Malaysia's 13th General Election Tell-tale signs, by June or next year?

Tell-tale signs that polls are getting close

Sunday Star, PETALING JAYA: So when will the next general election be held?

Very soon, judging by developments in the last few days.

Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced the halving of toll between Kajang and Kuala Lumpur effective yesterday, just months after the Prime Minister abolished it altogether for the Cheras-Petaling Jaya expressway.

On Tuesday, amid news of growth, it was disclosed that investors have pledged RM9bil in projects in the first two months of the year in the ECER the East Coast Economic Region comprising Johor, Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan.

Now, the Government is coming to the rescue of commuters in Kelantan with an injection of RM16.1mil to keep bus services in the PAS-controlled state afloat.

This comes on top of ongoing aid programmes, including giving RM500 to families earning less than RM3,000 and RM100 to schoolchildren all of which seems to indicate that the polls could be just around the corner.

A June window period
ON THE BEAT By WONG CHUN WAI

June has suddenly become the favourite month in the guessing game of when the next general election would be called.

There are two key issues that need to be resolved before the elections can be called. They include the Public Service New Remuneration Scheme (SBPA) involving 1.4 million government servants, who form the basis of the government votes.

Last week, Tan Sri Muyhiddin Yassin said the scheme issue was expected to be resolved by next month, adding that considerable progress had been made so far by the special committee to review the scheme.

“We should wait for the right moment (for it to be announced),” he said after a special meeting with personnel from the public service at Stadium Negara.

The Prime Minister had ordered a review of the scheme after criticism from government servants that it was lopsided and only benefited top civil servants.

There had been reports that under the proposed SBPA, certain categories of senior officers would enjoy a salary increase of at least 50%, which worked out to an average of RM5,000 per month.

The top government officers in the premier grades would get their salaries adjusted by between RM30,000 and RM60,000 a month, which understandably caused much unhappiness among the rank and file.

The quick intervention of Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak to put the scheme on hold has been well received by the civil service with the sentiment that he had put a stop to what many felt was grave injustice. Much progress has since been made to end this impasse.

Muhyiddin’s announcement is pertinent as it gave an indication of how the issue has been resolved.

Another key issue is the proposed listing of Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGVH), which Felda group chairman Tan Sri Mohd Isa Abdul Samad said had received the support of its 112,000-odd settlers.

Last week, he gave an assurance that the settlers would retain full ownership of their land and benefit directly from any potential revenue realised from the listing exercise. He also said the settlers’ holdings in Koperasi Permodalan Felda (KPF) would be untouched.

The Felda settlers’ interest would be directly protected by a special purpose vehicle (SPV) and any potential proceeds resulting from the proposed listing would not be channelled through KPF, but through the SPV, he added.

KPF has about 220,000 members, 112,635 of them settlers. The rest are Felda employees and the children of settlers.

There has been talk that FGVH’s market capitalisation could reach as high as RM21bil upon listing, with many of the Felda settlers looking forward to the plans which had received huge coverage in the Bahasa Malaysia dailies.

The civil service and the Felda settlers in the rural constituencies have long been a backbone of the ruling Barisan Nasional and these two concerns obviously needed to be addressed before any elections can be called.

There is another issue that needs closure – the National Feedlot Corporation controversy, which has dogged the headlines. Investigations are being carried out by the police and the Malaysia Anti-Corruption Commission.

If elections are not called by June, then it is unlikely to take place until next year. Fasting starts at the end of July, with Hari Raya falling in the third week of August while the Haj season begins in September and ends in November.

The Dewan Rakyat is set to begin its 20-day meeting from March 12. This will be followed by a second meeting from June 11 to June 28 (12 days). The final meeting of 34 days, which includes presentation of the Budget, will be from Sept 24 to Nov 27.

The Budget, once tabled, would be debated on until next year when the Dewan Negara meets, before it is officially approved.

In short, June will be Najib’s last window period whether to call for polls. It also coincides with the school holidays, which start on May 26 and end on June 10. If nothing happens, then it is almost a foregone conclusion that it will take place next year.

Preparations for the elections appear to have gone high gear now with Najib making popular announcements almost every few days.

It is understood that the Barisan Nasional chairman has also started to meet individual heads of the various component parties.

The polls seem to be getting nearer for sure. As Najib continues his nationwide whirlwind visits, the urgency and the momentum are picking up.

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Are Malaysia a target for regime change?

COMMENT By CHANDRA MUZAFFAR

The forces that shape Washington’s attitude towards Malaysian politics and political leaders may have a hidden agenda.

IN his widely read blog (Feb 13, 2012), the former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, criticises the politics of regime change pursued by the United States of America.



He is concerned that Malaysia may also be a target for regime change. And the US candidate to head the new regime which will be in full, complete support of US policies, he says, is none other than the Leader of the Opposition, (Datuk Seri) Anwar Ibrahim.

Why should the US government seek regime change in Malaysia when the present Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, has sought to further strengthen ties with Washington?

He has even employed a Washington-based public relations firm, Apco, to boost Malaysia’s image in the US. Najib’s personal relations with US President Barack Obama are supposed to be “excellent”.

And yet it is quite conceivable that the forces that shape Washington’s attitude towards Malaysian politics and political leaders may prefer Anwar to Najib for a number of reasons.

One, while Najib may have some rapport with formal leaders and the formal state, it is Anwar who has intimate links with the “deep state” in the US system.

It is the deep state represented by powerful interests such as the Zionist lobbies, the Christian Right, the bigwigs on Wall Street, the oil barons, the arms merchants and the media Moghuls which is in effective control.

To appreciate the distinction between the two, one has to reflect on Obama’s Cairo speech on June 4, 2009, which stated explicitly that “The United States does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements” but in reality the formal leader has had to yield to the Zionists and the Christian Right who are enthusiastic promoters of Zionist expansion at the expense of the Palestinians.

Anwar’s entry into the deep state was through his close friendship with Paul Wolfowitz, the former US Deputy Secretary of Defence and one of the staunchest champions of Zionist power.

It was mainly because of Wolfowitz that Anwar became the first chairman of the Foundation for the Future in 2005, an organisation established ostensibly to promote democracy in West Asia and North Africa (WANA), but whose real purpose is to perpetuate US-Israeli hegemony over the region.

Even before this, in 1998, in the midst of the Asian financial crisis, Anwar was espousing an IMF-type solution to the nation’s economic woes, thus revealing his political orientation.

This is why during his first two trials for abuse of power and sodomy between 1998 and 2004 and during his recent trial for sodomy, the mainstream Western media went out of its way to demand that the Malaysian authorities acquit Anwar.

Wolfowitz and former US Vice-President, Al Gore even penned a joint opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Aug 4, 2010, urging the US government to persuade the Malaysian Government to “ act with wisdom” in Anwar’s trial.

A day before he was acquitted, on Jan 8, 2012, The Washington Post in an editorial warned that “If the verdict fails that test (Malaysia’s commitment to democracy and the rule of law), there should be consequences for Mr Najib’s relations with Washington.”

This was an undisguised, unabashed attempt by one of the media pillars of the deep state to pressurise a sovereign nation to submit to its will.

Two, if Anwar is the darling of the deep state in the US, it is partly because of his stand on Israel. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Jan 26, 2012, he reiterated his support for “all efforts to protect the security of the state of Israel”.

It should be emphasised here that support for Israeli security – contrary to what he is saying now – was not contingent on “Israel respecting the aspirations of the Palestinians”.

In the interview, Israel’s security stands by itself. It is diplomatic recognition of Israel that Anwar links to Palestinian aspirations.

Placing Israel’s security on a pedestal is the sort of gesture that the deep state and Zionists the world over laud, especially if the advocate is a Muslim leader. For Israel’s security has become the justification for all its policies of occupation, annexation and aggression in the last 63 years.

Israel’s security is the albatross around the neck of the dispossessed Palestinians and other Arabs who have lost their land and dignity to the occupying power.

It is obvious that by acknowledging the primacy of Israeli security, Anwar was sending a clear message to the deep state and to Tel Aviv and Washington – that he is someone that they could trust.
In contrast, the Najib government, in spite of its attempts to get closer to Washington, remains critical of Israeli aggression and intransigence.

Najib has described the Israeli government as a “serial killer” and a “gangster”. This has incensed the deep state.

Anwar, on the other hand, told Zionist friends in Washington two years ago that he regretted using terms such as “Zionist aggression” (Jackson Diehl “Flirting with zealotry in Malaysia” The Washington Post, June 28, 2010).

Three, Anwar is the choice of the deep state for another reason which in its own reckoning is becoming almost as important as Israel. This is the rise of China and what it means for US global hegemony.

Elements within the deep state appear to have convinced Obama that China is a threat to its neighbours and to the US’s dominant role in the Asia-Pacific.

Establishing a military base in Darwin, resurrecting the US’ military alliance with the Philippines, coaxing Japan to play a more overt military role in the region, instigating Vietnam to confront China over the Spratly islands, and encouraging India to counterbalance Chinese power, are all part and parcel of the larger US agenda of encircling and containing China.

In pursuing this agenda, the US wants reliable allies – not just friends – in Asia.

In this regard, Malaysia is important because of its position as a littoral state with sovereign rights over the Straits of Malacca, which is one of China’s most critical supply routes that transports much of the oil and other materials vital for its economic development.

Will the containment of China lead to a situation where the hegemon determined to perpetuate its dominant power seek to exercise control over the Straits in order to curb China’s ascendancy?

Would a trusted ally in Kuala Lumpur facilitate such control?

The current Malaysian leadership does not fit the bill. It has sustained and deepened the bond of friendship between Malaysia and China through increased bilateral trade and investments.

China is Malaysia’s biggest trading partner globally and Malaysia is China’s biggest trading partner within Asean.

China is most appreciative of the fact that Malaysia under the late Tun Razak was the first non-communist country in South-East Asia to establish diplomatic relations with China in 1974.

When his son Najib became Prime Minister in April 2009, China was the first country outside Asean that he visited.

In a number of regional and international forums, Malaysia has maintained that China is not a threat to its neighbours and does not seek global dominance.

These are views that do not accord with the deep state’s bellicose stance towards China. It explains why the deep state may be inclined towards regime change in Kuala Lumpur.

> Dr Chandra Muzaffar is president of the International Movement for a Just World (JUST) and Professor of Global Studies, Universiti Sains Malaysia.

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See opportunities in adversity

ON YOUR OWN By TAN THIAM HOCK

I HAVE been having fun. Good fun. Five trips in the last 30 days. Holidays, business meetings, visiting my kids and watching the Il Divo concert in Jakarta with my wife. So my apologies to the readers who wrote in and have not received any reply from me.

One of my trips was to visit our supplier in Bangkok. I was pleasantly surprised when he said that his company did very well last year despite the tsunami and earthquake in Japan and the three-month flooding of Bangkok. He picked up additional Japanese customers who lost their regular suppliers because of the tsunami. Luckily for him, his factory and surroundings were not flooded, so again he picked up new customers.

No businessmen can predict how natural disasters will affect their business. There is a major element of luck. Good luck or bad luck.

I was also amazed that his company has been growing steadily through the years of continuous political turmoil in Thailand, frequent change of governments, street demonstrations, riots and street bombings. Still, it is business as usual. Especially for tourism. Their airport was crowded and immigration was horrendous. In comparison, the KLIA felt like a ghost town.

Over dinner, he explained that except for southern Thailand, the rest of the country has a homogenous society. No racial or religious issues. Only corrupted and power crazy politicians. I felt comforted. We are not alone.

All Thai companies and citizens have equal opportunity in business and education. So generally, entrepreneur wannabes can participate openly in almost every sector of the economy without government interference. Except for those businesses hijacked by politicians and their cronies. I comforted him. They are not alone

I have always joked with my Singaporean business friends that Malaysian entrepreneurs are much, much more creative than theirs. We have to be sensitive to additional external issues like religion, race and government/political business units. And only then, we start worrying about our business at hand and our real business competitors.

Singaporean entrepreneurs just have to be hardworking and efficient and they will make a good living. How boring it must be for them.

My good friend from the Philippines has gone through more hardships in his business life than all the other Asean counterparts combined. Political upheavals, natural disasters, warlords, gangsters, corrupted armies and an economically poor consumer population. But he is always wearing a smile on his face and treats each setback as a natural unavoidable event. As a devout Catholic, he feels God is always testing him.

To all those entrepreneur wannabes in Malaysia who are not sure of the type of business that you want to invest in, my advice is to go into a business that is not dominated by GLCs, a business that will not create issues with religion or race, and avoid investing in potentially natural disaster areas.

You will be stupid if you invest in residential and industrial properties in flood-prone areas or near toxic waste plants. God forbid if there is a major flood or an accident in an industrial toxic waste plant, you will be an unlucky owner of properties in a ghost town.

It is important that entrepreneurs understand the political and economic environment that your business operates in. This will greatly reduce the element of luck in your strategic planning and give you more certainty in forecasting the trend. Like my Asean friends have demonstrated, there is always opportunities in adversity or unnatural events.

For those who are looking for business opportunities, the coming 13th General Election is a big pot of gold, just in case you are not aware of it. Media companies are rubbing their hands in glee at the potential additional advertising revenue forthcoming.

Printers of outdoor materials and posters are preparing their raw materials due to short order cycles. Soft-drink and mineral water suppliers are salivating at the sharp spike in consumption. Caterers will make a killing handling all the kenduris. Coffee shops in sleepy towns, hotels and motels are prepared to raise prices at a moment's notice.

Then there is the cash handouts to the general population. Consumption of economic goods will increase substantially. Money supply in the economy will double. The general election is expected to contribute an additional 1% to our GDP growth, a point I am sure that has been accrued in our Economic Transformation Programme.

Malaysian entrepreneurs must learn from our Asean counterparts. See opportunities in adversity. Prepare for natural disasters or unnatural events. Stay calm when your environment is in crisis. Trust your luck. And you will do just fine.

● The writer is an entrepreneur who hopes to shares his experience and insights with readers who want to take that giant leap into business but are not sure if they should. Email him at thtan@alliancecosmetics.com