case of a few bad apples causing the rot, said The Guardian.

The problem was cultural, the report said, implying that it would require a wide spectrum of action to overhaul mindsets and unhealthy practices, possibly from ground level.

This requires much work on an international platform as there is no knowing how far and deep the rot has spread.

No doubt, banks in London and New York are the major players in the financial industry, and the other smaller players are feeling the heat as the ripple effect wears on.

As arrests related to the Libor rigging are ongoing, reports liken the revelations and subsequent documentation to a “blizzard.''

A blizzard is a severe snowstorm that often affects visibility, and points to very difficult weather conditions.

In banking and Libor rigging, in particular, this possibly refers to the layers of greed, conspiracy and corruption among the people responsible for conducting the trades.

Going into 2013, more arrests, fines and revelations are expected; the blizzard, therefore, is expected to be stronger.

In view of such a possible scenario, what are the central banks and other banks supposed to do to prevent any international backlash?

Not to underestimate the long-drawn effects of bank weakness, these external parties should quickly cooperate on an international basis to share information, iron out potential problems and try to prevent a big crisis from erupting.

With sound and consistent monitoring, a lot of negative effects can be pre-empted and, thus, avoided.

PLAIN SPEAKING By YAP LENG KUEN The Star

Associate editor Yap Leng Kuen wonders if it is too late to find a shield from blizzards.

Related posts:
The Libor fuss!
HSBC Bank fined $1.92 billion for money laundering

Created by www.accountingdegree.net

The new year 2013 will continue with the trends of of the passing year

The new year will start with two economic crisis events in the United States but otherwise, we can expect 2013 to continue with the trends of the passing year. 

IF 2012 is the year that did not bring about the end of the world, then 2013 should be the beginning of a new era, according to the Mayan prophecy.

But it is unlikely the new year will herald a brand new age for the world as a whole.

More probably, it will continue the trends in the old year but in more pronounced and deeply felt ways.

The year 2013 starts with the United States falling off the “fiscal cliff” or else escaping from that at the last moment.

If the fiscal cliff takes effect fully, up to four percentage points of GNP are expected to be sucked out of the US economy due to tax increases and government spending cuts combined, thus resulting in a new recession.

Another problem will soon reach crisis point.

The US government debt will reach its mandated limit around now, and President Barack Obama and Congress will have one to two months to negotiate an increase in that limit before the administration runs out of money to pay for its operations or service its debts.

Thus, we can expect the first two months of 2013 to be preoccupied with the drama of the US politics on debt, taxes and government spending.

It seems that the President-Congress and Democrat-Repub­li­can bitter battles of the last few years will return at the start of Obama’s second term.

If so, the United States’ political paralysis will be reflected in economic policy deadlocks.

The economic crises in the United States, and how they play out, will have a big impact on 2013 worldwide, especially since Europe is already in the midst of a recession.

With the uncertainties in the major developed economies, and the softening of the economies of China, India, Brazil, most developing countries will face economic difficulties this year but the extent of this is to be seen.

On the political front, the ongoing economic turmoil will lead to political changes in many European countries, and the future of the European Union and the Eurozone will themselves come under significant strains.

The next chapter of the Middle East drama is quite unpredictable. Israel, with its right-ward tilt, is expected to become even more aggressive, as its recent plan for more settlements in Jerusalem shows, and this may increase its isolation further.

But whether the Palestinian parties can unite and take advantage of its strong resistance in Gaza, its new UN-adopted status as a state, and the decline in Israel’s international support, is to be seen.

The Iran nuclear issue will continue to occupy news attention, with the Western countries having to decide whether to negotiate with Iran or intensify the sanctions (or both) or prepare for a military attack (thankfully, this does not seem likely).

The Syrian civil war will still dominate the TV channels as it enters another phase and perhaps an end-game, while the continued struggle for Egypt’s future political and social system will also have major effects on the region and the world.

In Asia, the world will watch closely whether the final stage of China’s leadership change-over to the new President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang in March will begin a new era or continue the policies of the past decade.

Malaysia will have its place in the global spotlight with the general election, which will most likely take place in March.

Whatever the results, this closely contested election will be a watershed in the political life of the nation.

India, too, is in a state of significant political and economic flux, and 2013 will be used by the political parties and forces to prepare for the climax of the general election in 2014 and it is anybody’s guess who will come up on top.

Even as politics and economics continue to occupy the most attention, 2013 will remind us with greater force that Nature forms the bedrock of our societies and our civilisation.

The passing year brought its share of natural disasters to rival those of the previous recent years, and 2013 could even see worse extreme weather events around the world.

Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase despite greater awareness about the dangers of climate change.

Last week’s big floods in Malaysia’s east coast states could be a harbringer of worse to come in the country and the region.

The Philippines, having suffered a typhoon in its southern region in early December, had to cope with another big storm in its central region last week.

These are reminders that each country should improve its natural disaster preparedness as well as finalise its national strategy to address climate change.

And there are many other environmental issues to give high priority to, including water scarcity and quality, deforestation, biodiversity conservation, toxic chemicals and wastes and pollution of all types.

It will be an interesting year ahead.

Happy New Year to all readers of Global Trends!

Global Trends By MARTIN KHOR

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