South Koreans protest US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile deployment

https://youtu.be/knkmDTsGTYA

• South Koreans protest US missile deployment
  People from Seongju county hold the national flags of South Korea and banners to protest against the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), during a rally in Seoul, capital of South Korea, on July 21, 2016. More than 2,000 people from Seongju county, where one THAAD battery will be deployed, gathered at a square in Seoul for a rally on Thursday, to protest against the deployment of THAAD. (Xinhua/Yao Qilin)

  South Koreans protest US missile deployment

• South Koreans protest US missile deployment. Thousands of South Koreans from Seongju county gathered in Seoul to protest against the government’s decision to deploy a U.S.-built THAAD missile defense unit in their home town. People from Seongju county hold the national flags of South Korea and banners...

"Stop the deployment! NO THAAD! NO THAAD! NO THAAD!" Protesters said.

"The way that the government made the decision completely on their own, without talking to residents first, is completely wrong. We are here to express the people's anger living in Seongju," Protest organiser Seok Hyeon-Cheol said.

"The missile deployment site is right in the middle of a city that has around 20,000 people. I can see it when I open the door of my house, the door of my house! And I can see it from my living room. That is why we strongly oppose the THAAD deployment. We oppose it for our children, and their children -- for the future of our county, for our health, and our right to live," Protester form Seongju County Kim An-Su said.

The protest follows a raucous standoff last week between residents and the country's prime minister, Hwang Kyo-ahn, who was pelted with eggs and plastic bottles and trapped inside a bus for several hours when he visited the county to explain his decision to deploy the missile system there.

South Korea's President Park Geun Hye has called for people to support the government's plans. She said the move was "inevitable" because of a growing threat from the DPRK. South Korea's defense ministry says the country's THAAD missile system will become operational before the end of 2017.

A senior official of Seongju county (2nd L, front) attends a rally to protest against the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in Seoul, capital of South Korea, on July 21, 2016. More than 2,000 people from Seongju county, where one THAAD battery will be deployed, gathered at a square in Seoul for a rally on Thursday, to protest against the deployment of THAAD. (Xinhua/Yao Qilin)

People from Seongju county hold the national flags of South Korea and banners to protest against the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), during a rally in Seoul, capital of South Korea, on July 21, 2016.

People from Seongju county hold the national flags of South Korea and banners to protest against the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), during a rally in Seoul, capital of South Korea, on July 21, 2016. (Xinhua/Yao Qilin)

People from Seongju county hold banners to protest against the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), during a rally in Seoul, capital of South Korea, on July 21, 2016. More than 2,000 people from Seongju county, where one THAAD battery will be deployed, gathered at a square in Seoul for a rally on Thursday, to protest against the deployment of THAAD. (Xinhua/Yao Qilin)

HAAD poses real threat to security of China

https://youtu.be/rhlxr6BRv4E

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test, in this undated handout photo provided by the US Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency. [Photo/Agencies]

What has historically been ours is ours. Even if others say it is not. That is why, annoying as it is, the Philippines-initiated South China Sea arbitration is actually not worth the limelight it is being given.

It is time for Beijing to get down to real, serious business. It has bigger issues to attend to, the most imperative of which is the anti-missile system being deployed on its doorsteps. Because, while it was coping with the worthless arbitral award from The Hague, Washington and Seoul finalized their plan for the deployment of the US' Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system in the Republic of Korea.

The arbitral ruling, which is null and non-executable, will have little effect on China's interests and security in the South China Sea. But not THAAD, which is a clear, present, substantive threat to China's security interests.

The installment of the US system in the ROK should be of far greater concern to Beijing, and warrants a far stronger reaction. Or should we say retaliation? The ROK has legitimate security concerns, especially with Pyongyang constantly threatening nuclear bombing. With that in mind, Beijing has been adamant about de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and worked closely with Seoul and Washington in implementing and upgrading United Nations sanctions, and appealed tirelessly for restarting the Six-Party Talks.

But Seoul has brushed aside Beijing's security interests while pursuing those of its own.

Washington and Seoul did claim that THAAD would be focused "solely" on nuclear/missile threats from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and would not be directed toward any third-party nation. But THAAD far exceeds such a need. Besides the far more credible threat from Pyongyang's artillery, short-range and lower-altitude missiles is simply beyond the system's reach.

While it will deliver a limited security guarantee to the ROK, THAAD's X-band radar will substantially compromise the security interests of China and Russia, no matter how the United States shrouds its purpose.

Yet having made such a beggar-thy-neighbor choice, Seoul has in effect turned its back on China. By hosting THAAD, it has presented itself as Washington's cat's-paw in the latter's strategic containment of China. All rhetoric about friendship is meaningless lip service with the deployment of THAAD.

Beijing must review and readjust its Korean Peninsula strategies in accordance with the latest threat from the peninsula, including its ROK policies.

That does not mean forsaking its commitment to de-nuclearization, or UN resolutions. But Beijing must concentrate more on safeguarding its own interests, both immediate and long-term.

Source: China Daily Updated: 2016-07-15

China can counter THAAD deployment

https://youtu.be/QTVgIJT1DaY

The US and South Korea on Friday announced their decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system on the Korean Peninsula.

Apart from monitoring missiles from North Korea, THAAD could expand South Korea's surveillance range to China and Russia and pose serious threat to the two countries.

Though South Korea claims it can reduce the surveillance range, the country cannot make the call as the system will be controlled by US forces in South Korea, and such cheap promises mean nothing in international politics.

We recommend China to take the following countermeasures.

China should cut off economic ties with companies involved with the system and ban their products from entering the Chinese market.

It could also implement sanctions on politicians who advocated the deployment, ban their entry into China as well as their family business. In addition, the Chinese military could come up with a solution that minimizes the threat posed by the system, such as technical disturbances and targeting missiles toward the THAAD system.

Meanwhile, China should also re-evaluate the long-term impact in Northeast Asia of the sanctions on North Korea, concerning the link between the sanctions and the imbalance after the THAAD system is deployed.

China can also consider the possibility of joint actions with Russia with countermeasures.

The deployment of THAAD will surely have a long-term and significant influence. South Korea will be further tied by its alliance with the US and lose more independence in national strategy.

North Korea's nuclear issue has further complicated the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but the country's possession of nuclear weapons also results from outside factors.

The biggest problem of the peninsula's messy situation lies in US' Cold-War strategy in Northeast Asia, and its mind-set of balancing China in the region. Neither Pyongyang nor Seoul could make their own decisions independently, as the region's stability and development are highly related to China and the US.

The whole picture of the situation on the Korean Peninsula could not been seen merely from the view of Pyongyang and Seoul. China's relationship with North Korea has already been affected, and ties with South Korea are unlikely to remain untouched.

China is experiencing the pains of growing up. We have to accept the status quo of "being caught in the middle."

China should neither be too harsh on itself, nor be self-indulgent. Being true to itself, China will fear no challenges

Source: Global Times Published: 2016-7-9

North Korea: launched a long-range rocket, cannot repeat China’s nuclear weapons path

North Korea launched a long-range rocket on Sunday morning. Pyongyang authorities said they had successfully launched the Kwangmyongsong-4 earth observation satellite, while the US, South Korea and Japan considered the launch to be a long-range missile test.

Pyongyang has made progress in long-range rocket and missile technology, but it is far from mastering mature long-range missile system and building a strategic deterrence. North Korea hopes it can effectively threaten the US homeland, but it views the matter too simply. Washington regards Pyongyang’s rocket launch as “severe provocation.” The majority of the international community doesn’t believe that in the foreseeable future, Pyongyang can miniaturize warheads and have the long-range nuclear strike ability to coerce Asia-Pacific countries and the US.

Long-range missile technology is similar to rocket technology, but there are differences. The deterrence of long-range missiles using liquid propellant is limited due to their restrained mobility and slow response times. According to analysis from the US and South Korean side, Pyongyang's liquid propellant is backward and unreliable. North Korea has no successful record in long-range missile launch. As long as the Kwangmyongsong-4 enters the target orbit, it can be considered successful. But after all, the launch of a rocket and a missile is different.

Long-range missiles need a huge supportive system, for instance, the ability to measure flight attitude, orbit accuracy and landing location, but Pyongyang doesn’t have any of this. Washington and Seoul believe that North Korea has a rather limited missile testing ability. With the missile and rocket launched by the North landing in the ocean with little possibility of it being retrieved, it is extremely difficult for Pyongyang to collect the test data. Its industry is also not able to manufacture all the materials necessary for developing long-range missile and nuclear bomb.

Some believe Pyongyang's research into nuclear weapons and long-range missiles is similar to China's atomic and hydrogen bomb development in the 1960s. Since China succeeded, so will North Korea.

This is a serious misreading. China faced a different environment than North Korea today in developing nuclear weapons. It was before the Non-Proliferation Treaty was adopted in 1968. Plus, China has a vast territory, and has nuclear test sites in the desert, while North Korea’s limited space makes this impossible.

China’s strategic deterrent power of nuclear bomb and missile, limited at the beginning, were enhanced as science and technology improved in the country. It has become even more credible with the mobility of land-based ICBMs and the upgrading of sea-based missile launching system.

Pyongyang is at the stage of developing nuclear equipment and long-range rockets, which however has developed far from the reality of the country's technology and economic development. So far, it is hard to tell whether it brings more strategic security or strategic harm to Pyongyang.

How far can Pyongyang’s nuclear bomb and missile develop? It is not up to the political determination of Pyongyang, since it involves complicated geopolitical forces which North Korea can hardly harness. Pyongyang must think carefully how to extricate itself from the increasingly grave situation. - Global Times

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Discussion of THAAD deployment is shortsighted move of Seoul and Washington

However, China’s determination to safeguard its national security should be clearly shown, so that the other stakeholders will have to think carefully before they make any decision that might challenge China’s position.

Beijing won’t allow war on Peninsula

China will “by no means allow war on the Korean Peninsula” a foreign ministry spokesperson said Wednesday, stressing Beijing was deeply concerned over Pyongyang’s announced plan to launch a satellite later this month, only weeks after it tested a nuclear bomb in defiance of international sanction

U.S. Ambassador Mark Lippert attacked by South Korean

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — The U.S. ambassador to South Korea struggled with pain as he recovered Friday from a knife attack, while police searched the offices of the anti-U.S. activist who they say slashed the envoy while screaming demands for Korean reunification.

The attack Thursday on Mark Lippert, which prompted rival North Korea to gloat about "knife slashes of justice," left deep gashes and damaged tendons and nerves. It also raised questions about security in a city normally seen as ultra-safe, despite regular threats of war from Pyongyang.

While an extreme example, the attack is the latest act of political violence in a deeply divided country where some protesters portray their causes as matters of life and death.

Lippert, 42, was recovering well but still complaining of pain in the wound on his left wrist and a finger where doctors repaired nerve damage, Severance Hospital official Yoon Do-Heum said in televised briefing. Doctors will remove the 80 stiches on Lippert's face on Monday or Tuesday and expect him to be out of the hospital by Tuesday or Wednesday. Hospital officials say he may experience sensory problems in his left hand for several months.

Police, meanwhile, searched the offices of the suspect, Kim Ki-jong, 55, for documents and computer files as they investigated how the attack was planned and whether others were involved. Police plan to soon request a warrant for Kim's formal arrest, and potential charges include attempted murder, assaulting a foreign envoy, obstruction and violating a controversial South Korean law that bars praise or assistance of North Korea, Jongno district police chief Yun Myung-sung told reporters.

Police are investigating Kim's past travels to North Korea — seven times between 1999 and 2007 — during a previous era of inter-Korean cooperation, when Seoul was ruled by a liberal government. Kim attempted to build a memorial altar for former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il after his death in December 2011, police said.

Kim, who has a long history of anti-U.S. protests, said he acted alone in the attack on Lippert. He told police it was meant as a protest of annual U.S.-South Korean military drills that started Monday — exercises that the North has long maintained are preparations for an invasion. Kim said the drills, which Seoul and Washington say are purely defensive, ruined efforts for reconciliation between the Koreas, according to police officials.

While most South Koreans look at the U.S. presence favorably, America infuriates some leftists because of its role in Korea's turbulent modern history.

Washington, which backed the South during the 1950-53 Korean War against the communist North, still stations 28,500 troops here, and anti-U.S. activists see the annual military drills with Seoul as a major obstacle to their goal of a unified Korea.

"South and North Korea should be reunified," Kim shouted as he slashed Lippert with a 25-centimeter (10-inch) knife, police and witnesses said.

Kim is well-known among police and activists as one of a hard-core group of protesters willing to use violence to highlight their causes.

Police didn't consider the possibility that Kim, who has ties to the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation, which hosted the breakfast meeting where Lippert was attacked, would show up for the event, according to a Seoul police official who didn't want to be named, citing office rules.

U.S. ambassadors have security details, but their size largely depends on the threat level of the post. Seoul is not considered to be a particularly high threat post despite its proximity to the North Korean border. It's not clear how many guards Lippert had, but they would have been fewer than the ambassadors in most of the Mideast.

Seoul's Foreign Ministry said it was the first time a foreign ambassador stationed in modern South Korea had been injured in a violent attack.

However, the Japanese ambassador narrowly escaped injury in 2010 when Kim threw a piece of concrete at him, according to police. Kim, who was protesting Japan's claim to small disputed islands that are occupied by South Korea, hit the ambassador's secretary instead, media reports said, and was sentenced to a three-year suspended prison term over the attack.

The website of the Woorimadang activist group that Kim heads describes the group's long history of anti-U.S. protests. Photos show him and other activists rallying last week in front of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul to protest the U.S.-South Korean military drills, which are to run until the end of April.

North Korea's state-controlled media crowed Thursday that Kim's "knife slashes of justice" were "a deserved punishment on war maniac U.S." and reflected the South Korean people's protests against the U.S. for driving the Korean Peninsula to the brink of war because of the joint military drills.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, in Saudi Arabia for meetings with regional leaders, said the U.S. "will never be intimidated or deterred by threats or by anybody who harms any American diplomats."

Activists in Seoul, meanwhile, expressed worries that the attack on Lippert would harm the public image of peaceful protesters, or prompt the conservative government to suppress their activities.

Small to medium-sized demonstrations regularly occur across Seoul, and most are peaceful.

But scuffles with police do break out occasionally, and the burning of effigies of North Korean and Japanese leaders is also common. Some demonstrators have also severed their own fingers, thrown bodily fluids at embassies and tried to self-immolate.


Lippert became ambassador last October and has been a regular presence on social media and in speeches and presentations during his time in Seoul. He's regularly seen walking his Basset Hound, Grigsby, near his residence, not far from where the attack happened. His wife gave birth here and the couple gave their son a Korean middle name.

-  Associated Press writers Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul and Matthew Lee in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, contributed to this report.

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Sony comedy film: The Interview looms cyber war as US-N.Korea tension spikes

The Interview is a 2014 American political comedy film directed by Seth Rogen and Evan 
Goldberg in their second directorial work, following This Is the End. The screenplay by Dan Sterling is from a story by Rogen, Goldberg and Sterling. The film stars Rogen and James Franco as journalists instructed to assassinate North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (played by Randall Park) after booking an interview with him. It received mixed reviews from critics.

In June 2014, the North Korean government threatened "merciless" action against the United States if the film's distributor, Columbia Pictures, went ahead with the release. Columbia delayed the release from October 10 to December 25, and reportedly edited the film to make it more acceptable to North Korea. In November, the computer systems of parent company Sony Pictures Entertainment were hacked by the "Guardians of Peace", a group the FBI believes has ties to North Korea. After leaking several other then-upcoming Sony films and other sensitive internal information, the group demanded that Sony pull The Interview, which it referred to as "the movie of terrorism". On December 16, 2014, the Guardians of Peace threatened terrorist attacks against cinemas that played The Interview.

On December 17, after a number of major North American cinema chains canceled screenings in the interest of safety, Sony canceled the theatrical release of The Interview, drawing criticism from the media, Hollywood figures and U.S. President Barack Obama. After initially stating that it had no plans to release the film, Sony made The Interview available for online rental on December 24, and in a limited release at selected cinemas on December 25. - Wikipedia



 Cyber war looms as US-NK tension spikes

North Korea's Internet and 3G networks were back to normal by midday Tuesday after hours of a strange shutdown. This blackout led to speculation that North Korea had been under cyber-attack from the US. It remains unknown whether the purported US-North Korea conflict will flare up into full-blown cyber war.

Sony Pictures, which has caught global attention for filming The Interview, a movie featuring the fictional assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, was attacked by a group of hackers recently. The FBI asserted that these hackers were sponsored by North Korea, and US President Barack Obama declared the US would make a "proportional response." Thus, there are high suspicions that Washington is behind the attack.

Neither Washington nor Pyongyang has commented officially on the incident. There are more threats to cyber security than ever before, and hacking groups not backed by governments have become mainstream. Countries like the US have established cyber armies, but there has been no declaration of a cyber war so far. Any party suspected of launching cyber invasions using its regular cyber army always denies its involvement.

We hope that Washington and Pyongyang will not engage in war in cyberspace. Once they cross the Rubicon, there is no way back.

The current suspected tit-for-tat situation between North Korea and the US raises the risks of a cyber war. Pyongyang has shown its abomination toward Sony Pictures. However, having denied any connections with the attacks, it hailed these actions as justified.

Washington has revealed its inclination to retaliate against Pyongyang, which is why many assume the Internet blackout in North Korea was its doing. Washington's response could be an overreaction, as it is implying that cyber attacks can be seen as a kind of legitimate state action, which will set a precedent for cyber wars.

Antagonism between North Korea and the US will remain a hot topic for quite a while in the international community. If more cyber attacks are launched in the near future, many people will believe that a cyber war between them has already broken out. It is possible that Washington is trying to teach Pyongyang a lesson and show its strength through cyber attacks. But it must keep in mind that its advanced networks also have loopholes, which might be taken advantage of by a single hacker and a computer.

The US must not set an example by engaging in cyber warfare. It might prevail in the short term, but the already vulnerable Internet order will be mired in countless trouble.

This North Korea-US cyber conflict has also reminded China that it must reinforce its cyber security and act as a constructive role to guard peace across the Internet. As for the speculation that it was China that cut off North Korea's Internet connections, these are spurious and do not merit our attention.- Global Times

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China sends peace message

The Boao Forum reiterates the need for regional stability for Asia to continue to enjoy economic prospects.



THE Boao Forum for Asia, which concluded in the small town of Boao on southern China’s Hainan island, has reached an important consensus from Asia.

Major Asian leaders want every country in the continent to ensure regional stability so that Asia will continue to enjoy its fast-paced economic prosperity.

Speaking at the opening of the forum, which was running for its 12th year, Chinese President Xi Jinping was the first to make clear his stand – China will not wage a war unless its enemy severely threatened its sovereignty.

He said that China would continue to resolve any differences and disputes it has with its Asian counterparts amicably while expanding cooperation in the continent.

“On the basis of maintaining the sovereignty and safety of our territories, we will work hard to maintain good relations with our neighbours as well as overall peace and stability in our region,” he said.

Xi said China is a peace-loving nation whose people have deep and painful memories of the war and revolt era.

He said China and its Asian neighbours relied on each other as China could not develop in isolation from the rest of Asia and the world, while the world could not enjoy prosperity and stability without China.

“Over the past decade, trade among Asian nations jumped from US$800bil (RM2.4 trillion) to US$3 trillion (RM9 trillion). Trade between Asian nations and other countries increased from US$1.5 trillion (RM4.6 trillion) to US$4.8 trillion (RM14.6 trillion).

“That means trade in Asia is open. Regional and global cooperation goes hand in hand and does not go against each other. Everyone benefits from such cooperation.”

Myanmarese President U Thein Sein said that his government would place great emphasis on collaboration, transparency, accountability and inclusiveness in its political, economic and social reform processes.

He said in spite of the increasing global challenges, uncertainties and high risks, all Asian nations should be able to remain successful in the continent by upholding regional political, social and economic stability continuously.

Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev said in order to boost the efficiency of cooperation, all Asian nations need to work together, coordinate with each other more and have a common action agenda.

He said they should explore their decision-making mechanism, accommodate the position of all countries and be more open to the outside world because no country could stay immune from the global impact.

Sultan of Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah said Asean has a role to play in promoting peace and collaboration.

Brunei’s Asean Chairmanship theme of “Our People, Our Future Together” this year reflects the vision of the Asean founders who believed open conflict would endanger the development prospect of its members.

Thus, they would be committed to refrain from the use of force.

“As the world becomes more and more connected, Asia’s success will contribute to a greater good in the global arena. We all share a collective responsibility in shaping a successful future.

“We are about to face competing political and economic interests and this will pose a threat to our resolve for partnership and harmony,” he said.

Indian Corporate Affairs Minister Sachin Pilot said Asia was one of the fastest growing continents in recent years but rapid growth would not occur if each country does its own thing in isolation.

“Good economics and robust growth are only attainable when there is understanding with each other.

“I am delighted to hear what the Chinese President was saying about how we need to have more peace and prosperity for us to grow.

“The global economic recovery can take 10 or 20 years, depending on how focused we are in Asia,” he said.

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard pointed out that what North Korea and South Korea were doing on the Korean Peninsula by provoking each other was the last thing Asia wanted to see.

“There, any aggression is a threat to the interest of every country in the region.

“For this reason, I do welcome the growing cooperation of all regional governments to prevent conflict on the Korean peninsula and to counter North Korean aggression.

“That cooperation is also a sign of what would be needed in future as we face other security challenges.

“Asia must be a region of sustainable security in which habits of cooperation are the norm,” she said.

Besides the latest tension on the Korean peninsula, Asia faces other security threats, especially the Kashmir conflict, Gaza Strip tension and counter-claims of islands and sea borders by China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indo-China.

For the sake of regional stability and integration, to start off with, the forum’s vice-chairman Zeng Peiyan proposed for more infrastructures to be built to connect Asian nations together.

“There are two main things we need to work on.

“Firstly, we should establish exchanges and cooperation between each Asian economy on planning and building infrastructures such as electricity, railway, road and telecommunication.

“Secondly, we need to find a solution to the huge financing gaps in infrastructure development in Asia.

“Between 2010 and 2020, Asia will need some US$8 trillion (RM24 trillion) or more to fund infrastructure projects to sustain the current levels of economic growth.

“It will be good that each nation sets up an investment fund which specialises in providing financing services for the construction of such infrastructures,” said Zeng.

Made in China
By CHOW HOW BAN

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Why North Korea conducts nuclear test?

The fallout from North Korea’s nuclear test will reach beyond its neighbours to the south. AAP/Yonhap



Overnight North Korea conducted its third nuclear weapons test. The test came in the wake of a successful long-range rocket launch in December and resulting condemnation from the United Nations Security Council via UNSC Resolution 2087.

This latest development raises two obvious questions: Why did North Korea conduct the test, and how might the international community react?

Pyongyang’s motives

The seismic signature of this blast registered 4.9 on the Richter scale, larger than a reading of 4.52 from a similar explosion in 2009.

There are several ways of interpreting the larger yield of the most recent blast.

It could have been a bigger bomb, ergo the larger explosion. This seems unlikely given Pyongyang’s need for a miniaturised weapon to demonstrate its deterrent capability.

It may have been North Korea’s first test of a uranium-based weapon using fissile material from Pyongyang’s advanced High Enriched Uranium (HEU) program. Uranium-based nuclear devices are more technologically sophisticated than plutonium bombs, but the uranium feedstock does not have to pass through the numerous processes of the nuclear fuel cycle to be weaponised. HEU installations are more efficient in producing fissile material and harder to detect because they bypass the reactor burn process, hence their appeal.

Or the test may have been of a smaller device packing a stronger punch. Miniaturisation is the next technological milestone for the North’s nuclear scientists in order to produce a nuclear warhead that is deliverable atop a missile. To confirm itself as a nuclear weapons power, North Korea must demonstrate it has developed a deployable nuclear device. A nuclear bomb has no deterrence value unless it can be reliably and accurately delivered to an enemy target.

International reaction

After every North Korean provocation, journalists and colleagues usually ask me how the international community is likely to react.

The international reaction is the most predictable variable in the equation. The answer is: more sanctions.

Why sanctions? Military force is essentially off the table. A casual glance at a map of the Korean peninsula will show that Seoul is essentially indefensible against North Korean rockets and artillery due to its close proximity to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

The estimated cost of war and reunification should an American military action escalate to full-scale war is estimated in the trillions of dollars and millions of lives, borne largely by South Korea. For any rational military strategist, the risks of an armed response to North Korea’s pin-prick provocations are prohibitive.

China fears the potential for economic and social dislocation in its northeastern provinces cause by large refugee flows from North Korea in the event of war or state collapse.

The pre-existing sanctions regime imposed by previous Security Council resolutions and domestic legal instruments includes measures such as restrictions on North Korean exports, asset freezes applied to specific North Korean citizens and enterprises, and controls on North Korean imports of dual-use technologies. The sanctions regime is enforced via the Proliferation Security Initiative, a global naval interdiction effort aimed at disrupting WMD trafficking.

Despite its stern rhetoric, the expansion of sanctions in UNSC 2087 was relatively mild. It placed travel bans and asset freezes on four officials and six state-owned enterprises from the North Korean space program and Pyongyang’s amorphous network of foreign exchange banks and dummy companies. This network exists to subvert international sanctions and fund North Korea’s nuclear and missile proliferation activities.

The sanctions regime has been largely ineffective in controlling North Korea’s nuclear and missile proliferation activities. There is a limit to the number of individuals and state-owned entities in North Korea that can be targeted for sanctions. One would therefore expect a new round of sanctions to include a crackdown on foreign entities thought to be assisting North Korean sanction-busting.

A stronger sanctions regime also requires cooperation from Beijing, as China is the country with the greatest economic leverage over the DPRK. Chinese foreign policy elites have been engaged in intense debate over the appropriate approach to North Korea for some time, however it is likely that the official policy of restrained disapproval will continue to carry the day.

Determined proliferation

The inability to prevent North Korea testing a nuclear device is evidence of its weak leverage over Pyongyang. Indeed it is the international community’s weak hand that creates the strategic space for relatively scot-free North Korean provocations.

North Korea is a determined nuclear weapons and ballistic missile proliferator, driven by a number of economic, strategic, political and bureaucratic motivations all linked to the regime’s over-arching goal of survival.

The successful test sends a powerful strategic signal that North Korea is serious about expanding its nuclear arsenal.

A South Korean official said that North Korea had notified the US and China of its nuclear test plan a day earlier.

Source: The Conversation - An independent analysis and commentary from academics and researchers.

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Olympic superpower

Olympics: China, Koreas are big winners in London

China may not have repeated their feats of Beijing 2008, but their presence in the top two was never in doubt. (AAP)

China proved they've arrived as a genuine Olympic super-power, and both Koreas impressed -- but Japan were top of the flops among Asian countries at the London Games.

China may not have repeated their feats of Beijing 2008, when they topped the medals table for the first time, but with 38 golds their presence in the top two, behind the United States, was never in doubt.
  
South Korea were the only other Asian team in the top 10. North Korea, finishing 20th, had their best Games in 20 years, Hong Kong celebrated cycling bronze and Singapore won their first individual medal in 52 years.
  
India couldn't follow Beijing by claiming their second individual gold, but they finished with two silver medals and four bronze -- their highest individual total.
  
Much as expected, China's divers and badminton and table tennis players missed just two gold medals between them, and their weightlifters hoisted five titles at London's ExCeL.
  
But China's shooters were off-target compared to Beijing, winning only two golds, and their gymnasts dropped from seven victories in 2008 to three on the London apparatus.
  
China's track hopes went up in smoke when 110m hurdler Liu Xiang, the 2004 champion, heart-breakingly limped out of the heats for the second Games running with a career-threatening Achilles tendon tear.
  
But his brave hop down the track to the finish line, symbolic kiss of the last hurdle, and embrace by his waiting competitors, was one of the Games' most memorable images.
  
Meanwhile Sun Yang and Ye Shiwen, 16, led China to their best performance in the pool, claiming two wins and a world record each as the team broke through with five titles in one of the Olympics' top-tier events.
  
Sun became China's first male Olympic swimming champion in the 400m freestyle, and then broke the 1500m world record for the second time in a year.
  
Ye set a new mark in the women's 400m medley and also won the 200m medley, while Jiao Liuyang won the women's 200m butterfly. Unproven doping speculation surrounding Ye was angrily dismissed by Sun.
  
"People think China has so many gold medals because of doping and other substances, but I can tell you it is because of hard work," said Sun.
  
"It is all down to training and hard work that we have results. Chinese are not weaker than those in other countries."
  
China, South Korea and Indonesia were also embroiled in one of the Games' worst scandals, when eight badminton players were disqualified for trying to lose group ties to secure easier quarter-finals.
  
South Korea's peerless archers, included the legally blind Im Dong-Hyun, hit the bull's-eye with three out of four gold medals, and their shooters added three more at the Royal Artillery Barracks.
  
They had two more in judo and two in fencing -- but none for Shin A-Lam, whose tearful, hour-long protest over her loss in the women's epee semis won sympathy and media coverage, but no Olympic medal.
  
North Korea's Games made an unpromising start when their women's footballers were pictured next to the South Korean flag on a stadium big screen, prompting a lengthy protest.
  
But tiny, 1.52m (five foot) weightlifter Om Yun-Chol put them on the gold trail when he lifted three times his bodyweight to win the 56kg category with a world record-equalling 293kg.
  
Kim Un-Guk and Rim Jong-Sim also lifted their way to gold at the ExCeL venue, while An Kum-Ae got judo gold on the opening weekend as North Korea matched their best ever haul of four titles at Barcelona 1992.
  
Japan, who are bidding to host the Games in 2020, had high hopes of emulating their record total of 16 gold medals. But after a near-wipeout in the judo, they ended with just seven.
  
South Korea rubbed salt into the wound when they beat Japan, their fiercest rivals, 2-0 for men's football bronze.
  
South Korea's Park Jong-Woo celebrated by waving a politically sensitive banner laying claim to an island group claimed by both countries. He was later barred from collecting his medal.
  
Sarah Lee Wai-Sze pedalled to Hong Kong's first cycling medal, bronze in the keirin, and China-born Feng Tianwei ended Singapore's half-century wait for an individual medal with bronze in the women's table tennis.
  
Malaysia got their first diving medal after Pandelela Rinong's bronze in the 10m platform, and there was a wave of sympathy for badminton star Lee Chong Wei, who fell just short of claiming the country's first gold.
  
Indonesia won two weightlifting medals, but nothing in badminton for the first time in 20 years, and Thailand had medals in boxing, taekwondo and weightlifting.

Source: AF

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The mystery woman from N. Korea is leader's wife

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea's new young leader, Kim Jong-un, is married, state media said on Wednesday, putting an end to speculation over the relationship with a woman seen at his side during recent events.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (C) and his wife (red), who was named by the state broadcaster as Ri Sol-ju, visit the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground in Pyongyang in this undated picture released by the North's KCNA on July 25, 2012. REUTERS/KCNA

The announcement, which fits a trend the upbeat Kim has followed to break out of the dour management style of his late father, Kim Jong-il, came just two weeks after he was seen at a gala performance accompanied by the woman, with rumours swirling as to whether she was his wife, lover or sister.

"Kim Jong-un's move appears to give the youth hoping for change, especially young women, a favourable impression of him although it can make conservative old North Koreans uncomfortable," said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute think tank.

"Although Kim Jong-un continues a one-man dictatorship, he is expected to have a more open attitude in culture than in the Kim Jong-il era."

Some observers in South Korea speculated she was a singer, Hyon Song-wol, he dated years ago before his father put a stop to it, but who was now back on the scene.

But the North Korean state broadcaster named his wife as Ri Sol-ju, without giving details. It is not clear when the two tied the knot.

Recent TV footage showed the two laughing with each other, touching a child's hair together and clapping while watching a performance featuring western show tunes and Mickey Mouse.

"While a welcoming song was playing, our party and people's supreme leader, Marshal Kim Jong-un, came out from a ceremony of the completion (of a 'pleasure ground') with wife, Ri Sol-ju," it said.

Kim, in his late-20s, took over the family dynasty last December with the death of his father, whose rule took North Korea deeper into isolation, abject poverty and large-scale political repression.

KIM DID IT HIS WAY

Since then he has taken a more glitzy approach, at least on the surface, to ruling a country which is locked in a stand-off with the West over its nuclear weapons programme.

Once the official mourning period was over, the youngest Kim to rule North Korea was seen laughing with fusty old generals, gesticulating in delight at a military parade and, the biggest shock of all, speaking. Most North Koreans went to their graves never having seen Kim the elder speak.

Kim the younger has steadily worked to impose his own stamp on the top leadership of North Korea, and on Sunday ousted Vice Marshal Ri Yong-ho, the country's leading military figure, who was seen as close to Kim Jong-il.

Kim was named marshal of the army in a move that adds to his glittering array of titles and cements his power. He already heads the Workers' Party of Korea and is First Chairman of the National Defence Commission.

He is also gearing up to experiment with agricultural and economic reforms after purging Ri Yong-ho for opposing change, a source with ties to both Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters earlier.

This month's unusual gala performance, where Kim was seen with his wife, featured Walt Disney's "It's A Small World", a thumping rock version of the theme tune to "Rocky" and Frank Sinatra's "My Way", a song that might have particular appeal to the Kim family, whose word is law in North Korea.

Bizarrely for a state which frequently voices its loathing for all things American, it featured a cast of Disney characters, including Winnie the Pooh and Minnie Mouse.

The family does have a previous Disney connection: the ruler's elder brother, Kim Jong-nam, said he was on his way to Tokyo Disneyland when he was caught illegally entering Japan in 2001.

(Editing by Nick Macfie)

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 Who is this mystery woman from North Korea?

Who is this mystery woman from North Korea?

Mystery woman with North Korea's new leader Kim Jong-un stirs speculation

Singer or sister? Speculation is rife over who this woman is. Photo: AFP/KCNA via KNS

A mystery woman pictured accompanying North Korea's new leader Kim Jong-un to recent events has prompted speculation in Seoul about whether she is his partner or his younger sister.

The North's state television on Sunday aired footage of the woman joining Kim Jong-un as he paid tribute to his late grandfather Kim Il-sung on the anniversary of his death in 1994.

Some South Korea media reports suggested she was Kim's younger sister Yo-Jong. Others suggested she may be Kim's wife or lover. 

Top officials including ceremonial head of state Kim Yong-nam and army chief Ri Yong-ho accompanied the leader to Pyongyang's Kumsusan Palace, where the embalmed body of the nation's first president lies in state.

Who is she? Kim Jong-un is pictured during a visit to Kumsusan Palace with an unidentified woman. Photo: AFP/North Korean TV

The TV footage showed the woman, apparently in her twenties or thirties, walking next to the leader. She bowed with him before a portrait of Kim Il-sung.

The short-haired woman, clad in a black suit, was also pictured sitting next to Kim Jong-un at a concert by a state orchestra on Friday.
Some South Korea media reports suggested she was Kim's younger sister Yo-Jong, who is believed to have studied in Switzerland along with him in the 1990s. Others suggested she may be Kim's wife or lover.

This screen grab shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, centre, with a mystery woman paying tribute to his late grandfather Kim Il-sung. Photo: AFP/North Korean TV

Seoul's intelligence agency and unification ministry, in charge of cross-border affairs, declined to comment.

The speculation highlighted the degree of secrecy in the North about the private lives of its rulers.
Kim Jong-un took power after the death of his father Kim Jong-il last December but the outside world does not even know his exact age.

An unidentified woman pictured standing behind Kim Jong-un during mourning for his late father last December was identified by some sources as the new leader's younger sister.

JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said the woman pictured in recent days may be Hyon Song-wol, a famous state singer rumoured to be the leader's lover.

It said she disappeared from public view in 2006 but was seen on TV again in March, apparently late in pregnancy.

"Hyon was a friend of Kim since they were teenagers and there is a rumour among the North's elites that she was his lover," it quoted an unidentified Seoul intelligence official as saying.

But Yang Moo-jin of Seoul's University of North Korean Studies said there was "little chance" the mystery woman was Kim's partner, given that the country's past first ladies have rarely made public appearances with leaders.

"She could be Yo-Jong or perhaps a daughter of one of the mistresses of the late Kim Jong-il ... so that Jong-un can publicly showcase the solidarity in the ruling family," Yang said.

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North Korea Satellite & Rocket Launch Failed

DPRK confirms satellite failed to enter orbit

Pyongyang, April 13 (Xinhua) -- An earth observation satellite launched by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) earlier Friday morning has failed to enter orbit, and scientists and technicians are now looking into the cause of the failure, the official KCNA news agency reported.

The Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite was launched at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province at 07:38 a.m. on Friday (2238 GMT Thursday), said the report.

"The earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit.Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure," it said.

The DPRK's failed launch has aroused international concerns, with the United States, Japan and South Korea all condemning the move, which they viewed had breached relevant UN resolutions.

The DPRK has said that its launch is for peaceful purposes and would not harm the region and neighboring countries.

This still from an Analytical Graphics, Inc., video animation depicts North Korea's Unha-3 rocket and Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite in the last leg of a potential orbital launch in April 2012.
CREDIT: Analytical Graphics, Inc.View full size image
North Korea Rocket Launch Envisioned in Video Animation via @SPACEdotcom

North Korea has launched its long-range rocket but the US, Japan and South Korea say it failed shortly after take-off and fell into the sea. There has been no word yet from Pyongyang on the launch. 

North Korea says the aim of the rocket is to launch a satellite but critics say the launch constituted a disguised test of long-range missile technology banned under UN resolutions.

As the world watches and waits to see if North Korea will continue in its bid to launch a long-range rocket despite international warnings, a new video animation reveals just how the space test could occur.

The new video, released late Wednesday (April 11) by the analytical firm Analytical Graphics Inc., covers North Korea's planned Unha-3 rocket launch, showing the flight trajectory from a point just after liftoff through the separation of its satellite payload.


"AGI has used its software to produce a video demonstrating the launch and its possible path, tracking assets and landing zones," AGI officials wrote in a media alert.

North Korean space officials have said the Unha-3 rocket will launch a new Earth-observing satellite sometime between April 12 and April 16 to honor the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea. Critics of the launch, which include the United States, Japan and South Korea, claim the launch is a cover for a missile test that violates United Nations Security Council resolutions. [Images: North Korea's Rocket and Missile Program]

According to AGI's video animation of the Unha-3 rocket launch, the three-stage booster will blast off from the new North Korean launch site near the northwest village of Tongchang-ri, which corresponds with official statements from North Korea and Western observers. The rocket will then head in a southerly direction and drop its first stage in the Yellow Sea well to the west of South Korea, where officials have said they would shoot down any parts of the Unha-3 territory that threatened to fall on South Korean territory.

The next stage of the Unha-3 rocket would likely fall just to the east of the Philippines after the booster's third stage and payload — the Earth-monitoring satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 — separates and heads towards orbit, the AGI animation shows.

If the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite reaches its intended polar orbit, its trajectory would carry it over a major stretch of Australia after the spacecraft separates from the Unha-3 rocket, according to the AGI depiction.

North Korea's Unha-3 rocket appears to be a liquid-fueled rocket that stands about 100 feet (30 meters) tall. The Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite, meanwhile, is a boxy, solar-powered spacecraft, according to videos and images in media reports, as well as the AGI video.

Exactly which day of the current window North Korea will launch the Unha-3 rocket is not yet certain, though the country's space organization did begin fueling the rocket for liftoff on Wednesday, suggesting a potential launch attempt in upcoming days, according to press reports.
Follow SPACE.com for the latest in space science and exploration news on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

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Can Kim Jong-un be North Korea's Deng Xiaoping?

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By Isabel Hilton guardian.co.uk,

The death of Kim Jong-il recalls Mao's. But China, unlike paranoid North Korea, opted for the path of reform 

A North Korean child is overcome by grief at the death of Kim Jong-il. Photograph: AP

There is little room for nuance in our view of North Korea. State television parades sobbing citizens and soldiers apparently convulsed with grief at the loss of Kim Jong-il. Western commentators dismiss these scenes as propaganda.

Much of this display is certainly ritual, enacted for the camera and for watching comrades and informers. To fail to grieve for the loss of the "dear leader" is a poor career move. But for some the emotions may be real enough: the regime has cultivated in the people an intense gratitude to the Kim family, from the hero-founder Kim Il-sung, whose centenary will be celebrated next year, to his grandson, Kim Jong-un.

Kim Il-sung died in 1994, a time of terrible famine when there was little to be grateful for in North Korea. But refugees interviewed by the American journalist Barbara Demick – men and women who escaped to the south – reported their own intense feelings of bereavement for a leader whom they had been taught to revere as the embodiment of North Korean resistance, nationalism and independence.



Viewed from Beijing, these displays are easier to read: the death of Mao Zedong, whose tyrannical gifts were more than equal to those of the Kim dynasty, sparked similar scenes in China. Like the North Koreans, Chinese had lived under a regime of intense ideological control with limited information about the outside world, and were taught to regard their leader as the embodiment of national resistance to foreign aggression. Mao has never been dethroned as the regime's founding father, but as Beijing struggles to maintain its own internal stability, the question it asks of its troublesome neighbour is: will North Korea follow the Chinese path to reform?

In China Deng Xiaoping was waiting in the wings, a military and political veteran who triumphed over Mao by outliving him and doggedly undoing his legacy. North Koreans, instead, are expected to transfer their affections to a chubby 28 year-old who was catapulted to four-star general status in September last year. The customary chestful of medals will doubtless follow.

Kim Jong-il was nobody's political naif, so we must assume that he judged his third son the best available choice. The fact remains that, beyond the cachet of his DNA, Kim Jong-un has no military or political heft. Whether he has any interest in reform is impossible to gauge; whether it would matter if he did seems unlikely – he will depend on the support of military and the party for his power, and any change of course would have to begin there.

Planning for this transition has been under way since Kim Jong-il's stroke in 2008 with Beijing taking a close interest. China has muted its irritation at North Korea's repeated provocations and stepped up economic and trade relations as a buffer against any derailment of the succession planning. For now, Beijing hopes it will go smoothly enough to avoid any disturbance in China's three north-eastern border provinces.

The Chinese army has well-honed contingency plans to intervene in North Korea in the event of a breakdown, but hopes never to be forced to enact them, standing instead as Pyongyang's guarantor of investment, and of food and energy supplies. Beijing has no desire to cope with a flood of refugees across its nearly 900 miles of border, or to risk the intervention from US-backed South Korea that a collapse in the north could provoke.

The Chinese press has increasingly questioned what China gets out of the relationship with North Korea. For now, though, China has little choice but to pay the bills, while nudging the regime towards the kind of transformational reforms that Deng Xiaoping launched after the death of Mao.

A leadership change offers the regime an opportunity to shape a new narrative, and China's experience till now shows that economic reform need not threaten authoritarian power. To date, though, Pyongyang has shown only limited enthusiasm for the Chinese model. Without more radical reform, the already enormous economic gap between North Korea and its neighbours will only grow, and keep the country isolated and paranoid.

North Korean dependency on China is already stark: China provides 90% of the investment and accounts for 80% of North Korea's trade. China is building power plants, roads and transport infrastructure, Chinese businesses have invested in factories in North Korea's economic development zones, and exports of iron ore and coal to China from North Korea are important earners.

For both Beijing and Pyongyang, this dependency is a mixed blessing. South Korea, Japan and the US may be the bogeymen invoked to frighten North Korean children, but North Korea is also wary of becoming an economic colony of its giant neighbour. North Korea's main international weapon is blackmail: waving its nuclear capability in the face of the US and threatening China with instability. It works, after a fashion, but it is not a recipe for early reform.

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N Korean leader Kim Jong Il dies !

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Kim Jong Il dies aged 70

Little is likely in North Korean after the death of its leader Kim Jong Il. Daniel Flitton reports.

• A skilled and ruthless ruler
• Son, 27, now a 4-star general
• Son who shuns the limelight
• Kim's kids: the playboy and the pupil

Kim Jong-il, the second-generation North Korean dictator who defied global condemnation to build nuclear weapons while his people starved, has died at the age of 69, Yonhap News reported.

The South Korean military has been put on emergency alert with their communist neighbour now set to follow Kim Jong-il's son Kim Jong-un, believed to be 27.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il (R) looks at his youngest son Kim Jong-un as they watched a parade last year. Photo: Reuters

The news of the death of  "Dear Leader" was delivered by a weeping announcer in a broadcast at noon local time, Yonhap reported, citing North Korea's official media.

The official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the leader ''passed away from a great mental and physical strain'' at 8.30am on Saturday (1030 AEDT Saturday), while on a train for one of his ''field guidance'' tours.

Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in August 2008 and may have also had pancreatic cancer, according to South Korean news reports.  KCNA said Kim died of a ''severe myocardial infarction along with a heart attack''. It said an autopsy was performed on Sunday.

 

Dear Leader ... Kim Jong-il Photo: Reuters

National mourning

His funeral will be held on December 28 in Pyongyang but no foreign delegations will be invited, KCNA said. A period of national mourning was declared from December 17 to 29.
The news came as North Korea prepared for a hereditary succession. Kim Jong-il inherited power after his father, revered North Korean founder Kim Il-sung, died in 1994.

In September 2010, Kim Jong-il declared his third son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor, putting him in high-ranking posts.

Flashback ... North Korean leader Kim Jong Il acknowledging applause from soldiers as he inspects the Korean People's Army Unit.

South Korea's military has been put on emergency alert following Kim's death, the Yonhap news agency reported, adding that South Korea's presidential Blue House had called an emergency National Security Council meeting.

'Chain-smoking recluse'

Kim was a chain-smoking recluse who ruled for 17 years after coming to power in July 1994 and resisted opening up to the outside world in order to protect his regime.

Flashback ... Pictures of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un burnt during anti-North Korea rally in Seoul. Photo: Reuters

He was born, according to his official biographers, in a mountain cabin in North Korea in February 1942, an occasion marked by a double rainbow and a bright star.

But other records said he was actually born in Siberia in 1941, the BBC reported. His father had been exiled to Siberia.
He was believed to be a fan of Hollywood movies and reportedly had a library of 20,000 films, the BBC said.

Click for more photos

The life and times of Kim Jong Il.

Kim Jong-Il on his luxury yacht soon after the death of his father. Photo: Kyodo

Other official reports about Kim included claims that he had shot 11 holes-in-one the first time he picked up a golf club, that he could alter the weather just using his mind and that he had started walking at three-weeks-old and talking at eight weeks, London's Daily Telegraph reported.

Kim's official biography said that in elementary school he showed his revolutionary spirit by leading marches to battlefields where Korean rebels fought against Japanese occupiers of the peninsula.

By the time he was in middle school he had shown himself to be an exemplary factory worker who could repair trucks and electric motors, the biography claimed.

He went to Kim Il-sung University where he studied the great works of communist thinkers as well as his father's revolutionary theory, in a systematic way, state propaganda said.

North Korea analysts said however, Kim lived a life of privilege in the capital, Pyongyang, when his family returned to the divided peninsula in 1945.

The Soviets later installed Kim Il-sung as the new leader of North Korea and the family lived in a Pyongyang mansion formerly occupied by a Japanese officer.

Kim Jong Il's younger brother mysteriously drowned in a pool at the residence in 1947.

Many of his younger years would have been spent in China receiving an education, analysts said.

Anointed successor

After graduating from college, Kim joined the ruling Worker's Party of Korea in 1964 and quickly rose through its ranks. By 1973, he was the party's secretary of organisation and propaganda, and in 1974 his father anointed him as his successor.

Kim gradually increased his power in domestic affairs over the following years and his control within the ruling party greatly increased when the younger Kim was given senior posts in the Politburo and Military Commission in 1980.

Intelligence experts say Kim ordered a 1983 bombing in Myanmar that killed 17 senior South Korean officials and the destruction of a Korean Air jetliner in 1987 that killed 115.

He is also suspected of devising plans to raise cash by kidnapping Japanese, dealing drugs through North Korean embassies and turning the country into a major producer of counterfeit currency.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Photo: Reuters >>

Kim was known as a womaniser, a drinker and a movie buff, according to those people who had been in close contact with him and later left the country. He was said to enjoy ogling Russian dancing girls, amassing a wine cellar with more than 10,000 bottles and downing massive amounts of lobster and cognac.

North Korea's propaganda machine painted a much more different picture.

It said Kim piloted jet fighters - even though he travelled by land for his infrequent trips abroad. He penned operas, had a photographic memory and produced movies, it was claimed.

When he first took power in 1994, many analysts thought Kim's term as North Korea's leader would be short-lived and powerful elements in the military would rise up to take control of the state.

The already anaemic economy was in a shambles due to the end of the Cold War and the loss of traditional trading partners. Poor harvests and floods led about one million people to die in a famine in the 1990s after he took power.

Despite the tenuous position from which he started, Kim managed to stay in power. He also installed economic reforms that were designed to bring a small and controlled amount of free-market economics into the state-planned economy.

Nuclear tests

Lampooned by foreign cartoonists and filmmakers for his weight, his zippered jumpsuits, his aviator sunglasses and his bouffant hairdo, Kim cut a more serious figure in his rare dealings with world leaders outside the Communist bloc.

''If there's no confrontation, there's no significance to weapons,'' he told Madeleine Albright, then US secretary of state, in a 2000 meeting in Pyongyang.

Those words took on greater significance in 2009 as Kim defied threats of United Nations sanctions to test a second nuclear device and a ballistic missile, technically capable of striking Alaska.

The following year North Korea lashed out militarily, prompting stern warnings from the US and South Korea.

An international investigation blamed Kim's regime for the March 2010 sinking of the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan that killed 46 sailors.

Eight months later North Korea shelled a South Korean island, killing two soldiers, two civilians and setting homes ablaze.

The act followed reports by an American scientist that the country had made ''stunning'' advances to its uranium-enrichment program.

Kim Jong Un: the new leader?

The potential succession of his little-known third son, Kim Jong Un, threatens to trigger a dangerous period for the Korean peninsula, where 1.7 million troops from the two Koreas and the US square off every day.

''Kim Jong Il inherited a genius for playing the weak hand and by keeping the major powers nervous, continuing his father's tradition of turning Korea's history of subservience on its head,'' said Michael Breen, the Seoul-based author of Kim Jong Il: North Korea's Dear Leader, a biography.

''We have entered an uncertain moment with North Korea.''

The death of the North Korean leader had created political uncertainty with the succession issue a "big question mark," according to Sandy Mehta, chief executive officer of Value Investment Principals Ltd, Bloomberg reported.

"We could see a lot of internal turmoil in North Korea," Mehta, based in Hong Kong, said in e-mailed comments.

"Long-term, with Kim Jong Il out of the picture, we could be looking at a more rational country, which would be positive for the Korean peninsula and the Asian region."

Professor Yang Moo Jin of the University of North Korean Studies told Reuters the "chances that the North Korean military is attempting a coup are very low because North Korea has called itself a nation sharing a common destiny with Kim Jong Un".

"I think the collective leadership of the party, government and military will go on for a while, because Kim Jong Un is still young.

"Now, South Korea urgently needs to think of who in North Korea it has to deal with. South Korea doesn't want any instability in North Korea so will probably work to expand its cooperation efforts."

Chung Young Tae of the Korea Institute of National Unification added that Kim's death was "somewhat expected".

"What happens from now is very important. Any prospect for a strong and prosperous country is now gone," he told Reuters.

"Kim Jong-un is not yet the official heir, but the regime will move in the direction of Kim Jong-un taking centre stage. There is a big possibility that a power struggle may happen. It's likely the military will support Kim Jong-un.

"Right now there will be control wielded over the people to keep them from descending into chaos in this tumultuous time."