34,000 more out of work in Eurozone

BRUSSELS: Unemployment in the eurozone remained at record highs in August and the number of people out of work climbed again, highlighting the human cost of the bloc's three-year debt crisis.

Joblessness in the 17 countries sharing the euro was 11.4% of the working population in August, which was stable compared with July on a statistical basis, but another 34,000 people were out of work in the month, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said yesterday.

That left 18.2 million people unemployed in the eurozone, the highest level since the euro's inception in 1999, while 25.5 million people were out of a job in the wider 27-nation European Union, Eurostat said.

The debt crisis that began in Greece in 2010 and has spread across the eurozone to engulf Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and the much bigger economy of Spain has devastated business confidence and sapped companies' abilities to create jobs.

A European-wide drive to cut debts and deficits to try to win back that lost confidence has led governments to cut back spending and lay off staff, while stubbornly high inflation and limited bank credit are adding to household's problems.

Joblessness could go beyond 19 million by early 2014, or about 12% of the eurozone's workforce, according to a new study by consultancy Ernst & Young, predicting that rate to rise to 27% in indebted Greece. That compares with 24.4% in the country in June, the latest data available.

“In this difficult environment, companies are likely to reduce employment further in order to preserve productivity and profitability,” the report said.

Eurozone manufacturing put in its worst performance in the three months to September since the depths of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, with factories hit by falling demand despite cutting prices, a survey showed yesterday.

The International Monetary Fund expects the eurozone's economy to shrink 0.3% this year and only a weak recovery to emerge next year that will generate 0.7% growth.

But the joblessness picture also obscures wide regional variations. In Austria, unemployment is the eurozone's lowest at 4.5% in August, a slight fall from July, while Spain has the highest rate at 25.1% in the month.

While a bursting of a real estate bubble in Spain and the end of a decade of credit-fuelled expansion in Greece account for difficulties in the Mediterranean, policymakers still face the challenge of trying to revive growth across the bloc.

“The recession in the eurozone is due to the tough consolidation course in the peripheral countries, weaker global demand and the high uncertainty coming from the sovereign debt crisis,” Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil wrote in a recent research note.

Eurozone and UK central bankers will likely leave policy unchanged at their meetings this week, but both will announce additional measures to help their moribund economies before the year's end, according to a poll. - Reuters

QE3: Get ready for influx of cash!

QE3 set to boost confidence but experts warn against simply loading up on equities.

A RIVER of cash is likely to wash over the global financial system soon, thanks to decisions by major central banks to unleash their monetary “bazookas” on the faltering global economy.

The money-printing ball started rolling last month when the European Central Bank (ECB) said it would make “unlimited” purchases of bonds from countries such as Italy and Spain.

The US Federal Reserve was next, announcing that a third round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE3), would start at the rate of US$40bil (RM122.5bil) a month until the job market recovers “significantly”.

It was soon followed by the Bank of Japan, which said it would extend its asset-purchasing scheme by 10 trillion yen.

A big chunk of that excess liquidity will likely flow into Asian financial markets as investors search for better returns, given the low interest rates in most countries.

It is tempting to think investors can simply load up on equities and ride a rally like previous rounds of quantitative easing but this is not so, say experts.

They believe that while QE3 will boost confidence and support markets, the euphoria will be checked by the reality that the real economy is in the doldrums.

The list of worries is long: China is decelerating fast, Europe remains mired in recession, and many US consumers are still looking for jobs.

With countervailing forces at work, wealth managers and analysts have plenty of ideas on what to buy and what to avoid.

Buy
> US, Asian equities 

Analysts believe the flood of money will do much to support markets, but not all will do equally well.

UBS Wealth Management regional chief investment officer Kelvin Tay believes defensive bourses such as Singapore and Malaysia will do less well than markets such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and China.

He added that what is also likely to boost shares in Asia, outside of Japan, is simply that some stock markets look cheap, based on a metric known as price-to-earnings ratio. Shares could rise 12% from current levels, he said.

DBS regional equity strategist Joanne Goh said the bank recently recommended an “overweight” for Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets, indicating that investors should buy into these markets. These markets are likely to do well because they are large, open and undervalued, she added.

Analysts’ views were slightly more mixed about US equities, with some believing they will get a boost from QE3, while others warned that the impact would be limited.

Matthew Rubin, Neuberger Berman’s director of investment strategy, said American shares do look relatively cheap compared with investment-grade bonds.

“The additional liquidity should further support a rise in prices,” said Rubin, who helps set strategy at the fund, which manages assets of US$194bil (RM593.9bil).

But Sean Quek, Bank of Singapore’s head of equity research, said past experience shows that US equities benefit less from quantitative easing.

“Also, current valuations are less attractive versus previous QE periods as well as global peers,” he said, adding that he has a neutral rating on American shares.

> Gold

Most analysts believe stocking up on gold and gold-related assets is a good move.

First, with the amount of cash expanding in the system, there could be the risk of higher inflation. And with the value of the currency likely to fall due to the huge amounts of cash flowing about, investors will want “real assets” to protect themselves.

Rubin noted: “Real assets such as precious metals will act as inflation hedges and are per­ceived as diversifiers to holding fiat currency.”

Chew Soon Gek, head of strategy and economic research for the Asia-Pacific at Credit Suisse Private Banking, believes precious metals will outperform other commodities.

“They are the most sensitive to monetary easing, inflation expectations and real interest rates,” she said.

She tips gold to hit US$1,850 (RM5,663.80) per ounce in a year, from the US$1,760 (RM5,388.40) now.

> High-yield securities

With interest rates likely to stay near zero for the next two years, analysts believe that the demand for high-yielding securities will remain strong.

In particular, companies that pay a good dividend and have strong balance sheets are likely to attract investors, say analysts.

“With the QE expected to suppress yields and the Fed’s commitment to keep interest rates low until mid-2015, dividends will remain an important driver of total returns,” said Quek.

He noted that firms giving investors good payouts have generally performed better in the past two years when rates have fallen.

Rubin also believes that high-yield corporate bonds as well as real estate investment trusts are good places to park money.

“The search for yield in a low interest rate environment will continue,” he said.

Avoid
> US dollar 

If there is one asset class that most analysts believe is to be avoided, it is the greenback.

The flood of US dollars into the system through QE3 will lead to what analysts term a “debasement” of the currency – essentially a depreciation. In fact, Rubin believes that cash, and not just the greenback, should be avoided.

“QE3 increases potential for inflation and depreciation of the dollar,” he said.

This may also affect Singapore investors who have taken positions in US equities, as the currency may erode gains or increase losses due to the exchange rate. Likewise, investors might want to avoid the euro.

The poor economic outlook and flood of cash into the market will likely send it down against Asian currencies such as the Singdollar.

Uncertain
> European equities

For investors who take a riskier approach to investing, European stock markets do offer an option. After all, some of the best bargains are made when everyone else is deserting them, said Henderson Global Investors.

The asset management firm said that even though the outlook is gloomy, many firms remain healthy, with global operations.

But Quek is cautious on the region, simply because many question marks over the overall health of the economy remain.

A recent run-up in share prices there, as a result of the ECB’s unlimited bond purchase decision, has also made European stocks more expensive and less attractive, he noted. “As such, we are maintaining a negative stance on Europe.”

> Property 

While previous rounds of quantitative easing may have been one of the causes of property price inflation, this may not be repeated with this latest round.

Singapore has introduced the additional buyer’s stamp duty of 10% that foreigners incur when buying homes. Tay thinks that while QE3 may keep property resilient, price rises will be capped.

But QE3 could still end up boosting the appeal of US property, says Dr Lee Boon Keng, head of the investment solutions group for Singapore at Bank Julius Baer, noting that the housing conditions were improving and rebounding from historical lows.

“The US economy continues a moderate recovery, aided by rising property prices which should have a multiplier effect on consumption and investment,” he said. — The Sunday Times/Asia News Network

By AARON LOW

 Related posts/articles

QE3 triggers fear of new currency wars! What it means?
New global currency wars warning!  QE3 triggers fear of new currency wars! What it means?

Malaysia's Tax Budget 2013: politically savvy for general election? Housebuyers may struggle to pay!

Beyond the statistics of Budget 2013, it is clear that the government is well aware that the middle income group has found itself in a sandwich position.

FOR some in the Malaysian middle class, especially those in the upper income bracket, there is not much to cheer about Budget 2013.

But this is a group that is not easy to please. If they have their way, they would want to have personal taxes reduced. I would want to pay less to the taxman too, but it is also about time that we wake up to the reality of having the consumption-based goods and services taxes (GST) implemented.

It may not be politically savvy to introduce the GST prior to the general election but the fact is the current tax base is simply too narrow. Just over a million people are now paying personal income tax in a country of over 27 million people.

Through the GST, the tax net would be wider and those who spend on more pricey items would just have to pay for them. An ordinary wage-earner buying economy rice or roti canai won’t have to pay GST, for sure.

But if you buy a Louis Vuitton bag in KL, then it’s only right that you pay a hefty GST bill, and help the government raise its tax revenue. If we want to encourage tourism, we just have to follow what other countries are doing – limiting GST only to our citizens. Tourists, even if they are rich sheikhs, can apply for tax refunds at the airport.

That’s how GST works, but there is a general election ahead. The government does not want to be in a defensive mode, where it has to explain how GST works.

We are always looking to pay less while we expect the government to spend more to boost the economy, or even give away monetary goodies to spur spending.

When the government spends, it has to look for money. Currency speculator George Soros is surely not a good option.

Reducing by one percentage point for those with chargeable income between RM2,500 and RM50,000, as proposed in the Budget, plus the other tax reliefs, also mean that only 1.7 million people will now pay taxes compared with the workforce of 12 million.

Beyond the statistics, it is clear that the government is well aware that the middle income group has found itself in a sandwich position. They are the ones who feel the rising cost of living the most, and any effort to reduce their tax burden should be lauded.

It is this group that the Budget wants to target. The rich can take care of themselves and the poor has been taken care of.

The higher income group would still benefit, in some way, as regardless of how much one earns, the existing tax relief for their children’s education has been increased to RM6,000 from RM4,000 per child.

But it is the financially distressed wage earners, especially those in the lower earning bracket, who are doing their best to stretch the ringgit. After paying for their home rentals, car or motorbike loans and food expenses, there is nothing left, really. Saving itself is difficult, let alone finding the downpayment for the first home.

The affordable houses scheme would be essential to allow this group of urbanites to believe that they can own houses. The government must make it work.

Another measure that is targeted at this group is the 50% discount on KTM fares for Malaysians earning RM3,000 and below monthly. I would have preferred the government to just provide a blanket free KTM ride during peak hours in the mornings and evenings.

I am curious to see how KTM plans to carry out the registration of commuters who qualify and give them the special discount cards. If it is not effectively carried out, due to practical logistic issues, this scheme is definitely open to abuse. So the government might as well just provide free rides.

The whining upper middle class won’t be joining the queues at the crowded KTM stations, that’s for sure. It will still be the same KTM passengers who want to cut down on their financial expenses because they live in the outer city zones or even in Negri Sembilan but travel daily to Kuala Lumpur to work or to study.

The 70 new 1Malaysia Clinics will surely be welcomed as they would be a great help to the urban poor. Furthermore, 350 clinics would be upgraded and an additional 150 dialysis machines will be made available in government haemodialysis centres nationwide. All measures to improve healthcare facilities for the masses are surely welcomed.

But there is one area where the whining from the Malaysian middle class is legitimate – the crime problem.

We have repealed laws such as the Emer­gency Ordinance because the intelligentsia in urban areas demanded it. But the reality is that many of the Simpang Renggam graduates are now on the streets and the police cannot find these crooks because their hands are tied.

Budget 2013 has allocated for 496 CCTV cameras to be installed in 25 local authorities nationwide to prevent street crime in urban areas. This is like a drop in the ocean and surely insufficient.

We should have thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of these cameras put up, as in London, to keep an eye on potential criminals.

As I write this, I have just been informed that my colleague had his new car hijacked by two men while he was on his way home with his wife and son in Subang Jaya. Incidents like this point to the necessity of having more of our policemen out on patrol.

The proposal to increase the number of police personnel for patrolling and combating crime is in the right direction. The police also have to review how police reports are made so that a person making a simple report about a car accident, or a lost handbag, does not have to compete with people making reports for serious offences. We need to put our policemen on the streets, not behind desks.

Let us consider making Rela, the civil service group, and volunteer policemen take over simple tasks like crowd and traffic control. The Budget has proposed an additional 10,000 officers for the Police Volunteer Reserve force. This is not something new but it will definitely reduce the unnecessary burden on the police.

On the Beat By Wong Chun Wai

 

HBA: Housebuyers may struggle to pay

Among the goodies were the building of 123,000 affordable homes at a cost RM1.9bil in key locations such as Kuala Lumpur, Shah Alam, Johor Baru, Seremban and Kuantan. The houses will cost between RM100,000 and RM400,000 each.

THE National Housebuyers Asso­ciation (HBA) has warned that house-buyers may struggle to service monthly loan payments if they buy homes under the My First Home scheme.

An applicant with a household income of RM5,000 a month, or a couple with a combined income of RM10,000, will not be able to afford the monthly repayments of a RM400,000 housing loan based on a 30-year repayment period after taking into account other household expenses and mandatory tax payments, said its secretary-general Chang Kim Loong.

Chang said applicants who commit to housing loans of RM400,000 with an average interest rate of 4.75% would end up having to pay RM2,086 each month.

“Based on Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) guidelines, a single loan repayment cannot exceed one third of the applicant, or joint applicant’s gross income.

“It would also be a potential disaster for a household which cannot afford to fork out the 10% down payment from their savings to commit to a RM400,000 loan,” he said.

He said house buyers should always match the repayment period with the number of remaining years they expect to work.

Otherwise, he said, the applicants would not be able to retire, or end up committing their children to continue paying the loan.

On PR1MA, he said, the price cap of RM400,000 for homes was too high.

“PR1MA should be pricing their properties below RM300K, preferably in the range of RM150K to RM300K to cater to a wider base of the middle-income and lower-income groups,” he said.

Related post:

A promising Malaysian tax budget for 2013 this Friday?