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Friday, July 20, 2012

Malaysia's Days in the Sun - WSJ

New York, Hong Kong, London...Kuala Lumpur? Malaysia is going gangbusters. Now, it must sustain the momentum.



The Southeast Asian nation is home to the world's second and third largest initial public offerings this year—the $3.3 billion listing of Felda Global Ventures 5222.KU 0.00% and IHH Healthcare's $2 billion IPO. Meanwhile, the benchmark KLCI hit a record Wednesday after rising almost 7% this year.

State backing for Malaysian equities is a factor. Felda's IPO was largely bought by government-backed investors such as individual Malaysian states. Mandatory retirement savings boosts domestic pension funds that typically invest a lot in the local market too.

The economy is also performing well. Unemployment is low. Inflation is benign at about 2%. Gross domestic product growth is around 5%. That is important because the Malaysian stock market is mainly comprised of domestically focused companies.

Diverse exports are also relatively robust. Commodities like palm oil, petroleum and gas make up about a quarter of exports, while electronics and manufactured goods make up the rest. HSBC notes that Malaysia's exports are down just 2% since last August, compared to a 13% aggregate decline for shipments from Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.

The country's banks look healthy too. Asset quality is strong and deleveraging by European banks isn't a big threat, says Moody's. "Their claims on the Malaysian economy amount to a mere 5% of GDP," notes the rating company.

Still, there are risks that warrant caution. A prolonged slump in global trade would hurt. Net exports are equal to about 16% of GDP—much higher than the ratio for neighbors such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

Politics is a wildcard too. Prime Minister Najib Razak wants to improve infrastructure and boost investment in sectors including oil and gas and tourism. Investors must hope that agenda stays on track regardless of the outcome of an election expected by early 2013.

Much of the good news may be priced in. Malaysia's benchmark stock index trades at about 15 times current earnings. Some analysts say that is rich. Malaysia has momentum. But much now depends on domestic politics and the depth of the weakness in global trade.

Write to Cynthia Koons at cynthia.koons@wsj.com

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Penang top politician's life tough?

Life’s tough at the top

Instead of ruling with skill and deftness, what comes out of Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng's office is a steady rush of statements blaming the previous government or baiting its arch foes, MCA or Gerakan.

MANAGING success has been a difficult learning curve for DAP, once the country's premier Opposition party but now a ruling party in Penang and significant partner of a Pakatan Rakyat-ruling coalition in Selangor.

The Opposition party, founded in 1965, was swept into power on the back of the 2008 tsunami to lead Penang.

It came to the job with an image as a party preaching transparency and accountability but now after four plus rough years in power, DAP seems to be struggling to cope with its initial success, at least that's the perception.

Governing can be tough and DAP has been the first to admit that the honeymoon is long over. Party secretary-general and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng admitted in his first 100 days in power that it is a tough act to balance the different racial and socio-economic forces in the state. He had confessed that ruling was indeed tough and he had a steep learning curve.

Today, his administration, which was brimming with euphoria in 2008, is stuck on its own rails, unable to break free to energise the people of Penang a victim of its own success.

Instead of ruling with skill and deftness, what comes out of the 28th floor of Komtar, where Lim sits, is a steady rush of statements blaming the previous government or baiting its arch foes, MCA or Gerakan.

While the rank-and-file party members throughout the country will be pleased with the constant baiting game, some of his own party members in Penang, who are either born in Penang or have put deep roots in the state, are not amused.

A Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst said: “I think the Chief Minister is in the process of transformation. He needs to act and talk more like a CM because right now he can't shed his combative, street fighter behaviour.”

Middle-class Penangites, whose living environment and homes are being threatened by hillside development, are not pleased. They want the state government to come to grips with this emotive issue.

It does not matter which government gave the approvals, what is more important is what is being done to put matters right.

The Chief Minister is caught in his own blame game, unable to get out of it to address the concerns of the people while some of his colleagues try their best to address the issues.

They hold dialogues, express concern and vow to do something about hillside development. But the statements coming out of the 28th floor just get more combative and provoking.

While the party's rank-and-file is happy, the statements infuriate the house-owning voters of Penang.

A Penang Chinese newspaper editor said: “Lim Guan Eng is so sure of the support he is getting from the Penang Chinese, who forms the majority, I do not think he really bothers what the press thinks of him. That's the reality.”

A large section of Malays, however, is alienated with the constant blame game in which they are not interested and want to see support for Islam, leadership of mosques and low-cost house ownership.

The escalating prices of houses and condominiums in the state are beyond the reach of most Malays as well as many Indians and some Chinese. The housing situation is no longer sustainable and potentially explosive.

As land is a state matter, they all look to the state government to make houses affordable but prices just keep escalating.

Furthermore, for the Malays, the abrupt resignation of DAP vice-chairman Tunku Abdul Aziz Tunku Ibrahim in May citing “irreconcilable differences” has cast doubts on the party's multi-racial image.

DAP's plan to woo Malays in large numbers is effectively derailed.

“One or two Malay leaders in DAP does not make it multi-racial or reflective of Malay support. The likelihood is that the Chinese on the island will back DAP but on the Malay-majority mainland, the votes will go to Barisan Nasional or Umno to be more precise.”

The loss of Tunku Aziz, a former vice-chairman of Transparency International, who joined DAP in 2008, was incalculable.

For the Indians, who can make or break the winner or loser in four parliamentary and eight state seats, the on-going feud between DAP chairman Karpal Singh and Penang Deputy Chief Minister Dr P. Ramasamy is an eye-opener. It shows that DAP is also rife with battles of ego and personality.

Lim himself is caught in a controversy of his own but has denied having an affair with a former staff member who was later transferred out of his office.

Initially, he threatened to sue anybody who even asked him about Ng Phaik Kheng, also known as Rainbow, but later, he and his wife Betty Chew, a Malacca state assemblyman, came out to strongly deny it.

For weeks, blogs and Facebook users had a field day speculating on the matter and Ng's “no comment” answer only fuelled more speculation.

However, another political analyst said the controversy had no political impact and only made good gossip, adding that he was against the use of personal issues in any campaign. But perception is everything in politics and politicians more than anybody else know this intrinsically.

The DAP image, which was seen as squeaky clean when it came to power in 2008, has been dented in the four years that it has been in power.

Most political parties, after working hard for years to win power, however, fail to manage the success properly, losing at the more imaginative work of balancing different forces.

It is even more difficult to retain power because of shifting public perception, which is what Lim has to contend with in the next general election. Lim looks set to retain his Penang power base but the test will be whether his PKR and PAS allies can hold on to their seats to give him support in the state.

COMMENT By BARADAN KUPPUSAMY
baradan@pc.jaring.my


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Huduh is good for Malaysia?

Enough with hudud

The growing number of politicians in this country who think that hudud is a good idea for Malaysia should see the video that is circulating online of the execution of an Afghan woman by her husband for alleged adultery.

HERE is a video circulating online which everyone in this country should watch:



It depicts the execution of an Afghan woman for alleged adultery. Her husband shoots her many times in the head while being cheered on by a crowd of men.

If anyone thinks this happened many years ago during the Taliban–era, they are sadly mistaken.
This gruesome event happened recently, in present-day non-Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

The authorities are now looking for the executioner who has predictably disappeared. But really they should arrest the entire crowd that watched it, as accessories to murder.

I think this video should be shown to the growing number of politicians in this country who think hudud is a good idea for Malaysia. In particular, it should be shown to those who have just called for the same.

If they can watch the video without at least blanching and truly think that’s what they want, then I hope they will be held accountable for not only the exodus of Malaysians from this country but also for the drastic reduction in foreign investments coming in.

If they want to blow us back to the Stone Age, then they should at least be made to answer for it.

What is it with some of our politicians who seem to have taken leave of their senses?

Is the loathing for reading and knowledge so widespread that they have to show it off with such ill-informed statements?

In a world where problems are increasingly sophisticated and complicated, is hudud the only response these people can come up with?

Maybe they should get out a bit more.

They might like to travel to places like Pakistan where the literacy rate is all of 55% and where, in some areas, only 22% of women can read.

Or, go to Iran where a full 40% of the population lives below the poverty line. They might also like to notice the vast numbers of children forced to do backbreaking work in the Middle East.

Or they can stay home and instead of reading the tabloids and beefing up their knowledge on which actress is about to marry which rich man, they might like to read up on our very own Federal Constitution which basically says that not only can’t you have hudud laws, you also can’t impose it on anyone who isn’t Muslim.

Unless they have some subconscious need to lose the elections for their beloved party, then they might pause and see where this is going.

But introspection is not a Malaysian strong point.

Somebody floats an “idea” that they think will attract some press attention and next thing you know, everyone else is jumping on the bandwagon.

Never mind that none of the so-called hudud punishments can be found in the Quran.

For years, our Government has steadily pooh-poohed the idea of having hudud in this country because that was what the Opposition (or at least some of them) wanted. For years those of us who knew that hudud did not belong in the 21st century have held on to that as our bulwark against theocratic rule in this country.

Now, however, the government supporters have changed their tune and are echoing the Opposition’s line all those years ago. They seriously think this is the way to win an election?

If hudud is to be implemented, then I hope someone realises that it has to be implemented fairly.

Therefore not only will petty thieves get their hands cut off but major-league million-ringgit bribe-takers too. And no doubt we will have morality police patrolling the streets and checking that everyone is being good.

MUSINGS
By MARINA MAHATHIR 


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