World Bank warning of another global recession; Mier: Worse to come!

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(Shanghai Daily)
 

THE World Bank is warning developing countries to prepare for the "real" risk that an escalation in the eurozone debt crisis could tip the world into a slump on a par with the global downturn in 2008/09.

In a report sharply cutting its world economic growth expectations, the World Bank said Europe was probably already in recession. If the debt crisis deepened, global economic forecasts would be significantly lower.

"The sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone appears to be contained," Justin Lin, chief economist for the World Bank, said in Beijing yesterday. "However, the risk of a global freezing-up of the markets as well as a global crisis similar to what happened in September 2008 is real."

The World Bank predicted world economic growth of 2.5 percent in 2012 and 3.1 percent in 2013, well below the 3.6 percent growth for each year projected in June.



"We think it is now important to think through not only slower growth but sharp deteriorations, as a prudent measure," said Hans Timmer, the bank's director of development prospects.

The report said if the eurozone debt crisis escalates, global growth would be about 4 percentage points lower. It forecast that high-income economies would expand just 1.4 percent in 2012 as the eurozone shrinks 0.3 percent, sharp revisions from growth forecasts last June of 2.7 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.

It cut its forecast for growth in developing economies to 5.4 percent for 2012 from its previous forecast of 6.2 percent.

It saw a slight pick up in growth in developing economies in 2013 to 6 percent. But the report said threats to growth were rising.

It cited failure so far to resolve high debts and deficits in Japan and the United States and slow growth in other high-income countries.

On top of that, political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa could disrupt oil supplies and add another blow to global prospects.

China's growth - forecast in the report at 8.4 percent - could help bolster imports and gives it "big fiscal space" to respond to changing conditions, Lin said.

But the World Bank report added: "No country and no region will escape the consequences of a serious downturn." 

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Mier: Worse to come

By LEONG HUNG YEE  hungyee@thestar.com.my

Eurozone crisis, slower China growth likely to hurt economy

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) expects gross domestic product (GDP) for 2011 to be 4.9% but to decelerate to 3.7% in 2012.

MIER executive director Dr Za-kariah Abdul Rashid said this year would not be as bad as 2008 or 2009 but might not be as good as 2011, pulled down by the eurozone crisis as well as slower growth in China's economy.

He said if the eurozone crisis turned worse, the country's economy might be affected and the GDP could reach the 2008/2009 level.

“There's some avenue if the Government wants to spur the economy by spending on development. It will depend on the private sector whether our economy turns out to be strong this year,” Zakariah said at a briefing to present Malaysia's economic outlook.

Zakariah: ‘The private sector has done a lot for the economy.’

“However, the private sector has done a lot for the economy. We can't expect much more from the private sector.”

He said MIER had previously forecast 2011 GDP growth to be 4.6% but revised it upwards after looking at the latest numbers and the crisis in the eurozone.

“Growth in the last quarter of 2011 is expected to be much lower on account of external developments. The latest monthly economic indicators are already suggesting that,” MIER said in a report.

It added that economic growth would likely get “bumpier” in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, Zakariah said that there was “room for 25 to 50 basis-point downward revision” in the overnight policy rate (OPR). However, he said the revision would depend on the situation and had to be done vigilantly.

Based on MIER's Business Conditions Index (BCI), the business sentiment had worsened from the second quarter of last year. The BCI fell to 96.6 in the fourth quarter of 2011, the first time it had dipped below the 100 threshold since the fourth quarter of 2010.

“It usually shows a contraction mode when the index sinks below 100. The BCI had been dropping since the second quarter of 2011,” Zakariah said.

Sales, local and foreign orders, as well as capacity utilisation were significantly lower in the fourth quarter of 2011, with companies expecting to scale back production over the next three months as inventory builds up.

Concurrently, consumer sentiment also fell to a two-year low of 106.3 on the Consumer Sentiments Index as household incomes lost momentum, and finances and job became a growing concern.

Zakariah said the index pointed out that consumers were also holding on to purchasing big tickets items as spending plans took a backseat.

Separately, Zakariah said it would be better for the Government to call for general elections early as uncertainty over the nation's political future would hurt the economy.

He said private investors were currently holding back investments on concerns that government policies could change due to the political climate here.

“If you ask me as an economist, I would rather see the problem solved once and for all. The earlier they settle the political matters, the better, we can focus on the economy.

“Right now everything is still hanging. People are postponing because of the elections. So if they settle it once and for all and immediately, it would be better,” Zakariah said.  

Ethics – an asset to justice

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Getting judges to publicly declare their assets is a significant step towards improving the integrity of our judiciary and changing the perception of the bench.

DARE to declare! That seems to be the slogan of the moment, in the wake of the move by Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and his state executive council to declare their assets publicly last week.

Based on the list of properties, investments and cars along with the loans taken, Penang is being run by a motley crew of wealthy and not-so-rich politicians.

Lim owns two shop lots in Malacca, worth RM435,000 and RM530,000 respectively and has taken RM650,000 in loans to pay for them.

He has RM298,785 in fixed deposits, with more than RM53,000 in earned interests besides investments in Amanah Mutual Bhd and Public Mutual Fund.

But there were no clues about the assets of the spouses and relatives, though. When asked about this, the CM was reported to have replied that the pledge was only for the assets of its leaders to be disclosed.

In the case of Selangor, the declaration of assets by the Mentri Besar and exco members in 2009 was basically in the form of their current earnings in salaries and allowances.

They decided not to include assets owned before the exco members held office, on the grounds of not being able to assure security for them or their family members.

Excos disclosed their assets privately to the MB’s office. The information, however, can be released for legitimate reasons, subject to conditions set and approved by the Special Select Committee on Competence, Accountability and Transparency or Selcat.

For political parties, Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) holds the record for being the first to deliver the promise of declaring the assets of its elected and appointed representatives.

Since 2008, it has made public statutory declarations about what they own.

PSM’s sole MP, Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj – who unseated MIC supremo Datuk S. Samy Vellu in Sungei Siput – has been quoted as saying: “Once you become an assemblyman or MP, you must reveal the assets of yourself, your wife and your immediate family every year.”



An increasing number of countries have adopted similar ethics and even have anti-corruption laws requiring public officials to declare their assets and income, in addition to that of their spouses and dependant children.

In the US, for instance, the main law governing this is the Ethics in Government Act of 1978.

Based on last year’s declaration, President Barack Obama has assets worth at least US$4mil (RM12.48mil).

The amount includes book royalties, retirement funds, US Treasury bills and notes and other holdings.

In Malaysia, would all elected representatives from both sides of the political divide agree to be subject to such scrutiny?

As it is, many of our YBs are seen to be extremely well-heeled. They always claim to champion the cause of the rakyat but live in mansions worth millions and lead luxurious lifestyles.

Of course, they can always declare that they were already rich before being elected or appointed.

So, instead of waiting until they are elected, why not make it mandatory for all nominated candidates for Parliament and state seats to disclose their wealth and means of income and those of their immediate family?

Perhaps one way to ensure this is through compulsion – by an Act of Parliament.

One wonders if there would still be many people clamouring to be elected representatives or appointed representatives under such rules.

But we are at least making progress when it comes to the judiciary.

Chief Justice Tan Sri Arifin Zakaria has made a laudable move towards getting judges to declare their assets.

It is indeed a significant step towards improving transparency and integrity of our judiciary and changing the current public perception of the bench.

“I’m sure all of you have nothing to fear, so we have to work together with the MACC on this matter,” the CJ said at the judges’ conference last week.

The MACC has since set up a task force to identify the process under the civil service for the implementation.

The CJ has also told judges to maintain the independence of the judiciary and not to put up with any interference, including from their spouses, when making their decisions.

According to Transparency International’s Bribe Payers Index of 2008, the judiciary was perceived by surveyed business executives to be one of the most corrupt institutions in the country.

Business executives surveyed by the World Economic Forum Global competitiveness Report 2010-2011 identified the judicial system as being under enough influence of members of government, certain individuals and companies to constitute a competitive disadvantage.

They also found the efficiency of the legal framework for private companies to settle disputes and challenge government actions and/or regulations as another disadvantage.

The CJ’s move to boost the integrity of the judiciary is noteworthy in view of such negative perceptions.

The country cannot afford to have a judiciary perceived to be ethically compromised. It would be a millstone around the neck of any anti-corruption strategy.

As such, it needs the full support and cooperation of the people, members of the Bar, the Attorney-General’s Chambers and more so from the political leaders.

> Associate Editor M. Veera Pandiyan likes to share these wise words of Gandhi: “There is a higher court than courts of justice and that is the court of conscience. It supercedes all other courts.”

Too many holidays in Malaysia?

Are workers getting too many holidays?

Question Time By P. GUNASEGARAM

Instead of griping about days off, employers should focus on improving productivity – and benefits.

Click on graphic for larger view.

ASK any person who employs other people and they will say their workers get too many days off and public holidays. Ask the workers and their answers will be exactly the opposite.

That was the scenario played out recently when employers and their associations clamoured for less public holidays while workers and their representatives demurred strongly.

Objectively, it is simply too much to expect public holidays to be reduced, especially when many private sector employers are remiss when it comes to giving workers decent pay and benefits, including leave. A few examples will illustrate this well.

Take the five-day working week. The Government has adopted this for some years now but there are many firms in Malaysia, particularly those which are Malaysian-owned, which do not practise this.

This is despite the fact that it is easy to make up the hours for a Saturday half day by working just half an hour to 45 minutes more on the other working days.

Why many private firms continue to do this when they can so easily make up for the hours lost is a mystery and just shows plain unwillingness to grant workers better benefits even when it costs the company nothing.

The number of public holidays in Malaysia is about 18, not counting state holidays which may account for one or two more. But those who don’t work a five-day week work 26 days more in a year.


The Government should just mandate a five-day week for everyone like it is done in many other countries.


Next, guess who is opposing vehemently a current proposal to raise the retirement age to 60 and which may be legislated this year if all goes well. Yes, private sector employers.

The life expectancy over the last half century has increased by over 20 years to 75 but the retirement age still stays at 55.

Many countries already have a retirement age of 65 and some don’t even have a retirement age and here we are baulking because of employer opposition.

Why is the private sector behaving like that? It wants to get rid of staff and get new ones at lower pay or retain the old ones on yearly contracts and with reduced benefits, saving costs.

The broader interest will be served by increasing the retirement age so that the useful lives of all citizens can be extended, they are better able to take care of their needs in older age and their accumulated knowledge and expertise used.

If we look at the way employers treat foreign workers, it is appalling to say the least.

The construction industry, for instance, is almost entirely dependent on foreign workers. Often they are paid a daily rate and they get no pay when there is no work. Is that any way to treat a worker?

Imagine how much the wages for local labour is depressed because of the cheap availability of foreign labour, often illegal.

For a long time, even local plantation workers never got a monthly salary, only being paid when they went out to work. They were forced to take lower salaries when prices of rubber and palm oil dipped but had little benefit when prices rose. They remained abjectly poor despite the manyfold increase in commodity prices over the years.

If you ever wondered why our currency is weak – and therefore we pay high prices for all manner of products with imported content – look again at export manufacturers and how they lobby strongly to keep their costs down, including asking the Government to keep the currency at “competitive levels” and encourage cheap imported labour.

It seems like the rest of us have to keep on subsidising the exporters through a weak currency and lower wages so that they can make money.

The question is why can’t the employers raise productivity so that everyone can contribute and earn more and thereby do their bit towards becoming a high-income nation and making all our lives, instead of a few, better.

If management thinks 10 days of annual leave is too much for workers, ask how much top management gets – the norm is 30 days, but of course they will argue that they work all the time. Anyway, don’t some workers too?

Any which way you look at it, Malaysian employers are mollycoddled. They want wages to be low, the currency to be weak, employees to take less leave, imported cheap labour to be plentiful, the retirement age to be low and workers to work long hours.

But they do very little to be more productive – spend a bit more in terms of training and equipment to produce more with less and in less time.

Germany is moving to a four-and-a-half-day week, France has a seven-hour work day, Australians value their leisure as do many others. How come they are all so much more productive than Malaysia?

And, finally, the most ironic part. Many workers actually employ people – yes, maids.

And what do a good proportion of them think when it comes to their own servants. No leave! They will get into mischief if they get out of the house. And so one strata of society exploits the next and the next the ones below and it goes all the way down to the lowest economic strata.

No wonder there’s such a scramble to get to the top and do all the exploiting!

If only everybody thought of others as themselves and focused on giving decent wages for good work done and not making enormous profits at somebody else’s expense, we all can have a good life together.

Ever wonder why developed countries are developed and everyone who wants to work has a place under the sun and moral values – in its true sense – are much higher in these places?

> P. Gunasegaram enjoys his holiday as much as the next person and wishes there were more of them even if he knows there is a limit to it.

Employers to feel the brunt with workers taking long festive breaks

By P. ARUNA and ISABELLE LAI newsdesk@thestar.com.my  Jan 5, 2012

 PETALING JAYA: The year-end holiday season may be over worldwide but not in Malaysia where the festive mood continues as a second wave of public holidays looms.

Employers are bracing for a hit in productivity as huge numbers of workers are expected to take long breaks in January and February.

Malaysians enjoy over 50 national, school and state holidays a year and ranks in the top 10 countries with the most public holidays. This is apart from the minimum of 14 days of annual leave a worker is entitled to.

Worse for employers this year, various state and national holidays come on the heels of Chinese New Year, which falls on Jan 23.

These include Federal Territory Day (Feb 1), Prophet Muhammad's birthday (Feb 5) and Thaipusam (Feb 7).

Also, it is a common practice among Malaysian workers to take their annual leave, before and after a festival, to enjoy an even longer break.

Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers small and medium industries committee chairman Tan Sri Soong Siew Hoong said the many public holidays affect the ability to remain competitive in business and “make employers cry”.

“I think there are too many paid public holidays for the private sector. And yet various sectors still want to lobby for more holidays,” he said.

Soong also expressed his unhappiness that public holidays were brought forward to weekdays if they fell on weekends, deeming this unnecessary.

He suggested that religious holidays be declared a personal choice so employees could celebrate on their own while colleagues of other faiths work as usual.

Malaysian Employers Federation executive director Shamsuddin Bardan said productivity would be affected during the holiday period with working days in between.

He said companies would not be able to operate at optimum levels as many workers would be taking leave.

“The alternative is for them to declare a shutdown through the whole period as the overhead costs will be very high. If they can't stop work, then they have to absorb the impact,” he added.

Shamsuddin said the Special Task Force to Facilitate Business had suggested that MEF and the Malaysian Trades Union Congress come up with a formula for employers to “buy back” annual leave days, adding that discussions were ongoing.

Federation of Chinese Associations Malaysia economic research committee chairman Kerk Loong Sing said the large number of public holidays would “naturally result” in higher production costs.

“Of course, too many holidays are bad. It will affect productivity, especially for industries which cannot afford to stop production. Employers also need to pay higher wages during public holidays,” he said.

However, MTUC vice-president Mohd Roszali Majid strongly disagreed that the number of public holidays be trimmed down as “employees deserve their holidays”.

“It doesn't affect productivity because they can work on public holidays if they want to. Employers can also convert their unused annual leave to cash and increase their income,” he said.

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