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Saturday, July 21, 2012

Anarchy in the financial markets!

 If regulators don't fix the lawlessness in international financial markets, future losses might us all in

THE lawlessness that pervades the international banking industry and especially the large Western banks must raise serious questions as to what perpetuates such barbarous behaviour among the custodians of people's money.

A big part of it is that the banking industry operates on greed rewarding its key employees via commissions for businesses brought in, deals made, and products sold even if they were dubious in the first place.

This encourages among the industry a bunch of highly dishonest salesman who shield themselves behind a veil of professionalism to dupe and seduce customers into believing their products are good and their processes are strong, secure and fair.

And they are aided by ineffectual regulators who parrot the trite phrase that free markets should not be overly regulated but turn a blind eye when the biggest financial institutions amass massive positions to fix markets and deceive customers, making a mockery of market freedom.

The Angel of Independence monument stands in front of HSBC’s headquarters in Mexico City. Europe’s biggest bank has been found laundering billion of dollars for drug cartels, terrorists and socalled pariah states, in a scandal which almost overshadows the Barclays’ one. — Reuters

The integrity of free markets was compromised because big players could affect the direction of markets, making the markets way less than perfect. Free markets basically became unfettered freedom to make money even at the expense of the market and the potential collapse of the world's financial system.

They did it yet again or to be more accurate they did it earlier but their misdeeds surfaced once more recently. UK's Barclay's bank made a US$453mil settlement with regulatory authorities in the United Kingdom and the United States for fixing the London interbank offered rate (Libor).

Now, it turns out that Barclay's may not be the only one. According to a Reuter's report, other major banks are likely to be involved and may try and go for a group settlement with regulators, the US' Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the UK's Financial Services Authority.

The banks being investigated include top names such as Citigroup, HSBC, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase. They all declined to comment to Reuters.

And one of these banks, Europe's biggest HSBC, has been found laundering billion of dollars for drug cartels, terrorists and so-called pariah states, in a scandal which almost overshadows the Barclays' one. That leads to the question of whether other banks were involved as well.

If they jointly fixed the Libor, the world's most used reference rate for borrowings and derivatives with an estimated US$550 trillion, yes trillion, of assets and derivatives tied to the rate, it will be a scandal of epic proportions and may result in settlements of an estimated US$20bil-US$40bil.

That settlement will only scratch the surface. Just 0.1% of US$550 trillion is US$550bil. That implies that if banks had been able to fraudulently fix Libor so that it was just 0.1 percentage points higher, customers throughout the world would have had to pay US$550bil more in interest charges in a year.

In March this year, five US banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, made a landmark US$25bil settlement with the US government for foreclosure abuses.

Even so, only a small fraction of affected house buyers are expected to benefit from this. Many other banks, however, are relatively unaffected and have not been fully called to account for their role in the US subprime crisis, which could have caused a collapse of the world's financial system.

Banks which bundled together risky housing loans into credit derivative products and passed them off as those with higher credit rating than their individual ratings, aided by ratings agencies, got off scot free. No one was called to account.

That the financial system is still vulnerable and that all gaps have still not been closed is JP Morgan's recent loss of up to US$4bil from rogue trading by a London trader going by the name of The Whale.

There needs to be a new set of rules, regulations and behaviour one based on ethics, honesty, competency and checks and balances. Custodians of public money should be required to be above all else honest first and foremost.

They should be consummate professionals whose first duty should be to protect the deposits of customers and the bank's capital. They should not do anything which puts the bank at undue risk.

The insidious habit of rewarding those who bring in revenue with hefty commissions have to be stopped so that bankers do not take risks which put their banks at undue risk which will eventually require trillion of dollars in rescue from governments.

Regulators should again make clear demarcations between those financial institutions who are custodians of public money and those who are not and hold the former to much higher standards of accountability and integrity.

Shareholders of financial institutions who are custodians of public money should be led to expect a lower rate of return on their investments but they should also be led to expect a lower corresponding rate of risk befitting that of major institutions which are so vital for the proper functioning of the economy.

Enforcers should focus on bringing individuals responsible for these losses to book and throwing criminal charges at them which will put them behind bars for long periods of time, befitting their severity. Society at large tends to treat white-collar criminals with kid gloves.

When derivatives trading and deception brought major Wall Street firms such as Enron and WorldCom to their knees and eventual collapse in the early 2000s, enforcers brought to book key executives who are spending time behind bars.

But despite the near collapse of the world's financial system, despite fraudulent behaviour, despite misrepresentation and deception, despite selling structured products of dubious value and then promptly taking positions against them, despite fixing of reference interest rates, despite money laundering and despite many other crimes still to be unearthed, no one has been brought to account.

Fining institutions leaves those individuals responsible free. In fact, settlements made come with the agreement that there will be no prosecution of individual bank staff and gives major incentive for others to do the same.

They are safe in the belief that the institution will pay the price and they will go free in the event things turn wrong. Otherwise, they will end up millionaires and even billionaires. How convenient an arrangement!

There is anarchy in the financial markets and a state of lawlessness which encourages heists of unimaginable proportions without risk of punishment. If we don't watch it, the losses will do the world economy, and all of us, in.

A Question of Business
By P. GUNASEGARAM

> Independent consultant and writer P. Gunasegaram (t.p.guna@gmail.com) is amazed that people can get away with so much by just repeating two words: free markets.

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Friday, July 20, 2012

Malaysia's Days in the Sun - WSJ

New York, Hong Kong, London...Kuala Lumpur? Malaysia is going gangbusters. Now, it must sustain the momentum.



The Southeast Asian nation is home to the world's second and third largest initial public offerings this year—the $3.3 billion listing of Felda Global Ventures 5222.KU 0.00% and IHH Healthcare's $2 billion IPO. Meanwhile, the benchmark KLCI hit a record Wednesday after rising almost 7% this year.

State backing for Malaysian equities is a factor. Felda's IPO was largely bought by government-backed investors such as individual Malaysian states. Mandatory retirement savings boosts domestic pension funds that typically invest a lot in the local market too.

The economy is also performing well. Unemployment is low. Inflation is benign at about 2%. Gross domestic product growth is around 5%. That is important because the Malaysian stock market is mainly comprised of domestically focused companies.

Diverse exports are also relatively robust. Commodities like palm oil, petroleum and gas make up about a quarter of exports, while electronics and manufactured goods make up the rest. HSBC notes that Malaysia's exports are down just 2% since last August, compared to a 13% aggregate decline for shipments from Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.

The country's banks look healthy too. Asset quality is strong and deleveraging by European banks isn't a big threat, says Moody's. "Their claims on the Malaysian economy amount to a mere 5% of GDP," notes the rating company.

Still, there are risks that warrant caution. A prolonged slump in global trade would hurt. Net exports are equal to about 16% of GDP—much higher than the ratio for neighbors such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

Politics is a wildcard too. Prime Minister Najib Razak wants to improve infrastructure and boost investment in sectors including oil and gas and tourism. Investors must hope that agenda stays on track regardless of the outcome of an election expected by early 2013.

Much of the good news may be priced in. Malaysia's benchmark stock index trades at about 15 times current earnings. Some analysts say that is rich. Malaysia has momentum. But much now depends on domestic politics and the depth of the weakness in global trade.

Write to Cynthia Koons at cynthia.koons@wsj.com

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Penang top politician's life tough?

Life’s tough at the top

Instead of ruling with skill and deftness, what comes out of Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng's office is a steady rush of statements blaming the previous government or baiting its arch foes, MCA or Gerakan.

MANAGING success has been a difficult learning curve for DAP, once the country's premier Opposition party but now a ruling party in Penang and significant partner of a Pakatan Rakyat-ruling coalition in Selangor.

The Opposition party, founded in 1965, was swept into power on the back of the 2008 tsunami to lead Penang.

It came to the job with an image as a party preaching transparency and accountability but now after four plus rough years in power, DAP seems to be struggling to cope with its initial success, at least that's the perception.

Governing can be tough and DAP has been the first to admit that the honeymoon is long over. Party secretary-general and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng admitted in his first 100 days in power that it is a tough act to balance the different racial and socio-economic forces in the state. He had confessed that ruling was indeed tough and he had a steep learning curve.

Today, his administration, which was brimming with euphoria in 2008, is stuck on its own rails, unable to break free to energise the people of Penang a victim of its own success.

Instead of ruling with skill and deftness, what comes out of the 28th floor of Komtar, where Lim sits, is a steady rush of statements blaming the previous government or baiting its arch foes, MCA or Gerakan.

While the rank-and-file party members throughout the country will be pleased with the constant baiting game, some of his own party members in Penang, who are either born in Penang or have put deep roots in the state, are not amused.

A Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst said: “I think the Chief Minister is in the process of transformation. He needs to act and talk more like a CM because right now he can't shed his combative, street fighter behaviour.”

Middle-class Penangites, whose living environment and homes are being threatened by hillside development, are not pleased. They want the state government to come to grips with this emotive issue.

It does not matter which government gave the approvals, what is more important is what is being done to put matters right.

The Chief Minister is caught in his own blame game, unable to get out of it to address the concerns of the people while some of his colleagues try their best to address the issues.

They hold dialogues, express concern and vow to do something about hillside development. But the statements coming out of the 28th floor just get more combative and provoking.

While the party's rank-and-file is happy, the statements infuriate the house-owning voters of Penang.

A Penang Chinese newspaper editor said: “Lim Guan Eng is so sure of the support he is getting from the Penang Chinese, who forms the majority, I do not think he really bothers what the press thinks of him. That's the reality.”

A large section of Malays, however, is alienated with the constant blame game in which they are not interested and want to see support for Islam, leadership of mosques and low-cost house ownership.

The escalating prices of houses and condominiums in the state are beyond the reach of most Malays as well as many Indians and some Chinese. The housing situation is no longer sustainable and potentially explosive.

As land is a state matter, they all look to the state government to make houses affordable but prices just keep escalating.

Furthermore, for the Malays, the abrupt resignation of DAP vice-chairman Tunku Abdul Aziz Tunku Ibrahim in May citing “irreconcilable differences” has cast doubts on the party's multi-racial image.

DAP's plan to woo Malays in large numbers is effectively derailed.

“One or two Malay leaders in DAP does not make it multi-racial or reflective of Malay support. The likelihood is that the Chinese on the island will back DAP but on the Malay-majority mainland, the votes will go to Barisan Nasional or Umno to be more precise.”

The loss of Tunku Aziz, a former vice-chairman of Transparency International, who joined DAP in 2008, was incalculable.

For the Indians, who can make or break the winner or loser in four parliamentary and eight state seats, the on-going feud between DAP chairman Karpal Singh and Penang Deputy Chief Minister Dr P. Ramasamy is an eye-opener. It shows that DAP is also rife with battles of ego and personality.

Lim himself is caught in a controversy of his own but has denied having an affair with a former staff member who was later transferred out of his office.

Initially, he threatened to sue anybody who even asked him about Ng Phaik Kheng, also known as Rainbow, but later, he and his wife Betty Chew, a Malacca state assemblyman, came out to strongly deny it.

For weeks, blogs and Facebook users had a field day speculating on the matter and Ng's “no comment” answer only fuelled more speculation.

However, another political analyst said the controversy had no political impact and only made good gossip, adding that he was against the use of personal issues in any campaign. But perception is everything in politics and politicians more than anybody else know this intrinsically.

The DAP image, which was seen as squeaky clean when it came to power in 2008, has been dented in the four years that it has been in power.

Most political parties, after working hard for years to win power, however, fail to manage the success properly, losing at the more imaginative work of balancing different forces.

It is even more difficult to retain power because of shifting public perception, which is what Lim has to contend with in the next general election. Lim looks set to retain his Penang power base but the test will be whether his PKR and PAS allies can hold on to their seats to give him support in the state.

COMMENT By BARADAN KUPPUSAMY
baradan@pc.jaring.my


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