The year that will be
A QUESTION OF BUSINESS
By P. GUNASEGARAM
WHILE a lot of us anticipate the New Year with hope, thinking in terms of new, fresh starts and such, there is often much trepidation too – the fear of what 2010 will have in store for us.
This week we have a special pullout with the theme “What lies ahead”. No, we have not quite turned forecasters as such, but we thought it would be useful for readers to have some idea as to what to expect this year and the key issues which are likely to crop up.
I hope you have some fun reading those pieces by our columnists and writers as well as the exclusive articles we have sourced from the world’s leading commentators. This should whet your appetite for information throughout the year, which no doubt you will process to find your way through the year.
Some things seem to be quite obvious at first look. Despite all that talk about a double-dip recession, growth is almost certainly likely to be better this year than last year’s dismal showing.
But that’s probably more than reflected in share prices, and if you think the share market will achieve new peaks, I don’t share your opinion. One of our writers (see the centre pages in the pullout) actually thinks we will reach new heights on the stock market but I prefer to be cautious.
The world will avoid a recession this year for sure, but it is what happens after that which is of greater concern. Further out, in 2011 and 2012, there are likely to be serious concerns about inflation and a readjustment process required to bring some semblance of order and regulation to markets.
With all that money pumped into the system, there is likely to be some inflationary threats sooner or later that will have to be tackled by restricting the supply of money into economies, especially the US economy. What that would do to nascent growth will be a matter of some conjecture. One can only make educated guesses.
For us in Malaysia, unless we can find quickly some sources of good growth, put the resources in to tap them quickly and make moves to sort out a myriad of long-term problems, including corruption and education, we will be pretty much stuck in the so-called middle-income trap.
If we stagnate there for too long while others make huge strides towards increasing their economic growth, which simultaneously increases incomes too, we may well slide downwards in our middle-income rankings.
Much depends on two things that we have embarked on and how successful they will be. They are the government transformation plan (GTP) to improve substantially the way we do things and a New Economic Model (NEM) to expand the economy more rapidly.
Key elements of the GTP have already been unveiled and later this month we should see the book which will reveal the plan in far greater detail. This plan will drive a change in the way we do things and bring results. If we achieve too little here, we are in deep trouble.
The NEM is expected to be released next month and a lot of us are waiting with bated breath to see what is on the cards that will provide a quantum leap for our economy and propel it into a high-income orbit.
Plans are one thing, execution is another. Which is why we need the GTP even if we have the NEM. The government needs to transform and quickly if it is to implement plans. Otherwise, we are all sunk.
In more ways than one, 2010 is a year of reckoning not just for the world but Malaysia as well.
Managing editor P Gunasegaram takes this opportunity to wish readers a very happy and prosperous New Year.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Friday, January 1, 2010
ASEAN chief warns FTA gov'ts against protectionism
ASEAN chief warns FTA gov'ts against protectionism
www.chinaview.cn 2010-01-01 12:13:54
By Cundoko Aprilianto
JAKARTA, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- Governments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should resist temptation of protectionist measures by imposing non tariff barriers as the free trade area (FTA) between the region and China takes effect on Friday, the head of the association told Xinhua in an exclusive interview recently.
"Avoid that, in every forum that I have attended on behalf of ASEAN, we talked about the problem of protectionism, protective measures and it was all agreed that it's not going to be good for economic recovery, not good for economic health of any country of any region. Therefore every government will have to resist temptation of protectionist measures," Secretary General of ASEAN Surin Pitsuwan said.
Surin said that indeed the implementation would be a negative impact for people on some industrial and business sectors.
"But over all, protective measures are not going to help in the long run because they are going to do damage than help," he said.
According to Surin, the implementation of the FTA will be gradual so that livelihood and jobs would not be affected.
"We just have to make adjustment. We cannot just complain and not moving, not accommodating, not adjusting. That's not the way of future. The way of future is to be competitive, to be prepared, to open up and to benefit from the open space and open market out there," he said.
Surin said that since the comprehensive economic cooperation agreement was signed in 2002, the economy and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN has improved tremendously.
"In terms of trade alone, it was from about 60 billion U.S. dollars to 192 billion dollars in 2008. That's in five years. And the growth rate is almost 30 percent, which makes China a very quick and fast trading partner with ASEAN, up to number three now and I'm sure it will take over Japan and the European Union soon," he said.
Surin said that aside of goods and services, there would be investment liberalization between both sides.
"So, we hope that there will be more direct foreign investment from China to ASEAN. Together, we have attracted a great deal of investment already from around the world," he said.
Surin said that with a balanced growth, both sides would like to have an inclusive and equitable growth.
"People of China and ASEAN in general will benefit from this growth, rather than the fruit of the growth is being capped among small group of people," he said.
He also said that a closer economic cooperation, bilateral ties between both sides will increase.
"Middle class of China is expanding, which will be good for ASEAN products. Middle class of ASEAN is growing, expanding, which will be good for Chinese export and Chinese services," he said.
He said that East Asia is being expected to be a foremost locomotive for world economic recovery.
"With the coordination, we will make sure that our region will increase its influence around the world, will expand its profile and heighten its contribution to the global economic recovery," he said, adding that the center of growth will be very much anchored in East Asia.
The region is emerging very quick out of the crisis while China's growth in the midst of the crisis have been impressive of more than 8 percent and in 2010, it is expected to be almost 9 percent, said the secretary general.
"Countries of South East Asia are also emerging even though not at the same rate, but 3.4-3.5 percent. That's also very impressive in the midst of global slowdown," he said.
Surin also said that the relationship between China and ASEAN has been comprehensive, not only on economy, politics and security but also on people's health, climate, environment, culture, sport, drugs and other non traditional security issues.
www.chinaview.cn 2010-01-01 12:13:54
By Cundoko Aprilianto
JAKARTA, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- Governments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should resist temptation of protectionist measures by imposing non tariff barriers as the free trade area (FTA) between the region and China takes effect on Friday, the head of the association told Xinhua in an exclusive interview recently.
"Avoid that, in every forum that I have attended on behalf of ASEAN, we talked about the problem of protectionism, protective measures and it was all agreed that it's not going to be good for economic recovery, not good for economic health of any country of any region. Therefore every government will have to resist temptation of protectionist measures," Secretary General of ASEAN Surin Pitsuwan said.
Surin said that indeed the implementation would be a negative impact for people on some industrial and business sectors.
"But over all, protective measures are not going to help in the long run because they are going to do damage than help," he said.
According to Surin, the implementation of the FTA will be gradual so that livelihood and jobs would not be affected.
"We just have to make adjustment. We cannot just complain and not moving, not accommodating, not adjusting. That's not the way of future. The way of future is to be competitive, to be prepared, to open up and to benefit from the open space and open market out there," he said.
Surin said that since the comprehensive economic cooperation agreement was signed in 2002, the economy and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN has improved tremendously.
"In terms of trade alone, it was from about 60 billion U.S. dollars to 192 billion dollars in 2008. That's in five years. And the growth rate is almost 30 percent, which makes China a very quick and fast trading partner with ASEAN, up to number three now and I'm sure it will take over Japan and the European Union soon," he said.
Surin said that aside of goods and services, there would be investment liberalization between both sides.
"So, we hope that there will be more direct foreign investment from China to ASEAN. Together, we have attracted a great deal of investment already from around the world," he said.
Surin said that with a balanced growth, both sides would like to have an inclusive and equitable growth.
"People of China and ASEAN in general will benefit from this growth, rather than the fruit of the growth is being capped among small group of people," he said.
He also said that a closer economic cooperation, bilateral ties between both sides will increase.
"Middle class of China is expanding, which will be good for ASEAN products. Middle class of ASEAN is growing, expanding, which will be good for Chinese export and Chinese services," he said.
He said that East Asia is being expected to be a foremost locomotive for world economic recovery.
"With the coordination, we will make sure that our region will increase its influence around the world, will expand its profile and heighten its contribution to the global economic recovery," he said, adding that the center of growth will be very much anchored in East Asia.
The region is emerging very quick out of the crisis while China's growth in the midst of the crisis have been impressive of more than 8 percent and in 2010, it is expected to be almost 9 percent, said the secretary general.
"Countries of South East Asia are also emerging even though not at the same rate, but 3.4-3.5 percent. That's also very impressive in the midst of global slowdown," he said.
Surin also said that the relationship between China and ASEAN has been comprehensive, not only on economy, politics and security but also on people's health, climate, environment, culture, sport, drugs and other non traditional security issues.
For Depressed Workers, Stress on Job Lowers Productivity
For Depressed Workers, Stress on Job Lowers Productivity
Released: 12/15/2009 4:20 PM EST
Embargo expired: 12/31/2009 12:00 AM EST
Source: Health Behavior News Service http://newscri.be/link/978053
Newswise — A new study shines a light on depression in the workplace, suggesting that psychological stress at the office — or wherever people earn their paychecks — can make it more difficult for depressed workers to perform their jobs and be productive.
“There is a large economic cost and a human cost,” said study lead author Debra Lerner, Ph.D., director, Program on Health, Work and Productivity, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies at Tufts Medical Center.
“We need to develop and test programs that directly try to address the employment of people with depression.”
The researchers screened 14,268 adult employees and ultimately compared 286 depressed workers to 193 who were not depressed. They recruited participants between 2001 and 2003 from doctors’ offices.
The study findings appear in the January/February issue of the American Journal of Health Promotion.
In many cases, the depressed employees had problems at work, Lerner said. “They’re often very fatigued and have motivational issues. They also may have difficulty handling the pacing of work, managing a routine, performing physical job tasks and managing their usual workload.”
The findings suggest that there is a link between productivity and an employee’s ability to control his or her work. “The workplace does play an important part,” Lerner said.
Ronald Kessler, a professor in the Department of Health Care Policy at Harvard Medical School, said the study findings “are consistent with a growing body of evidence that depression has important adverse effects on work performance, both absenteeism and on-the-job performance.”
Depression has a greater effect on attendance and productivity than the “vast majority” of other health conditions with the exception of musculoskeletal problems and insomnia, he said.
“This evidence has led to the development of several workplace depression screening and treatment programs,” he added. “Evaluations are beginning to show that these programs can be cost-effective when implemented carefully in reducing the indirect workplace costs of depression.”
What to do? When it comes to depressed workers, “we are going to need more ways to help those who want to continue working to be able to do so and sustain their productivity,” Lerner said.
American Journal of Health Promotion: Call (248) 682-0707 or visit www.healthpromotionjournal.com.
Lerner D, et al. Work performance of employees with depression: the impact of work stressors. Am J Health Promotion 24(3), 2010.
Released: 12/15/2009 4:20 PM EST
Embargo expired: 12/31/2009 12:00 AM EST
Source: Health Behavior News Service http://newscri.be/link/978053
Newswise — A new study shines a light on depression in the workplace, suggesting that psychological stress at the office — or wherever people earn their paychecks — can make it more difficult for depressed workers to perform their jobs and be productive.
“There is a large economic cost and a human cost,” said study lead author Debra Lerner, Ph.D., director, Program on Health, Work and Productivity, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies at Tufts Medical Center.
“We need to develop and test programs that directly try to address the employment of people with depression.”
The researchers screened 14,268 adult employees and ultimately compared 286 depressed workers to 193 who were not depressed. They recruited participants between 2001 and 2003 from doctors’ offices.
The study findings appear in the January/February issue of the American Journal of Health Promotion.
In many cases, the depressed employees had problems at work, Lerner said. “They’re often very fatigued and have motivational issues. They also may have difficulty handling the pacing of work, managing a routine, performing physical job tasks and managing their usual workload.”
The findings suggest that there is a link between productivity and an employee’s ability to control his or her work. “The workplace does play an important part,” Lerner said.
Ronald Kessler, a professor in the Department of Health Care Policy at Harvard Medical School, said the study findings “are consistent with a growing body of evidence that depression has important adverse effects on work performance, both absenteeism and on-the-job performance.”
Depression has a greater effect on attendance and productivity than the “vast majority” of other health conditions with the exception of musculoskeletal problems and insomnia, he said.
“This evidence has led to the development of several workplace depression screening and treatment programs,” he added. “Evaluations are beginning to show that these programs can be cost-effective when implemented carefully in reducing the indirect workplace costs of depression.”
What to do? When it comes to depressed workers, “we are going to need more ways to help those who want to continue working to be able to do so and sustain their productivity,” Lerner said.
American Journal of Health Promotion: Call (248) 682-0707 or visit www.healthpromotionjournal.com.
Lerner D, et al. Work performance of employees with depression: the impact of work stressors. Am J Health Promotion 24(3), 2010.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)