Dollar doldrums: No end in sight

10 Yr Treasury vs USD Index: Economic Analysis By HiddenLevers Aug 1 Aug 16 Sep 1 Sep 16 Oct 1 Oct 16 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 76 78 80 82 84 5d | 1m | 3m | 6m | YTD | 1y | 5y | 10y | All Economic Analysis By HiddenLevers

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- All hail the puny dollar?

The greenback slipped once again Monday morning, falling to a new 15-year low against the yen. The dollar also fell against the euro and pound.

The renewed dollar sell-off comes after global financial ministers pledged to avoid currency wars at the conclusion of the G-20 meeting in South Korea Saturday.

Accusations of currency manipulation have roiled financial markets, with U.S. officials expressing frustration about how artificially low they believe the Chinese yuan is when compared to the dollar.

But global traders are continuing to sell the dollar. And that's because, somewhat ironically, many investors feel that the U.S. may be doing some manipulation of its own -- intentional or not.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to unveil a new round of asset purchases at its next policy meeting, a two-day session that wraps up on November 3.

This so-called practice of quantitative easing is generally viewed as bad for the dollar because the Fed would be essentially printing money in order to pay for the long-term bonds it plans to buy.

Michael Pento, senior economist with Euro Pacific Capital in Westport, Conn., said that more quantitative easing is troubling because it may discourage foreign investors from buying the dollar, which is something they did in droves during the height of the financial crisis of 2008.

At that time, the dollar was still viewed as a safe bet and its status as the world's reserve currency was not in doubt. Pento worries that this may not be true for much longer.

"The dollar is being destroyed on a daily basis," he said. "Another massive round of easing would put everyone on notice that if you are seeking to hide in our dollar you will be severely punished."

0:00 /2:53Weak dollar is a double-edged sword

The fear is that if the dollar continues to fall, foreign creditors will eventually get tired of the weak dollar and sell their Treasuries. That would push long-term yields much higher and could help bring about inflation.

So far though, as the chart at the top of this column shows, long-term yields have been edging lower even as the dollar continues to fall.

Along those lines, not everyone is sweating the weak dollar. Alex Bellefleur, financial economist with Brockhouse Cooper, a brokerage firm in Montreal, said it's worth noting that the stock market has been rallying as the dollar has weakened.

"The U.S. dollar has been the laggard in international currencies. But that could help in terms of boosting exports and earnings for large companies," Bellefleur said. "We don't think this is something that's negative in the near-term."

The problem is that at some point though, the cons to the weak dollar will outweigh the pros.

Pento said that if the widely-watched U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of key currencies, falls below 70, that could jeopardize the dollar's standing around the world. That index is currently around 77.

But Bellefleur doesn't think that the dollar will slide that much more. He said that for the dollar to truly lose its reserve status, something has to replace it. And he doesn't believe that will happen anytime soon.

"There are still no alternatives to the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The euro used to be viewed as possibly being one but people have had second thoughts about that," he said.

Keep track of the dollar and other currencies

Dean Popplewell, chief currency strategist for Oanda, a Toronto-based foreign exchange broker, said investors should not forget gold. He noted that weakness in the dollar has coincided with the record run in the yellow metal.

So while investors may not think the euro can replace the dollar, gold -- which risk-averse investors love because of its tangible nature -- may be another story.

"At the moment, gold is trading as if it's the reserve currency. People want commodities over the dollar," Popplewell said.

Popplewell added that as long as the Fed has an easy money policy in place, the weak dollar trend is likely to continue. He predicts that the euro, currently trading around $1.40, could climb as high as $1.46 before the year is out.

"There will come a time when the dollar stops depreciating. But right now everyone has the same bet. It's a one-way, lemming trade," he said. "There is no money to be made on betting on the dollar at this point."

- The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney.com, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.   

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Blood pressure checks performed by barbers improve hypertension control in African-American men

Neighborhood barbers, by conducting a monitoring, education and physician-referral program, can help their African-American customers better control high blood pressure problems that pose special health risks for them, a new study from the Cedars-Sinai Heart Institute shows.
 

The study -- the first to subject increasingly popular barbershop-based health programs to a scientific scrutiny with randomized, controlled testing -- demonstrates the haircutters' heart health efforts work well enough that they could save hundreds of lives annually, according to results to be published online today on the Archives of Internal Medicine website at http://archinte.ama-assn.org/ and in the peer-reviewed medical journal's Feb. 28, 2011, print issue.

In the research -- led by Ronald G. Victor, MD, a hypertension expert and associate director of the Cedars-Sinai Heart Institute -- barbers for 10 months offered blood pressure checks during men's haircuts and promoted physician follow-up with personalized health education for customers with high blood pressure. This enhanced screening program markedly improved blood pressure levels among the barbershops' patrons. Although blood pressure levels also fell in a comparison group whose members received only educational brochures about high blood pressure, the improvement was greater in the barber-assisted group.

Uncontrolled hypertension is one of the most prevalent causes of premature disability and death among African-Americans. African-American men have the highest death rate from hypertension of any race, ethnic and gender group in the United States – three times higher than white men.

"What we learned from this trial is that the benefits of intensive blood pressure screening are enhanced when barbers are empowered to become healthcare extenders to help combat this epidemic of the silent killer in their community"," said Victor, the Burns and Allen Chair in Cardiology Research. "Barbers, whose historical predecessors were barber-surgeons, are a unique work force of potential community health advocates because of their loyal clientele."

Since the 1980s, African-American-owned barbershops and hair salons have hosted screening programs for medical conditions that disproportionately affect African-Americans. Victor's study concludes that if hypertension intervention programs were put in place in the estimated 18,000 African-American barbershops in the U.S., it would result in the first year in about 800 fewer heart attacks, 550 fewer strokes and 900 fewer deaths.

Seventeen African-American-owned barbershops in Dallas and approximately 1,300 male patrons with confirmed hypertension participated in this study, which ran from March, 2006, to December, 2008, when Victor was professor of medicine at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas.

All African-American men patronizing the participating shops were offered baseline blood pressure screenings for hypertension. The shops then were assigned randomly to the intervention or comparison group.

Barbers at the nine shops in the intervention group were trained to measure blood pressure properly and they offered free checks with every cut. If a customer's reading was high, the barber encouraged him to see his doctor, and, if he did not, the barber called the study's nursing staff to arrange a physician visit. The customer, in turn, got a free haircut if he returned to the shop with a doctor-signed referral card.

In the eight shops in the comparison group, customers received a blood pressure check at the study's outset, and then were offered standard educational pamphlets about hypertension.

At the study's conclusion, 20 percent more hypertensive patrons in the intervention group had their blood pressure controlled with medication compared to 10 percent in the control group.

"We need further exploration to make this kind of program scalable and sustainable," said Victor, who is launching a new study with African-American barbershops in Southern California. "If this kind of program could be applied to large numbers of African-American men, that would be an enormous asset in preventing heart attacks, strokes, kidney failure and other serious complications of hypertension,"

More information: Arch Intern Med. Published online October 25, 2010. doi:10.1001/archinternmed.2010.390
Provided by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center

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MPs Giving a Dressing Down to Teresa!

Teresa stands by her blouse

By LEE YUK PENG
yukpeng@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Seputeh MP Teresa Kok stood up to accusations that her long-sleeved blouse was “too revealing” for Parliament, saying she saw nothing wrong with her choice of outfit on Thursday.

The MP from DAP, who wore the blouse made of sheer material and a dress, was criticised during question time by Datuk Dr Marcus Mojigoh (BN–Putatan) who complained that her outfit was revealing (menjolok mata) and improper.

“It was long-sleeved and not entirely transparent. I see nothing wrong with the blouse. I will continue to wear it in future,’’ said Kok yesterday.

Dress issue: Kok showing the outfit she wore to Parliament on Thursday.

 

Kok, who was attacked 10 years ago in another episode involving her outfit, said the complaint was nonsense.

“I think Putatan (Dr Marcus) was seeking attention on TV since the first 30 minutes of question time is on live telecast,’’ she added.

Dr Marcus, citing Standing Orders, stood up to point out to Speaker Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia that Kok’s outfit was revealing and inappropriate.

Pandikar Amin, however, defused the situation, saying he was not drawn to Kok’s clothes.

When contacted, Dr Marcus argued that Kok should be wearing formal attire like her male counterparts.

“I stood to remind her that she was not in proper parliamentarian attire. One must be serious in Parliament and not main-main (fool around). She wore a fancy dress as if she was taking part in a fashion show. Parliament is not the place for her to show how nice her dresses are,” he said.

Standing Order 41(f) states that a woman should either be wearing national attire, sarong or long-sleeved blouse with knee-length skirt, ceremonial dress or any attire permitted by the Chair in the Dewan Rakyat.

Monday October 25, 2010

Giving MPs a dressing down must be done in private

I WAS bemused and at the same time irked by the news report in which Seputeh MP Teresa Kok (pic) was accused by Datuk Dr Marcus Mojigoh (BN-Putatan) of wearing a blouse that was “too revealing” for Parliament – and of all times, during Question Time.

Question Time in Parliament is an important session for MPs to discuss issues of national importance, not for trivial matters as an MP’s outfit.

Should it be true that any MP, regardless of whatever political party he or she belong to, has violated the dress code of Parliament, then he or she should be told in private by the Chair or Parliament officer in charge of protocol.

It is very unseemly for a person to criticise in public another person’s mode of dressing. In this case, more so because we are talking about national leaders who should know how to behave.

As a woman leader, Kok has it twice as hard as she is a minority in a very male-dominated field. It is difficult to retain your feminity when you are working with men.

If she were to dress a bit too feminine, she would be accused of “taking part in a fashion show”. And, if she were to dress more formally, she would be accused of trying too hard to be “one of the guys”.

As such, Marcus should have been more gracious when he found that her attire “menjolok mata” and behaved in a gentlemanly manner by going through the proper channels to advise her instead of shaming her in public, on national television no less.

Elected representatives should be more focused on doing their jobs.

JULIANA P,
Kuala Lumpur.