Stupid central banker tricks

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By Paul R. La Monica

The euro has rallied against the dollar despite worries about Greece as investors bet on ECB rate hikes. Click chart for more on currencies.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Greek debt crisis? What Greek debt crisis?

The European Central Bank is meeting this Thursday and is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.5%. That would be the second rate hike by the ECB this year.

Sure, the austerity vote in Greece is good news since it could mean the worst-case scenario fears about a euro meltdown may not be realized.

But this isn't the end to the difficulties in Greece. Doesn't it seem just a bit odd that the ECB is contemplating more tightening at a time when there are still legitimate worries about the problems spreading to Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain? Moody's downgraded Portugal's debt to junk status on Tuesday.

The sovereign debt woes could be disastrous news for banks in France and Germany -- the two big euro zone nations that actually have somewhat healthy economies.

But the ECB, unlike the Federal Reserve in the U.S., only has one mandate: inflation. (The Fed is charged with watching prices as well as employment.)

And even though commodity prices have come back from their peaks earlier this year, they are still somewhat alarmingly high. Crude oil, for example, has crept back above $95 a barrel. So that may be all that ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet needs to justify bumping rates up a bit.

Still, will the move backfire?

Another ECB rate hike would further widen the gap between interest rates in the euro zone and here in the United States. (They've been near zero since December 2008.) The general rule of thumb in the land of paper money is that the higher the interest rates are, the stronger the currency.

Europe cited as scariest risk to economy

But that's a problem from an inflation standpoint. With oil and many other commodities denominated in dollars, the weaker the greenback gets, the more likely it is for commodity prices to go higher.

"An ECB rate hike means a higher euro going forward," said Brian Gendreau, market strategist with Financial Network Investment Corp., a Segunda, Calif.-based advisory firm.

"It seems paradoxical that Europe, with its very serious problems, has a currency that's strong and rising but that's a reality. That means the trading bias is in favor of a lower dollar and higher oil prices," Gendreau added.

It makes you wonder if David Letterman needs to expand his stupid tricks franchise and create one specifically for central bankers.

Other currency experts wondered if the ECB should just leave well enough alone since crude prices have pulled back in the past few months after surging due to Arab Spring-inspired supply disruption fears.



"I don't think the ECB would be doing the right thing with a rate hike. Oil prices are high but inflation pressures have abated quite a bit," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research for foreign exchange brokerage GFT in Jersey City.

Lien said the ECB needs to pay more attention to slow growth in Europe -- even if it's not officially one of that central bank's particular mandates.

"Price stability is the top priority but the more important question is should the ECB be doing this during a fragile point of negotiations with Greece?" she said. "Raising rates makes financing more difficult for people in Europe."

What makes matters more vexing is the fact that it's not as if the ECB won't have other opportunities to raise rates soon if inflation does in fact pick up.

The ECB will meet again on August 4 and has another meeting scheduled for September 8. Wouldn't it be more judicious to wait for at least another month or two to see how the situation in Greece plays out before rushing to raise rates again?



"I am a little puzzled by why the ECB seems so intent on raising interest rates right now. It's not going to ease any of the problems in the peripheral euro countries," Gendreau said.

Still, some think that the ECB rate hike may be a non-event. That's because the euro has already rallied against the dollar this year despite all the negative headlines about Greece, Portugal, Ireland, etc.

"The speculation about a rate hike has been in the cards for a couple of months," said Ian Naismith, co-manager of The Currency Strategies Fund (FOREX), a Sarasota-Fla. Based mutual fund specializing in foreign exchange investments.

Naismith pointed out that just because the ECB is likely to raise rates on Thursday does not mean that this is the beginning of a long cycle of rate hikes. The key is going to be whether Trichet signals that he's still worried about inflation and that more rate increases are on the way.

"Nothing is etched in stone," Naismith said.

Let's hope so. The ECB does seem strangely hell bent on rate hikes even though Europe is still in the midst of major financial upheaval.

But the last thing Greece, other troubled European nations and the rest of the world for that matter, need is for the ECB to make matters worse with ill-timed policy decisions.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks. 

China's competitive advantage

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Research from Jack McCann of Lincoln Memorial University, in Tennessee, suggests that China could become the dominant economic power within a few years if it exploits the competitive advantages it is creating politically, culturally, legally and economically.

Writing in the current issue of the International Journal of Sustainable Strategic Management, Jack McCann suggests that China's business and political leaders have long worked to build strong relationships with developing countries. However, it is strengthening of its global political presence that is closely aligned with economic expansion, which could lead to a sustainable dominant position in the world.

The Chinese Communist Party has governed China for the past 55 years and remains secure in its position as the sole political party in China. Despite its seeming inability to respond with ease to changes in Chinese society, the Party has nevertheless witnessed an average annual growth of about 10% for nearly two decades and unique stability during the current world economic crises. Indeed, China's merchandise trade has been growing at about 14%, three times faster than world trade, making China the third largest economy as of 2008.



"On paper, globalization poses the long-term potential to raise living standards and reduce the costs of goods and services for people everywhere," says McCann. However, globalization does not mean equitability. China currently produces almost three-quarters of the world's today, nearly two-thirds of its bicycles, a third of its television sets and air conditioners, and half of the world's microwave ovens. "China's pool of cheap labor may dominate world labor markets for decades, giving it a monopoly on cheaply manufactured goods," McCann explains.

There is an intriguing undercurrent to China's development and trade practices that concerns those in the West. "Competitive strategies, currency manipulation, and piracy of intellectual property are causing concern in the global economy and creating protectionist reactions in many countries," adds McCann. It is interesting to note that as China utilizes its various competitive advantages, not least those ethical considerations, it has in recent years become the world's second-largest oil consumer after the US while the US trade deficit with China increases year after year into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Globalization has wrought new opportunities for many nations. China is no different than any other in attempting to make the most of this emerging world order.

More information: "The Chinese competitive advantage" in Int. J. Sustainable Strategic Management, 2011, 3, 1-12
Provided by Inderscience Publishers (news : web)
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Trends in US, Europe will affect the Malaysian Economy

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Economist: Trends in US, Europe will affect M’sia

By LIZ LEE lizlee@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia should keep an eye on political trends and unemployment rates in the United States and European countries as these factors will affect the local economy, says UBS Investment Bank managing director and global economist Paul Donovan.

Due to persistent long-term unemployment in the United States and Europe, governments in these countries would want to protect their local jobs and therefore limit international trade, he said at a roundtable session with the media yesterday.

As a result, Donovan said, politicians would try to run economies, which meant rising political risk in the global economy.

Donovan: I believe we will now see a period of relative stability.

 

Donovan said while politics had always influenced Asian economies, the United States and European governments had for the past two decades maintained a declining role in managing their economies.

“If we look back, the trend of reducing political risk will be reversed as politics is rising in the United States and Europe (now). What happens there will affect this region significantly.

“Malaysia, as a global open economy, will have to take note as decisions made in these foreign countries will have implications as to where the Malaysian economy is heading in the next few years,” he added.

Donovan said the Middle East remained potentially volatile but would not be the biggest political risk for this region.

“Through regulation, governments are playing a direct role in managing the economy. Certain countries will impose capital control and restriction on investments, which changes capital flow around the world.

“The trade protection that the United States and Europe has put in place means that Asia has to change the way it generates growth,” he said.



Donovan noted that exports would no longer be a reliable source for economic expansion. “Malaysia should look into (having a) domestic-focused economy with more domestic investments and consumption,” he said.

As for the world economy, Donovan said the forecast 3.9% growth had been slightly revised downward to 3.6% following the natural disasters in Japan recently.

“At the start of this year, growth momentum was quite good. First-quarter GDP numbers were better than expected in Malaysia but economists say there will be a levelling off of growth.

“I believe we will now see a period of relative stability,” he said, attributing that to continued fair growth in the United States and Europe.

He added that there would be limited slowdown in Malaysia in the second and third quarters.

“We will see a trend-like growth globally, which will continue to keep the Malaysian economy at a reasonable growth rate of 4.5% or 5% over the next two years,” Donovan added.

However, he said, this also meant that things did not get worse or better, reflecting the unchanging unemployment rates and spare capacity in countries that had not recovered well from the recession in 2008 and 2009.

The United States is facing its highest unemployment rate since 1983, with more than 40% of its citizens unemployed for more than six months.