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Monday, April 23, 2012

UNCTAD conference starts amid Uncertainty

The 13th UNCTAD conference began last weekend with an impressive turnout of political leaders but there are tense undercurrents below the surface calm.

THE ministerial meeting of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) kicked off to a good start last Saturday with an opening session marked by a modern play and dance depicting the inequalities of the modern world, and with speeches by an impressive group of political leaders, including the Emir of Qatar, the President of Tunisia who came to power in the wake of the Arab Spring, and the Prime Ministers of Turkey and Bangladesh.

Most of them stressed the need to rethink the model of economic growth that was driven by a financial system that is now seen as dysfunctional and by a pattern of development that may be economically and environmentally unsustainable.

This is echoed in the theme of the UNCTAD conference, known as UNCTAD XIII because it is the 13th in a series of high-level sessions, held once in four years, since the founding in 1964 of this most important of United Nations development organisation.

The UNCTAD XIII theme is “Development-led globalisation: Towards sustainable and inclusive development paths.”

The conference report of the UNCTAD secretary-general, Supachai Panitchpakdi, speaks of a “world turned upside down”.

Much of it criticised the way globalisation had been driven by speculative finance, which has destabilised the world economy but also damaged development in developing countries.

The report advocated the start of a new era, of a development-led globalisation in which the state has to resume its leading role in development, with a new North-South deal based on taming the financial sector, turning trade and investment towards development, managing new threats and there is more democratic governance of the world economy.

Many sessions have already been held, with ministers, business leaders and academics debating investment promotion and investment agreements, the global environment influencing development, trade and poverty.

On Sunday, the UN General Assembly President Nassir Abdulaziz Al-Nasser, opened the main plenary, re-affirming the leading role of UNCTAD on trade and development issues in the UN system.

However, below the surface calm, there is an undercurrent of a tense atmosphere because of the uncertainties surrounding the main outcome of UNCTAD XIII, a declaration of ministers that spells out the main issues of the present and the main functions of UNCTAD in future.

The latest draft of this declaration, dated April 21, shows how far the countries are from agreement on many issues, both in stating the problems the world faces and in the future role of UNCTAD on these issues.

It is evident from this draft that developed countries, especially the group known as JZ (that includes the US, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland), are proposing to delete or severely dilute the text in many areas.

If their proposals are accepted, the future role of UNCTAD may be seriously curtailed.

This is being resisted by developing countries and their Group of 77 and China, which want to retain UNCTAD’s mandate to work on its present broad range of issues.

The most notable divisions, along North-South lines, are the following:

The G77 wants UNCTAD XIII to reaffirm the Accra Accord of 2008 adopted at the previous UNCTAD session, and to build on it. This will allow UNCTAD to continue work on all the issues it presently deals with.

However, the JZ group wants to delete “reaffirm” and keep “builds upon”, implying that there is no agreement to maintain the present mandate.

The text has only two simple paragraphs on the financial crisis, and the need to connect finance to the real economy, which JZ wants to delete. JZ and the European Union also want to delete another paragraph on the role of UNCTAD to contribute to the UN’s work in addressing the causes and effects of the economic crisis.

The paragraphs on the work of UNCTAD on debt, debt restructuring and responsible lending are also being diluted or deleted by developed countries.

The JZ group wants to delete UNCTAD’s work in servicing the GSTP, the South-South trade preference scheme of developing countries.

There is only one paragraph referring to UNCTAD’s work on intellectual property and development. The JZ and EU propose deletion of this.

Similarly JZ proposes deletion of the only reference to the important role of industrial policies.

There is also deletion or dilution of UNCTAD’s work on environment and sustainable development, such as climate change and the follow up to the Rio Plus 20 summit.

Other areas of dilution include food and agriculture, preferences to least developed countries, technology transfer, traditional knowledge and genetic resources.

At a meeting of Ministers of the G77 and China on April 20, it was agreed that the developing countries’ group will maintain its stand that the Accra Accord be reaffirmed and that there should be no dilution of the issues.

This is to be expected, because the G77 and China consider UNCTAD to be their organisation. Indeed, it was the formation of UNCTAD in 1964 that led to the birth of the G77 and China itself.

A puzzling question is why some of the developed countries are so adamant on eroding the mandate and work of UNCTAD.

It is well known that UNCTAD is not the developed countries’ favourite organisation, since its secretariat has continuously produced research that flies in the face of the orthodox policies of organisations they control, especially the World Bank and IMF.

But then the work of UNCTAD, which has often proved correct, is even more important today, when the old economic theories are crumbling and the traditional policies are being reviewed.

UNCTAD has proved it can contribute immensely to the new ideas so much needed.

What if there is no agreement on the draft Declaration?

That would be a setback not only to UNCTAD but the whole framework of international cooperation, which is also much needed in these turbulent times for the global economy.

Thus, it is hoped that all the countries at UNCTAD XIII will this week agree on a good declaration in Doha.

GLOBAL TRENDS BY MARTIN KHOR

China's warns US of Confrontation over South China Sea

Top military paper in China warns US of confrontation over South China Sea


BEIJING China's top military newspaper warned the United States on Saturday that US-Philippine military exercises have fanned risks of armed confrontation over the disputed South China Sea.

The commentary in China's Liberation Army Daily falls short of a formal government statement, but marks the harshest high-level warning yet from Beijing about tensions with the Philippines over disputed seas where both countries have recently sent ships to assert their claims.

Dotted red line shows vast area claimed by China. The PHL, which is claiming some islands, has begun calling the region the West Philippine Sea. GMA News

This week American and Filipino troops launched a fortnight of annual naval drills amid the stand-off between Beijing and Manila, who have accused each other of encroaching on sovereign seas near Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal), about 200 kilometers west of the former U.S. naval base at Subic Bay.

The joint exercises are held in different seas around the Philippines; the leg that takes place in the South China Sea area starts on Monday.

"Anyone with clear eyes saw long ago that behind these drills is reflected a mentality that will lead the South China Sea issue down a fork in the road towards military confrontation and resolution through armed force," said the commentary in the Chinese paper, which is the chief mouthpiece of the People's Liberation Army.

"Through this kind of meddling and intervention, the United States will only stir up the entire South China Sea situation towards increasing chaos, and this will inevitably have a massive impact on regional peace and stability."

Up to now, China has chided the Philippines over the dispute about the uninhabited shoal known in the Philippines as Panatag Shoal and which China calls Huangyan Island, about 124 nautical miles off the main Philippine island of Luzon.



 
"The United States' intention of trying to draw more countries into stirring up the situation in the South China Sea is being brandished to the full," it said.

Regional tensions

Beijing has sought to resolve the disputes one-on-one but there is worry among its neighbors over what some see as growing Chinese assertiveness in staking claims over the seas and various islands, reefs and shoals.

In past patches of regional tension over disputed seas, hawkish Chinese military voices have also emerged, only to be later reined in by the government, and the same could be true this time.

Since late 2010, China has sought to cool tensions with the United States over regional disputes, trade and currency policies, human rights and other contentious issues. Especially with the ruling Chinese Party preoccupied with a leadership succession late in 2012, Beijing has stressed its hopes for steady relations throughout this year.

Nonetheless, experts have said that China remains wary of U.S. military intentions across the Asia-Pacific, especially in the wake of the Obama administration's vows to "pivot" to the region, reinvigorating diplomatic and security ties with allies.

The Liberation Army Daily commentary echoed that wariness.

"The U.S. strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific carries the implication of a shift in military focus, and there is no better strategic opening than China's sovereignty disputes with the Philippines and other countries in the South China Sea," said the newspaper.



China has territorial disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan in the South China Sea, which could be rich in oil and gas and is spanned by busy shipping lanes.

By CHRIS BUCKLEY, Reuters with GMA News/ HS

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Sunday, April 22, 2012

French head to polls in presidential election

First round voting begins in overseas territories as incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy appears set to face a stern test.



More than 44 million French voters are to go to the polls for the first round of a presidential election that represents a serious threat to incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy's tenure in the post.

While predictions of a high abstention rate and a strong protest vote have left the outcome uncertain, opinion polls point towards Francois Hollande, Sarkozy's main Socialist challenger, replacing his conservative rival.

The two 57-year-old political leaders are on course to finish in the top two in Sunday's polling, thus setting them up to square off in a second round vote on May 6.
The result of that vote will decide who is France's president for the next five years.

Voting began on Saturday in France's overseas territories, which are mainly islands dotted around the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

On Sunday, voting will continue in 85,000 polling stations across the country's European mainland. Voting will begin at 8am local time (06:00 GMT) and continue until 8pm (18:00 GMT).

Voting estimates will then be immediately published, giving what has been a traditionally accurate assessment of how the polls will stand once results are finalised.

In all, 10 candidates are in the race, with Hollande and Sarkozy trailed by far-right leader Marine Le Pen, hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon and veteran centrist Francois Bayrou. A handful of outsiders round out the field.

Once the first round is over, the top two candidates will face each other in the final poll, with the run-up to that including a televised debate.

Spotlight coverage of April 22 presidential election
Hollande says that Sarkozy has trapped France in a spiral of austerity and job losses, and has called for the European response to the debt crisis to be more pro-growth.

Sarkozy, meanwhile, says that his rival is weak-willed and would spark panic in financial markets by adopting an approach that involves increased government spending.

Al Jazeera's Tim Friend, reporting from Paris, said that Sarkozy faces a stiff challenge due to his "extraordinary" unpopularity.

"A lot of the people voting will be putting their ballot paper into the ballot box more against Sarkozy than perhaps for the candidate they eventually vote for," he said.

Since Saturday, there has been no sign of any of the rhetoric that has characterised an increasingly heated contest, as French law prohibits campaigning and opinion polls on the eve of voting.

Voters went about their business without being accosted by pamphleteers, the campaigns' websites, Facebook pages and Twitter feeds were left without updates and broadcasters had to find other subjects to interview.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies
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