Malaysia's GDP growth dips to 5.2% in Q3, beats economists' forecast

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter ended Sept 30 expanded 5.2% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand and investment activities.

The expansion in GDP beat economists' median expectations of 4.8%. GDP growth in the second quarter was revised upwards to 5.6% from 5.4%.

Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said at a briefing to announce the GDP data that growth in the quarter was supported by domestic demand, especially in the favourable performance of private and public sector consumption and investment activities.

She noted that growth was affected by slower external demand resulting in further decline in net real exports of goods and services.

“The world economic environment remained challenging in the third quarter.

“Growth in the advanced economies was uneven, with the US economy experiencing an improvement while several other major advanced economies continued to experience weak growth, constrained by fiscal adjustments, sluggish labour markets and impaired financial intermediation,” Zeti said.

Moving forward, Zeti said GDP growth trend in the fourth quarter was “likely to continue very much like the third quarter” but added that there were some uncertainties seen in the export sector.

“The export sector reflects the (economic) developments in the global environment. It will continue to remain weak because of the economic developments taking place in the developed world. But domestic demand is expected to continue being strong.

“And as such, the outcome (of this) is that we will, of course, be affected by external developments as we are not insulated but the anchor to our growth is from domestic demand and we expect this to continue to be strong,” she said.

On Bank Negara's growth estimates for the entire 2012, Zeti said GDP growth for the full year “would be at least 5% or better.”

“This (assumption) is given that (GDP growth in) the first three quarters have been better than expected. In the first half of the year, the exports sector was better than expected despite the challenging external environment.

“But as we entered the third quarter, we see exports became negative and it remains uncertain as how the exports sector will perform in the fourth quarter,” she said.

Bank Negara said that during the third quarter, domestic demand expanded by 11.4% (versus 14% in the second quarter) while gross fixed capital formation registered a robust performance of 22.7% from 26.1% in the second quarter (Q2), underpinned by capital spending by both the private and public sectors.

“Private sector investment was driven by capital spending in the services sector, particularly the transportation, real estate and utilities sub-sectors and the ongoing implementation of projects in the oil and gas sector,” Zeti said.

“For public investment, the capital spending by public enterprises was mainly channelled into the transportation, oil and gas and utilities sectors while the Federal Government's development expenditure was mainly channelled into the transportation, education and public utilities sectors,” she added.

Bank Negara noted that growth across most economic sectors had moderated in the third quarter.

The services sector growing by 7% from 6.6% in the second quarter, manufacturing slowed slightly with a 3.3% growth from 5.6% in the second quarter due to a moderation in export and domestic-oriented industries and the construction sector grew by 18.3% from 22.2% in the second quarter, driven by the civil engineering sub-sector such as the mass rapid transit mega project and the construction of the second Penang bridge.

Bank Negara said the agriculture sector recorded growth of 0.5% from minus 4.7% in the second quarter due to a recovery in crude palm oil production, while the mining sector contracted 1.2% from a 2.3% growth in the second quarter because of declines in natural gas production due to planned shutdown in facilities.

Economists told StarBizWeek that the third-quarter economic growth was commendable and they were unanimous that growth will most likely exceed 5% for the whole of this year.

“Malaysia's GDP growth of 5.2%, which is marginally slower than 5.6% in the previous quarter, is a gravity-defying performance. This is testament to continued consumer spending and economic transformation programme projects that have offset some external headwinds,” RAM Holdings group chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said.

“My estimate for GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.5% earlier. For the full year, it is likely to be at the higher end of the range of forecast, likely above 5%. Of course, external risks still remain, given the contraction in eurozone and fiscall cliff situation in the US economy.”

Alliance Research chief economist Manokaran Mottain said that going forward, he was confident GDP growth would still be healthy at around 5% in 2013.

“This is in line with the Government's continued spending to develop infrastructure and its recently announced bonus to civil servants and cash hand-outs to targeted groups.

“The economy (in the third quarter) is still driven by domestic demand, led by private consumption and investment activities, reflecting the Government's drive to stimulate income growth, improve and develop infrastructure as well as ensuring a steady flow of foreign capital,” Manokaran said.

By DANIEL KHOO danielkhoo@thestar.com.my

Asean, an arena of superpowers

A new report sees South-East Asia as the strategic venue of a possible great game' by two superpowers - again.

CHINA'S irrepressible rise amid US continued pre-eminence has been reverberating around the globe, spewing truckloads of issues for dissection and debate.

Among these issues is South-East Asia as a regional theatre for economic integration, diplomatic engagement or military entanglement. Despite declarations of the best intentions by all, the events that result may not always be desirable.

The New Geopolitics of Southeast Asia, released this month by the London School of Economics' (LSE) IDEAS, a centre for the study of international affairs, diplomacy and grand strategy, focuses on the region in this context. So what is one to make of China-US or US-China relations in this regional “theatre”?

Part of the first section, dramatically titled “The Clash,” and the Conclusion are by Malaysian banker Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid, a doctoral student at the LSE back in 1978. Dr Munir is also the only South-East Asian among the three contributors in this section.

He begins by sketching the regional scenario as it develops: China's rise, followed by US scurrying to make up for a perceived lack of attention to East Asia after its preoccupation with West and South Asia. Washington's “relative neglect” is now embodied in its “pivot” strategy of moving 60% of its naval force to East Asia by 2020.

Interestingly, 2020 is also the target year for this region first Malaysia, then Asean as a whole, and then China to achieve peak economic performance. And there lies the rub: while East Asian planners emphasise economic development, US planners stress military force.

The economic dimension remains paramount in East Asian thinking in times of plenty and adversity. As Dr Munir notes, during the devastating 1997-98 financial crisis China stopped its planned devaluation of the renminbi as a lifeline to stricken regional economies, while the US was “conspicuous by its inaction”.

However, he also finds that US moves have not entirely neglected economics, such as Hillary Clinton's regional roadshow towards the end of 2010. Nonetheless, these efforts are still seen as belated, few and far between.

The larger issue is whether the US can accommodate China's rise with wisdom, maturity and equanimity. Prickly talk in Washington about branding China a “currency manipulator”, or a tendency to resort to military manoeuvres, is not encouraging.

Dr Munir recounts US strengths and weaknesses, but includes among the former a “military force without equal”. But having to spend half the entire world's military expenditure each year is more a weakness than a strength, particularly when the US is also the world's biggest debtor nation.

The only “strength” there resides in the US military-industrial complex, since the military sector is unproductive and can conceivably “profit” only through war and conquest. Recent developments however suggest that such gains tend to be temporary or illusory.

Meanwhile, the political strategy behind the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes some countries but excludes others, the latter being the newest Asean countries and notably China, is likely to weaken Asean. Such divisiveness in a supposedly economic entity is illogical, counter-intuitive and ultimately counter-productive.

But that is consistent with US refusal to adopt a more internationalist outlook on the conflicting claims in the South China Sea. Dr Munir says the US should, instead of simply repeating outdated mantras, consider the deep seabed the common heritage of mankind and form US policy on this basis.

That approach would engage China positively and win support and confidence among other countries. But in his own recent experience in Washington, senior senators and policy researchers were predictably uncreative in their approaches.

On the recent South China Sea spats between China and the Philippines and then Vietnam, Dr Munir refers tellingly to Washington's ambiguity in extending protection to security allies in the region. Where treaties or some formal understanding exist, what can the declared US “neutrality” mean or be taken to mean?

This ambiguity applies also to the East China Sea, where Japan's security treaty with the US is often assumed to cover outbreaks of conflict over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands with China. Some US officials, like the US Congressional Research Service that informs policymakers, reject such disputed areas as distinctive national territory covered by categorical security guarantees.

Much of Dr Munir's contribution centres on issues arising from conflicting maritime claims, which represent the most likely flashpoint in today's South-East Asia, despite there being other important issues to consider. The key question is whether any country can conceive of a rising China in the context of today's realities, as distinct from ideological preconceptions and national prejudices.

Dr Munir finds the economic data showing that far from China swamping other countries by “its” exports, these are really mostly exports of its major investors based there. It is a China “at the centre of regional and international division of labour” and of regional and international economic integration.

Between 2009 and 2010, imports into Asean countries from the US declined sharply while imports from China rose even more sharply. It gives a whole new meaning to “import substitution” in South-East Asia, apart from everything else.

Complex situations framed with delicate issues require sensitive and nuanced responses. A hyperpower anxious to even the score in the region will only act like the proverbial bull in the china shop, upsetting everybody's applecarts to nobody's benefit.

The rapid pace of changes is undisputed.

Dr Munir says China's economy may become the world's biggest by 2030, but others like the IMF now put it earlier at 2016.

VIEWS By BUNN NAGARA newsdesk@thestar.com.my

 Related post:South-East Asia in the frontline of US containing China rise?

China's leadership changes

Xi will have to address a slowing of economic growth that threatens party's claim to prosperity [Reuters]

China's new Politburo standing committee, from left, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli. Photo: Reuters
 
Ruling Communist Party unveils new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee that will govern nation for next decade.

State media says Xi Jinping is to take the reins of China's all-powerful Communist Party in a leadership transition that will put him in charge of the world's number-two economy for the next decade.

Xi, the current vice president and successor to President Hu Jintao, assumes power at an uncertain time with the party facing urgent calls to clean its ranks of corruption and overhaul its economic model as growth stutters.

His long-expected ascension as head of the ruling party took place at 0400 GMT along with the unveiling of a new Politburo Standing Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

According to tradition, the members marched out before the media in a pecking order agreed after years of factional bargaining, a process which intensified in the months leading up to the five-yearly reshuffle.

In-depth coverage of China's Communist Party congress

Xi will consolidate his position at the apex of national politics by being named China's president by the rubber-stamp legislature next March, for a tenure expected to last through two five-year terms.

The standing committee, which had nine members under Hu has been slimmed to seven and includes Vice Premier Li Keqiang, which would set him on the path to be be appointed premier from next March.

Other members include Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli.

They will be tasked with addressing a rare deceleration of economic growth that threatens the party's key claim to legitimacy - continually improving the livelihoods of the country's 1.3 billion people.

China also bubbles with localised unrest often sparked by public rage at corruption, government abuses, and the myriad manifestations of anger among the millions left out of the country's economic boom.

The communists have a monopoly on political power in China and state appointments are decided within the party.

The process began with behind-the-scenes horse-trading and political deals.

It was essentially finalised on Wednesday when the party ended a week-long congress by announcing a new Central Committee of 205 people.

On Thursday, the Central Committee approved the higher leadership bodies, including the elite Politburo Standing Committee.

Factional politics

Observers believe two main factions have been jockeying for power, one centred largely on proteges of former president Jiang Zemin and another linked to allies of Hu.

Xi is considered a consensus figure who leans toward Jiang, while Li has long been seen as a Hu protege.

Analysts say that despite rivalries between the two camps which are largely divided on patronage lines, they broadly agree China must realign its economy away from a dependence on exports, while maintaining a firm hand on dissent.

The government has ramped up security in Beijing and on the nation's popular social media sites to prevent any criticism during the gathering.

The run-up to this year's congress was unsettled by events surrounding Bo Xilai, a political star seen as a candidate for a top post until a scandal in which his wife was convicted of murdering a British businessman.

The sensational affair torpedoed Bo's political career, he will face trial for charges of corruption and abuse of power, and added to the intrigue in the run-up to the transition.

Agencies
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