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Sunday, July 17, 2011

Wake-up call for Malaysian politicians: Challenge of a new mindset!




Challenge of a new mindset

INSIGHT: By JOCELINE TAN

Feelings are still deeply divided over last weekend’s street protests but there is a growing realisation that there is a sophisticated civil society out there who can determine the outcome of the next general election.

A DIE-HARD admirer of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was asked how the big man felt about his famous daughter Datuk Paduka Marina and her grown-up daughter joining the Bersih march last weekend.

The Mahathir-admirer said the former Premier felt more embarrassed than upset.

Dr Mahathir’s views about public protests are well known. In fact, he had, over the last few months, expressed disapproval of the way sensitive issues like race relations and religion were openly debated and challenged, saying such things had not happened during his watch and implying that his successors have been unable to control the politics of the day.

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But to have his daughter and granddaughter marching with the Bersih group was an eye-opener altogether. In a way, it was a metaphor for how the world has changed around him since the years when he was still in the driver’s seat.

However, the political circle around him fumed at Marina. They think she has put her father and her deputy minister brother Datuk Mukhriz in an awkward situation. But those familiar with Marina say her support for Bersih had more to do with her NGO ties and what they stood for. Also, like many Malaysians, she wants to see a first world electoral system emerge in this country.



The problem was that Bersih was polemic from the word go and when emotions run high, there is little middle ground. It becomes a situation of you are with us or you are with them.

That has been the dilemma for many, including Deputy Higher Education Minister Datuk Saifuddin Abdullah who came under attack from pro-Umno Netizens for his views on the rally. Some of them even called for him to be sacked from the Government.

Among his “wrongs”: He had questioned the authority’s handling of the rally and was critical of the Friday sermons cautioning people from joining the demonstration. A day before the protests, he tweeted: “Saya tidak setuju perhimpunan Bersih tapi tak payahlah guna khutbah Jumaat.” (I don’t agree with the Bersih rally but there’s no need to use the Friday sermon.)

He clarified later that although the rally was illegal, there was no need to resort to religious grounds to stop it. More bashing followed that remark although he also won praise for being objective. People like Saifuddin are a minority in Umno, which saw the rally as a direct challenge to its hold on power.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak acknowledged the raw feelings in the party when he made one of the most fiery speeches of his career before a packed gathering of Umno leaders and members at the party headquarters the next day. He was speaking to an emotional audience who felt that the other side was pushing them against the wall; and you could see it in their response.

Khairy Jamaluddin received loud applause at the PWTC gathering. The Umno Youth chief had also defied the ban to rally and he has been taunted for the barely 200 “Patriots” he managed to gather. But he went out there, took the hits for his party and they acknowledged it.

Umno Youth had its share of casualties. The police did not care who Khairy’s father-in-law was; they arrested him after giving him and his group the pepper water and tear gas treatment.

Bukit Bintang Youth chief Tengku Azman Zainal Abidin was whacked on his upper back while Putrajaya Youth chief Datuk Zaki Zahid is nursing a black-and-blue left arm, no thanks to a FRU baton. A member from Besut suffered a broken ankle.

The mainstay of Umno is still seething. They regard the whole affair as a veiled attempt by Pakatan Rakyat to import Egypt’s Tahrir Square phenomenon to Kuala Lumpur and destabilise the government.

“How would they feel if we take to the streets when we disagree with policies or laws in Pakatan states? You want this culture, we can do the same. They have set a dangerous precedent,” said Tengku Azman.

Claiming credit

Pakatan leaders, who kept to the background in the run-up to the protests, are now emerging to claim credit while threatening more street protests.

The rally was also very much about political gamesmanship and there is no denying that Pakatan has regained the momentum they lost following the string of by-election defeats and the sex video scandal. Public perception is that the Government could have handled it with more finesse, however.

PAS leaders, in particular, are milking the afterglow for all it is worth. Deputy president Mohamad Sabu, who was injured in the knee, has been making the ceramah rounds in a wheelchair where he is welcomed like a war hero. Shah Alam MP Khalid Samad who received about half a dozen stitches to his scalp has worn his scar like a badge of honour.

Surprisingly, pictures of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in hospital with tubes running out of his nose elicited little sympathy and some thought his bodyguard, who was seen with blood dribbling down his cheek and chin, should be the one stretched out.

A key concern of PAS was its standing with the palace because the rally had gone on despite the advice from the King. The latest issue of Harakah went into overdrive to contain the matter, carrying the King’s picture on the front cover as well as the back page while pinning the blame of treachery squarely on Umno.

A point of curiosity was the DAP’s role, or rather the lack of it. Key DAP leaders kept a low profile before and after the showdown. Questions are being asked whether they were trying to downplay their political clout after their massive wins in Sarawak or if they were apprehensive about the sentiments of the Chinese middleground regarding Middle East-style uprisings. According to an insider, the party did not want to be seen as the provocateur, so they played safe.

Besides, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng had a foretaste of this in his own state several days before the Bersih show. DAP leaders probably know they would be giving their opponents an excuse to retaliate the same way in Penang if they had actively encouraged the Bersih rally.

Will there be more rallies to come?

Bersih chief Datuk S. Ambiga said quite firmly there would be no more Bersih rallies for now. Her NGO coalition worked hand in glove with Pakatan to organise the demonstrations but she apparently does not intend to let Pakatan politicians hijack the movement and turn it into a yellow bandwagon for them to roll into Putrajaya. It will be a test of whether she is really in charge or whether it is the Pakatan leaders who are running the show.

Pakatan politicians know a good thing when they see one. They have been tweeting and making press statements about “yellow Saturdays” and holding more gatherings.

“The key challenge for them is how to maintain the momentum, to distinguish between the NGO and Pakatan arms of Bersih and how to stick to the agenda of electoral reform.

“For Pakatan, it is about how to build a broader movement by bringing in groups with grievances on issues such as inflation and corruption.

“But, by and large, we are a functioning democracy, the election process still works, and the way forward is to find a way to mediate between the demands and politics of these groups,” said Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian.

The way the rally unfolded has hurt the image of Najib’s administration but it has not undone the good he has done, as some claimed.

Najib, as Ibrahim pointed out, has tried very hard to be seen as more than just another politician. He has put into place policies and measures which he believes will be beneficial for the future of the country. It is there for people to judge alongside the political fallout from Bersih.

Within Umno, there is a segment who understands the civil society value of the Bersih demands. They agree with the bigger goals of free and fair elections even while opposed to the way the organisers took it to the streets.

“We are not afraid of reform and progress. I have no problems with the call for greater media freedom. We opposed the rally not because we are against principles of fair elections, but because the rally became a political challenge,” said Umno Youth’s Zaki.

For Umno, especially, the rally was a wake-up call. The large number of young Malays on the streets was the very sort of people which Umno Youth should be attracting but instead they were out there with the other side.

The Malays came out in huge numbers because there is a lot at stake for them – the Prime Minister will be a Malay and as Muslims, they want control over the question of Islam in the country. Moreover, the Malays/Bumiputras will determine the politics of the future because by 2020, they will make up 70% of the population.

On Thursday evening, Umno’s Saifuddin gathered a group of like-minded people to share and discuss the events of the past weeks and how to go beyond what had happened. Saifuddin is what one might call the thinking person’s type of politician.

New perspective

The group is talking about engagement, about looking at issues in terms of grey rather than just black and white. This group sees the diversity of views out there and they understand how important it is to command the middle ground.

Zaki, on his part, has invited his peer group from Pakatan parties to sit down and debate electoral issues.

They realise that the most significant aspect of last Saturday’s protest was the participation of civil society and the number of people who declared that they were there not to support PAS or PKR or Anwar Ibrahim, but because they want a better electoral system.

“These are the people who will eventually vote for the candidate rather than the party. They go on issues, they can distinguish between party politics and real issues,” said one senior journalist.

If not for anything else, Saturday has shown that there is a very sophisticated and discerning civil society out there and they are not afraid to make their opinions known.

This group will be a major factor in determining the outcome of the next general election and political parties should do everything they can to engage them.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Bersih_PR - UMNO_BN Cyberbattle to own the ‘truth’




Cyberbattle to own the ‘truth’

ANALYSIS  By BARADAN KUPPUSAMY

The ‘truth’ is still out there in cyberspace where the Bersih 2.0 rally is concerned.

THE Bersih 2.0 rally might be over but the battle to own its truth is still being fought over social media which had become a fierce battleground.

People from both sides of the political divide have weighed in with their experiences of July 9 on Face­­book, Twitter, blogs and so forth.

Some of the things uploaded now include a video clip of a man who had supposedly died, a hospital that was blasted with water cannons and a PKR activist who died of a heart problem during the rally but his death was blamed on the police.

Discerning true from false: Many accounts of the Bersih 2.0 rally, both true and untrue, have been posted online for Netizens to read and judge for themselves.
 
The person who faked his death on video has been traced and identified as an Al-Arqam member from Selangor. He is said to have run off when the police sent him to hospital.

Then a supposedly “Chinese man” was seen holding a loud hailer for the man (said to fake his death) as he prayed. Eventually, the “Chinese man” had been exposed as a Selangor PKR man who is a Malay. A blogger posted his picture for viewers to judge for themselves.

Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, meanwhile, was seen grimacing in hospital after the rally but his detractors scoffed at the images.

It’s a war zone out there in cyberspace. The Pakatan Rakyat appears to be winning at times; at other times, the Barisan Nasional.



Pakatan had always enjoyed a well-oiled social media network. It was first seen in action during Anwar’s black eye incident and later in the first sodomy trial and subsequently the purported arsenic poisoning.

One of the prominent websites at that time was the Free Anwar website managed by Raja Petra Kama­ruddin. It did Anwar a great favour and is also credited with helping to free him in 2004.

Pakatan was always a step ahead of Barisan in exploiting the developments in social media.

During the years since the Free Anwar website, Anwar himself led in the fight to exploit social media for its powerful ability to connect disparate people.

Today, social media is working overtime for Pakatan as it seeks to manufacture consent for his political themes.

Tech-savvy youths were checking iPads and smartphones during the days leading to the Bersih 2.0 rally and on the day itself.

They sent out tweets, posted comments and images and wrote about their experiences at the rally.

The truth can sometimes be lost in the maze that is social media but some images do not lie, such as the incident which took place at Tung Shin Hospital.

There is overwhelming evidence that tear gas and water cannon were fired into the hospital area after rally participants ran helter skelter into the hospital area. Images and video clips of the incident were recorded and uploaded online by many people.

It is well known that some ministers lack social media skills or have not found time to watch videos online but still make statements that later put them in a spot.

Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms have thus become a contested arena with many pro-Barisan Nasional and pro-Pakatan Rakyat supporters arguing over their version of what the “truth” is.

For Anwar, the important thing is to keep up the political momentum achieved by Bersih 2.0. Their hope is that the next general election is held soon to capitalise on the political momentum created by the rally.

He needs the Bersih 2.0 rally to be talked about everywhere, besides calling on his friends in the Western media to write about it.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, on the other hand, has been spending time explaining things. While on a visit to London, he was interviewed on CNN where he took questions on the rally, on police brutality and on his economic transformation plans for the country.

Najib has to put a distance between himself and the effects of the rally on the people, especially the youths who are upwardly mobile.

The social media is Anwar’s strong suit. The same cannot be said about many government leaders.

But not everybody is connected and those who are connected deeply disagree on what really happened on July 9.

The silent majority is out there and when they speak, it will be a roar.

Friday, July 15, 2011

US QE3 sparks concerns !




Possible US QE3 sparks concerns

By Hu Yuanyuan and Chen Ji 

BEIJING - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it could ease monetary policy further if the United States failed to see solid growth, which analysts said may add to China's inflation and endanger its $3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves.

"The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might re-emerge, implying a need for additional policy support," Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. His remarks were generally interpreted as a signal of a possible QE3 (quantitative easing).

In late 2009, the Fed launched an unprecedented bond-buying drive to boost the economy and make credit more available, spending some $1.7 trillion on mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries before it ended in March 2010. It then initiated a second round of easing, that wrapped up in June, in which $600 billion of bonds were bought.

But the US economy remains weak, prompting the possible launch of a QE3. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday showed that the number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong economic track rose to 63 percent this month, up from 60 percent in June. The country's jobless rate rose to 9.2 percent in June from 9.1 percent in May.



"If the Fed continues to print more money (as Bernanke hinted), it will drag China into a protracted war to limit liquidity and tame inflation," Lu Zhengwei, chief economist with Industrial Bank Co Ltd, said.

China's consumer inflation already surged to a three-year high of 6.4 percent in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This was partly attributable to quantitative easing measures by the US, which drove global capital into the more lucrative developing markets, including China, analysts agreed.

Moreover, the potential injection of money in the US is likely to raise global commodity prices. Crude-oil futures finished higher on Wednesday boosted by Bernanke's comments. The rising prices may force emerging economies, such as China, Brazil and India, to pay more for imported commodities, further exacerbating their inflationary problems.

"It will be a very bad news for emerging countries," Lu said.

Those countries may have to continually tighten their monetary stance, such as by raising interest rates, further incurring capital inflows, Lu said.

Cao Fengqi, director of the Research Center for Finance and Securities at Peking University, told China Daily that a QE3 would lead to faster appreciation of the yuan against the dollar.

According to Cao, if the easing policy became a reality, the resulting flood of US dollars means a faster depreciation of the greenback, which threatens the security of China's foreign exchange stockpile as it will reduce the real value of the dollar-denominated reserves.

"The primary task for China is to control consumer prices and maintain steady and fast economic growth (to counter any external shocks)," Cao said.

The Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that it hoped the US government would take a responsible attitude to protect investor interests.

Bernanke's hint of a QE3 could also be a strategy to pressure lawmakers to agree on raising the US debt ceiling, analysts said.

US President Barack Obama and the Republicans are bogged down in negotiations to raise the borrowing limit before the Aug 2 deadline.

Bernanke may be "talking up the market" and goading Congress to reach a consensus on the ceiling, Chen Xingdong, chief economist with BNP Paribas Asia Ltd, said.

Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday put its AAA rating on US government bonds on watch for a possible downgrade, citing the "rising possibility that the statutory debt limit will not be raised on a timely basis", which would lead to a default on US Treasury debt obligations.

Meanwhile, Chinese rating agency Dagong Global Ratings Co Ltd on Thursday put US ratings on domestic and foreign currencies on a negative watch list because of the country's rising debt.

Dagong said the current political and economic situation had squeezed out room for tax increases, while it is difficult to curtail military and welfare spending.

In the worst-case scenario, the US public debt will continue to grow to 124 percent of the country's GDP in 2015, and the federal government will have to raise the debt limit by $5.5 trillion, Dagong said.

Dagong downgraded US ratings from AA to A+ on Nov 9, 2010 after the US government announced the second round of quantitative easing.

Wei Tian contributed to this story.

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