Share This

Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Reversing declining R&D investments

 The country's gross expenditure on the segment has been on downtrend in the past couple of years. More investments are needed in high-growth areas that will yield strong returns.


SIX decades ago, Malaysia was richer than South Korea and Taiwan.

But today, the country is behind these two technology superpowers and is still trying to break out of the middle-income trap.

Taiwan overtook Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the mid-70s, and not long after that, South Korea overtook Malaysia in the mid-80s.

A major reason for Malaysia lagging behind Taiwan and South Korea is the failure to invest adequately in research and development (R&D) that ultimately resulted in low local technology creation.

This is reflected in the number of patents granted, as mentioned in the World Intellectual Property Indicators report.

In 2022, a total of 6,876 patents were granted in Malaysia, out of which almost 85% were granted to non-residents.

In contrast, South Korea granted 145,882 patents in 2022. Three out of four patents in that year were granted to residents.

Official figures show that Malaysia’s gross expenditure on R&D (GERD) has been declining in the past several years, even before the Covid-19 pandemic.

In fact, the country’s GERD per GDP dropped to just 0.95% in 2020, which was the lowest since 2010.For comparison, countries like South Korea, the United States and Japan spent 4.81%, 3.45% and 3.26% of their GDP in 2020 for R&D, respectively.

Notably, China’s GERD per GDP stood at 2.4% in 2020, significantly higher than Malaysia despite having an almost similar GDP per capita.

It is noteworthy that Malaysia is well behind its GERD per GDP target of 3.5% by 2030. The intermediate target is 2.5% by 2025, which is just two years’ away.


Science, Technology and Innovation (Mosti) Minister Chang Lih Kang

In a reply to StarBizWeek, Science, Technology and Innovation (Mosti) Minister Chang Lih Kang acknowledges that the gap to achieve the 2030 target is “stark and significant”.

He also adds that there is a funding shortfall of RM40bil to achieve the 2025 target.

“The slump in GERD before 2020 primarily stems from a dwindling contribution from the business sector, which started around 2016.

“While the government has consistently provided substantial R&D funding, it’s imperative for the business and industry sectors to substantially participate.

“After all, these sectors stand to gain the most from R&D innovations, utilising outcomes to enhance products, refine business processes, and overall drive competitive advantage,” says Chang.

Malaysia’s long-delayed ambition to become a high-income nation relies on the country’s ability to effectively spend on R&D efforts in high-potential areas.

Increased R&D efforts that would lead to greater technology adoption in the country are highly necessary, considering that Malaysia is set to become a super-aged country by 2056.

Amid declining fertility rates, more of the country’s workforce must be automated and mechanised to avert any crisis in the future.

Mosti Minister Chang also says that a higher expenditure on R&D serves as a foundational indicator in many global indices like the Global Innovation Index (GII) and the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI).

In the Madani Economy framework unveiled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim last month, these two indices were mentioned as some of the key performance indicators (KPIs), moving forward.

Anwar envisages Malaysia to be among the top 20 countries in GII by 2025. As for GCI, Malaysia aims to rank in the top 12 within the next 10 years.

It is understandable why Anwar hopes to improve Malaysia’s ranking in such indices.

“These indices are meticulously scrutinised by foreign investors when determining potential investment destinations,” according to Chang.

Spending it right

A similarity between South Korea and Malaysia is the fact that both governments have in the past invested significantly in building local industries, including for R&D efforts.

“Chaebols” or South Korean mega-conglomerates were once small businesses that received generous support from the government since the early 1960s. This has helped to nurture internationally recognised brands such as Samsung and Hyundai.

Similarly, Malaysia has also channelled billions of ringgit into profit-driven entities such as car manufacturer Proton and semiconductor wafer foundry Silterra.

However, unlike in South Korea, these heavy industrialisation projects that were introduced during the administration of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad failed to sustain commercially and continued to depend on government handouts.

These two projects have since been privatised. Proton Holdings Bhd made a rebound after China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding emerged in the carmaker with a 49.1% stake.

Meanwhile, Silterra was sold to Dagang NeXchange Bhd (Dnex) and Beijing Integrated Circuit Advanced Manufacturing and High-End Equipment Equity Investment Fund Centre (Limited Partnership) – also known as CGP Fund.

Dnex holds a 60% stake in Silterra, while CGP Fund owns the remaining 40%.

An analyst explains that the failure of Proton and Silterra was the result of continued government funding in the past, even if the management did not achieve tangible results.

“South Korea was different. You have a set of KPIs outlined along the timeline. If you don’t perform, you won’t get the money,” the analyst says.

Like it or not, the government has a big role to play in stimulating R&D efforts in the market.

The US government, for instance, is a major funder of R&D and is also a major user of the new innovations that may have yet to receive demand from the public.

It is noteworthy that the Internet and the global positioning system (GPS) began as projects under the US Department of Defence.

It is typical of the private sector to innovate and to create new products only when they foresee market opportunities.

With shareholders’ ultimate focus being on profit, the private sector may have its limitations when it comes to risk-taking.

In the case of Malaysia, businesses do not reinvest an adequate amount of their profits into R&D, despite the fact that Malaysian companies retain high operating profits.

In 2022, the gross operating surplus of businesses constituted 67% of GDP, which increased from 62.6% in 2021.

The easy supply of cheap foreign workers, particularly before the pandemic, has further allowed Malaysian companies to avoid R&D and automating a large part of their operations.

Distinguished professor of economics Datuk Rajah Rasiah agrees that the domestic private sector does not invest adequately in R&D.

“As firms move up the technology trajectory towards frontier innovations, they expect strong support from the embedding ecosystem, especially the science, technology, and innovation (STI) infrastructure.

“Although Malaysia did attempt to create the STI infrastructure after 1991, almost all of them (such as Mimos, Science and Technology Parks and the incubators in them as well as the Malaysian Technology Development Corp) were not effectively governed, and hence, they have become white elephants.

“Given the lack of such support and ineffective governance of incentives and grants in the selection, monitoring and appraisal of their output, private firms are unconvinced that attempts to upgrade to participate in R&D will materialise,” he says.

Techpreneur Tan Aik Keong also points out that Malaysian companies face fundraising difficulties for R&D purposes, especially small and medium enterprises and unlisted companies.

Tan was recently appointed as a member of the National Digital Economy and Fourth Industrial Revolution Council. He is also the CEO of ACE Market-listed Agmo Holdings Bhd.

“Investors and lenders may hesitate to support R&D initiatives due to the inherent risks and uncertainties associated with these endeavours.

“The lack of a guaranteed correlation between R&D investment and immediate revenue generation can lead to doubts about the return on investment (ROI),” he says.Tan opines that the lack of “proven success stories” whereby R&D investments in Malaysia resulted in significant ROIs contributed to the scepticism.

In addition, he says that companies with no prior experience in R&D investments would find it challenging to start investing heavily in R&D.

“For listed entities, there is relatively more flexibility in terms of fundraising for R&D purposes.

“Capital market instruments such as private placements and rights issues can be leveraged to raise larger sums of funds to support R&D initiatives.

“Fortunately, the availability of matching grants from agencies like Mosti, MDEC, Miti, and MTDC can provide much-needed financial support and incentive for companies to invest in R&D activities,” he says.

Acknowledging the challenges, Mosti Minister Chang says that alternative financing mechanisms are being considered

A notable example is the Malaysia Science Endowment (MSE), which has set an ambitious goal of raising RM2bil.

“MSE is more than an alternative R&D funding for the nation.

“The working model is to utilise its interest, which will be generated from the investment.

“The fund would be optimised further through a matching fund mechanism – bringing quadruple helix stakeholders together to focus on solution-driven R&D and prioritising based on the nation’s needs,” he says.

Mosti, with Akademi Sains Malaysia, is currently actively developing a fund-raising mechanism to establish the MSE.

In addition, Chang says the government will continue to deploy a myriad of fiscal incentives that include tax exemptions and double deductions on R&D expenditures.“The overarching goal is to promote a symbiotic relationship where both the private sector and the government collaborate seamlessly to advance Malaysia’s R&D aspirations,” he says.

Lack of quality researchers?

R&D efforts are not just about investing a large sum of money. They will only yield best results if they are supported by qualified, world-class researchers.

Unfortunately, in the case of Malaysia, brain drain has become a major challenge in pushing for greater R&D.

The ongoing decline in interest among schoolchildren in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) studies will only worsen the situation in the future.

Agmo’s Tan notes that the declining interest in science subjects among students threatens the availability of skilled researchers, scientists, and engineers needed for a thriving R&D ecosystem.

“The potential for brain drain is a legitimate concern if Malaysia does not foster an environment conducive to R&D growth,” he says.

In 2020, Malaysia saw a decline in the number of researchers per 10,000 labour force at only 31.4 persons, as compared to 74 persons in 2016.

At 31.4 persons, this was the lowest level since 2010.

Rajah says that Malaysia lacks quality R&D researchers, as well as engineers and technicians to support serious R&D participation.

“Malaysia’s researchers and R&D personnel in the labour force fall way below that of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and China.

“In fact, this is one of the major reasons why national and foreign firms participate little in R&D activities in Malaysia,” he adds.

When asked about the commercialisation of research done by Malaysian universities, Rajah says the commercialisation ratio against grants received in Malaysia is very low.

This is compared to the Silicon Valley and Route 128 in the US, the science parks in Taiwan, and the Vinnova targeted areas in Sweden.

However, Rajah says the blame for the low rate is mistakenly placed on the scientists.

“Most universities in Malaysia focus on scientific publications, which is a major KPI for them. Malaysia does well on scientific publications.

“Mosti and the Higher Education Ministry should make intellectual property (IP) and commercialisation equally important.

“In doing so, the government must tie grants and incentives to link researchers and firms by offering matching grants so that the research undertaken by the scientists are targeted to the pursuit of IPs and monetary returns.

“Firms in this case will ensure that the 1:1 sharing of funds with the government brings returns for them – widely undertaken successfully in Japan, the Netherlands and Taiwan,” he says.

At the same time, Rajah suggests a critical appraisal of previous grants approved to ensure that mistakes are not repeated.

CLICK TO ENLARGECLICK TO ENLARGE

In further strengthening the country R&D expertise, there are calls to improve universities’ curriculum more holistically.

Technology consultant Mohammad Shahir Shikh said there is a gap and misalignment between industries’ requirements versus theoretical research in new knowledge discovery by the universities.

He calls for greater partnership between universities and the industry, including for improving business operations via the integration of new technologies.

Mohammad Shahir has previously served as an engineer with chipmaker AMD for 11 years.

He raises concerns about the severe shortage of STEM graduates in Malaysia to serve the needs of the industries.

“The country’s target was to have 500,000 STEM graduates by 2020, but we now have only 68,000 such graduates.

“Even then, the highest number of unemployed graduates here is from the STEM stream.

“My proposal to the government is to start assisting potential schools and STEM students become familiar with scientific terms in English and improve their communication skills,” he adds.

Mohammad Shahir points out that about 30% of Finland’s workforce consists graduates from the STEM stream.

“This is a priority that needs to be addressed if we want to achieve our national innovation goals,” he says.

National STEM Association president and founder Prof Datuk Dr Noraini Idris laments that only about 15% of form four students take pure science subjects, namely physics, chemistry, biology and additional mathematics.

The percentage has fallen from abogaut 19% back in 2019.

“This is alarming. We need more students to take pure sciences if we want to create more scientists, data analysts and researchers for the future.

Noraini calls for a complete revamp in the national education system, whereby “STEM culture” is fostered among children from a very young age.

“My team and I have proposed the “cradle-to-career” model which instils the interest for STEM from nurseries and preschool to tertiary education.

“It also needs formal and informal support, whereby informal refers to family, peers and community to foster the interest in STEM.

“For this to happen, we need the effort of various ministries and not just the Education Ministry,” she says.

It is high time, according to Noraini, to set up a department for STEM directly under the Prime Minister’s Department to coordinate the joint-efforts across ministries.As the country works towards improving STEM’s acceptance, Agmo’s Tan says Malaysia must put more emphasis on R&D efforts in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, extended reality and cloud computing, among others.

“We must encourage the establishment of R&D centres by high-tech companies through attractive incentives,” he adds.

Looking ahead, the government has a lot of issues on its plate to address.

To reboot the economy, it is not only about spending more money on R&D.

More importantly, every ringgit invested must be spent efficiently in high-growth research areas that will yield strong ROIs.

Source link

Related posts:

Malaysia's education policy must champion Meritocracy instead of Mediocrity system

Let’s talk economy – the sequel of education

The pump-prime our financial situation, we need a massive investment to revamp and rebuild our education 
  

Sunday, August 20, 2023

Recession unlikely for global economy but challenges linger on

 

THE global macroeconomic picture is still more sluggish than investors would have liked, particularly when viewed from the gross domestic product (GDP) growth perspective for the first half of 2023 (1H23), although it remains a stretch to say the world is heading for a recession.

A quick glance across the Causeway to Singapore sees the city-state registering a 0.5% yearon-year (y-o-y) growth rate for the second quarter of the year (2Q23), extending marginally from the 0.4% expansion it charted for the preceding quarter.

Elsewhere, such as in major markets like the United States, China and the eurozone, economists are of the opinion that growth has been sturdy during 1H23 but stiff hurdles still remain on the horizon.

While acknowledging that global GDP growth has been slower so far in 2023 due to several familiar factors such as higher interest rates and elevated cost pressures, newly appointed Bank Negara governor Datuk Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour is also not expecting the global economy to slip into recession.

He says resilient domestic demand in advanced economies is providing sufficient support, while also anticipating worldwide trade to improve towards the end of 2023.

Most notably, he perceives China’s slower-than-expected recovery to have limited impact on Malaysia’s own economic expansion and improvement.

“Malaysia’s economy is well diversified in terms of products, services and trade partners, which would cushion the Chinese impact,” says Abdul Rasheed.

According to Bernard Aw, chief economist at Singapore’s Coface Services South Asia-pacific Pte Ltd, although the global economy has been resilient year-to-date, growth outlook in the second half remains challenging, not the least from increasing signals of weakening Chinese economic activity.

Forecasting global GDP expansion to be at 2.2% y-o-y for 2023, and anticipating a similar growth rate of 2.3% growth for next year, he says: “We expect Asean GDP growth (2023: 4.3%; 2024: 4.6%) to be generally faster than advanced economies – at 4.3% and 4.6% for 2023 and 2024 respectively – as tourism recovery and domestic demand drives economic activity.”

Continuing subdued external demand for the region would imply that domestic demand has to continue to partially offset some of the slack, Aw, tells Starbizweek.

“However, the challenging economic environment worldwide, relatively high inflation and interest rates means that even growth in domestic consumption and investment may fall short of expectations,” Aw opines.

Commenting on the overall global interest rate environment, he believes that the trend of disinflation would continue into 2H23, mainly driven by lower energy prices, coupled with China’s deflation having fed into lower export prices, which has also moderated global price pressures.

On the flipside, Aw thinks underlying inflation will remain fairly sticky, despite not being severe enough necessarily for central banks to revert to hiking rates.

“Having said that, they will likely maintain the current restrictive interest rates for a longer-than-expected period,” he says.

Earlier in July, it was reported that the United States economy had grown 2.4% y-o-y in 2Q23, up from the 2% it posted for the first three months of the year and bringing 1H23 GDP to a commendable 2.2%.

“The improved expansion rate had been driven by consumer spending, on top of increases in non-residential fixed investment, government spending and inventory growth.

At the same time, China had registered a 6.3% 2Q23 y-o-y GDP growth rate, which was also an improvement from the 4.5% charted in the previous quarter.

The acceleration however was slower than the expected 7.3% forecast by economists on a Reuters poll, dragged back by tepid demand and sinking property prices which has sapped consumer confidence.

On the same note, chief executive of Centre for Market Education Carmelo Ferlito feels that China’s post “zero-covid” recovery has been fragile since the beginning.

“The economy is not an engine to be switched on and off, but rather it is a living emergent order.

“As such, China is paying the price to a degree with its severe, nation-wide lockdowns while it was implementing the zero-covid policy,” he says.

The decelerating growth in China, says Ferlito, is evidenced by the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cutting a range of key interest rates on Tuesday, which is seen as an emergency move to reignite growth after new data showed the economy has decelerated further last month.

With Chinese officials from its National Bureau of Statistics also suspending reports on youth unemployment, he says the move would deprive investors, economists and businesses of another key data point on the declining health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Divulging more numbers, Ferlito says the twin moves of cutting rates and holding back unemployment data from the Chinese government has coincided with new data showing a slowdown in spending growth by consumers and businesses.

“Concurrently, factory output grew much less than expected, adding to a recent raft of worrying signals. For the first time since February, China’s headline measure of unemployment rose, climbing to 5.3%.

“The jobless rate for people ages 16 to 24, meanwhile, had marched steadily higher for six consecutive months to hit a series of record highs, culminating in a reading of 21.3% in June,” he says.

Ferlito says an economic trichotomy is emerging on the global scene, before adding: “The United States is still fighting inflation, but countries like Germany and Holland are starting to experience technical recession, while China is facing challenges of its own.

“It is that post-lockdown crisis that the CME predicted two years ago.”

Echoing Bank Negara governor Abdul Rasheed, he re-emphasises that it is important to look beyond GDP figures, making his case that if the GDP of a country declines because of a cut in impractical government spending, that would be positive for a country.

Conversely, he argues if GDP growth were to accelerate due to an increase in spending financed by debt, it ultimately would be a bane to the government’s coffers and the national economy.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting a 3% GDP global growth rate for this year and the next, receding from the 3.5% achieved in 2022.

It says the rise in central bank policy rates to stave off inflation has continued to weigh on economic activity, but the good news is that global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7% last year to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024.

“The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling stand-off and strong action by authorities to contain turbulence in the US and Swiss banking earlier this year reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil. This moderated adverse risks to the outlook,” the IMF says.

However, it cautions that the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside, as inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an escalation of the Russia-ukraine conflict.

Moreover, the IMF warns that China’s recovery could slow further, partly due to unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers.

On the upside, inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could again prove more resilient

 Related posts:



Sunday, August 6, 2023

Is progressive wage model the solution?

 



Malaysia is set to announce a progressive wage model. What will this mean for the future of employee wages in the country?

Dissecting the practicality of the progressive wage model and its potential impact on Malaysian's welfare


AS the Unity Government continues apace on its attempt to uplift the livelihood of Malaysians, as announced at the launch of the Madani Economy by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim last week, the debate on the best wage structure for the country rages on.

Especially pertinent after a number of announcements by Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli regarding the government’s consideration and proposed implementation of the Progressive Wage Model (PWM), which could be modelled after neighbouring Singapore’s version, wage experts and economists are offering varying opinions on the subject.

To be clear, Singapore unveiled its own PWM since 2012, and according to its National Trades Union Congress, the PWM is based on the key objectives of helping Singaporean workers climb the four ladders of skills upgrading, productivity improvement, career advancement and wage progression, on top of helping companies make better use of and retain their workforce.

Notably, the island nation does not have an official blanket minimum wage structure, except for two sectors, namely for cleaners, where the minimum wage is S$1,000 (RM3,390) per month; and for security guards, who are required by law to be paid S$1,100 (RM3,729) monthly.

However, its Manpower Ministry has outlined the progressive wages (PWS) Singaporean workers are to be paid in a number of sectors, including the landscaping, food services and retail industries.

For example, a local Singaporean working as a cashier has to be paid a minimum of S$1,850 (RM6,277) monthly from Sept 1, 2022, which would increase to S$1,975 (RM6,701) from Sept 1 this year; while a landscape worker would be required to be paid S$1,650 (RM5,599) per month.

Singapore also has a Local Qualifying Salary (LQS) – S$1,400 (RM4,746) – which its Manpower Ministry describes as a determinant for the number of local employees who can be used to calculate a firm’s work permit and S Pass quota entitlement.

Since September last year, firms employing foreign workers who require work permits, S Passes or employment pass holders are mandated to pay PW salaries to local workers covered by the relevant Sectoral or Occupational PWS in the aforementioned cleaning, security, landscape maintenance, and retail sectors as well as in-house workers covered by the PWM, while also remunerating at least the LQS to all other local workers.

Can the PWM be successful here? 

The discussion naturally hinges on whether what Singapore is doing can be implemented here, and what are the benefits of a blanket minimum wage structure as compared to a PWM.

Aside from that, the (business) man on the street could also be concerned as to whether the government has set its sights on making the PWM a mandatory initiative, or would this be optional, perhaps at its nascent stage at least.

As argued by Socio-economic Research Centre (SERC) executive director and economist Lee Heng Guie, the PWM offers more of a winwin solution for both employees and employers, if compared to a blanket minimum wage structure.

By looking deeper into the numbers since Malaysia’s Minimum Wage Order (MWO) was first enforced in 2013, he observes that 2022 marks the fifth time of implementation as the minimum wage rate was reviewed at least once every two years.

“The new minimum wage of RM1,500 per month was fully enforced on July 1, an increase of between 25% and 36.3% compared to the RM1,100 to RM1,200 monthly wage in 2019.

“Over the period from 2013 to 2023, minimum wage has increased by 5.8% per annum from RM900 per month for Peninsular Malaysia and 6.5% per annum from RM800 per month for Sabah and Sarawak on Jan 1, 2013, respectively. However, overall labour productivity increased by only 2.3% per annum for the same period,” he reveals.

As such, Lee says the government is looking into the appropriateness of other wage models to benefit both employees and employers, and he believes the PWM may be an appropriate and feasible substitute wage model to improve the income of low-skilled workers to have a living wage.

Theoretically, a living wage differs from a minimum wage because the former refers not just to the existence of a minimum level of remuneration, but also to a minimum acceptable standard of living, according to the International Labour Organisation.

Therefore, living wage rates are usually higher than the minimum wage rate, especially when the latter has been less frequently updated in line with living cost increases.

While concurring that employees should be compensated according to their skillset, efficiency and education levels, Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed says the issue of increasing wages and productivity would be best based on a market-driven approach.

He tells Starbizweek this would be best achieved if all stakeholders were to get involved to enhance workers’ productivity to ultimately buttress economic outcomes at the macro level.

“Workers’ efficiency, solid skills and education are major variables in influencing economic growth. In turn, economic expansion and innovation have a direct correlation with strong deliverable outcomes benefiting the masses in improving their living standards and purchasing power,” he points out.

Citing the late Gary Becker, former professor at the University of Chicago Booth School and Nobel Laureate, he says Becker believed that investment in an individual’s education and training is like a business investing into equipment, being the epitome of applying economic analysis to human behaviour.

In addition, he says higher wages allow firms to attract and retain better employees – assuming competitors don’t follow suit and raise their wages as well.

“But there is an important – and often overlooked – second effect. Paying wages that are above the market rate, known within economics as efficiency wages, can also be an important motivating force for a company’s existing employee base.

“The intuition is straightforward: higher wages make a job more desirable. This leads to a larger applicant pool waiting to take over when openings occur and makes it easier to replace another employee. Malaysian companies can follow the similar footprints to achieve desirable outcomes,” says Shan.

Handling a chronic situation

While one can understand the perspective of the SERC when it compares the PWM with the MWO, there are parties who are arguing for the benefits of the MWO before embarking on any “progressive” initiatives.

Even Rafizi has reiterated this week that it is his “job”, through government policy, to prioritise increasing the wages of Malaysians, for them to better cope with rising living expenses.

He emphasised that instead of embarking on new billion-ringgit projects, the unity government has fixed its focus on improving the incomes of Malaysians, echoing Anwar’s warning that the country has been caught in a vicious cycle of high costs, low wages and low profits.

In fact, the argument can be made by looking at Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita over the past 50 years, especially against economies that were considered inferior to it but have since made significant progress, advancing beyond Malaysia’s growth. Two good examples of this, of course, are Singapore itself and South Korea.

For starters, the GDP per capita breaks down a country’s economic output per person, calculated by dividing the GDP of a nation by its population. It is a metric often used by economists to analyse the overall prosperity of a country based on its economic growth.

In an article for Taiwan’s The New Lens, Singaporean writer Roy Ngerng observes: “Up until the late-1970s, Malaysia’s total wages per capita were actually higher than South Korea, and were in fact over three times higher in the early-1970s.

“Today, however, the tables have turned and South Korea’s total wages per capita are about four times higher than Malaysia. The total wages per capita of Czechia and Estonia were also similar to Malaysia’s at one point, but have grown to be about 3.5 times that of Malaysia, while Poland is twice as high.”

On top of that, up until the mid 1980s, Malaysia’s GDP per capita – in US dollar terms – was higher or on par with South Korea, while in the early-1990s, Malaysia’s GDP per capita was also similar to that of the Eastern European countries like Czechia, Estonia and Poland.

“In other words, Malaysia’s economy used to be larger than those countries. However, while the economies of those countries have since expanded rapidly, Malaysia’s GDP per capita stagnated in contrast. Today, South Korea’s economy has grown to three times larger than Malaysia,” says Ngerng.

He says the reason is because Malaysia’s wages have stagnated relative to these other countries, and consequently it has hurt the growth of domestic consumption.

In contrast to many economists, Ngerng believes it is not necessary at this point in time for Malaysia to adopt Singapore’s PWM, but rather it should focus on increasing minimum wage more rapidly.

Wages at other levels in Malaysia are not growing faster because Malaysia’s minimum wage is rising too slowly, and with wage increase at other levels being dependent on the growth rate of minimum wage, the stagnant minimum wage therefore prevents wages from rising across the board.

As a result of Malaysia’s wages stagnating, this has resulted in its economy stagnating as well, he says.

A cursory look at the GDP per capita numbers taken in December 2022 on CEIC Data sees Malaysia posting a figure of US$12,472 (RM56,828). In comparison, Singapore is way ahead at US$82,794 (RM377,000), with South Korea also almost three times ahead of Malaysia at US$32,236 (RM146,883).

Notably, Czechia registered a GDP per capita of US$27,566 (RM126,000), while Estonia and Poland both posted respective figures of US$28,568 (RM130.165) and US$18,222 (RM83,000).

Is a Pwm-tiered subsidy the way to begin?

Perhaps a move that could also be given some thought would be to make the PWM optional to businesses, with the government at the ready-to-subsidise progressive and productivity-linked wage increases, tied in with certain key performance indicators that could be seen to contribute to the country’s GDP growth, of course.

Again, Singapore has put in place a similar structure, a fiveyear plan to subsidise wage increases, so as to provide support for businesses to pay higher wages.

Malaysia could copy such a programme where the government subsidies wage increases but on an annually decreasing scale, so that as companies grow more financially sound, they would be taken off the subsidy programme after a number of years to manage their own wage growth measures.

Sunway University professor of economics Dr Yeah Kim Leng is striking a more balanced view when he says the PWM is definitely worth experimenting here – given the decades-old problem of depressed skilled and unskilled wages, with the exception of chief executives and senior management.

“To be sustainable, wages need to be linked to increases in efficiency, productivity and competitiveness.

“Where there are wage rigidities and labour market failures due to weak bargaining power of employees, inefficient labour market information systems and lack of skills recognition and certification, the government has strong grounds to adopt more interventionist policies such as minimum wage regulations and progressive wage models,” he tells Starbizweek.

Suggesting a way for implementation, Yeah says the government would need to bring industry players together with workers’ unions or representatives to determine basic wages, skills grading or levels and wage ranges for each skill level.

The wage ladders for each industry will enable employees to upgrade their skills and earn correspondingly higher wages along with greater responsibilities, says Yeah, with the other challenge being to link higher skills with higher productivity that enables the company to be more productive and generate better profits for the sustainability of wage growth.

He opines: “A minimum wage will ensure that no worker is paid below a decent living wage thereby enabling the country to eradicate hardcore poverty, while a progressive wage model has the advantage of ensuring that workers are paid productivity-linked wages and to earn progressively higher wages that commensurate with ‘middle-class’ status.

“A well-designed PWM will contribute eventually towards achieving what we see in advanced economies where blue collar workers earn as much or higher than white collar workers.”

Cultural attitudes: A road block to growth?

However, there also exists the viewpoint where Malaysians on average are culturally less inclined to acquire knowledge and new skills or upgrade themselves, something perhaps anyone with recruiting experience would understand well.

If such is the case, how would the government go about justifying increasing the minimum wage more quickly in this catch22 situation?

This has led Joey Gan, market lead for Singapore-based regional corporate consultancy firm Precious Communications Pte Ltd, to remark that even for the citystate, one of the primary challenges in implementing PWM is that many training programmes require a certain level of literacy, basic education, or even certifications, but unfortunately, a significant proportion of workers do not meet these requirements.

“I believe Malaysia may also face a similar challenge, on top of the obvious cost factor for many companies. Moreover, the readiness of workers to upskill and adapt to new opportunities is also a key obstacle.

“Personal development through training largely depends on an individual’s internal motivation. Therefore, for this initiative to succeed, employees would need to undergo a radical change in attitude towards training for upward social mobility,” she says.

While a beneficial step would be to prioritise employees’ welfare by implementing some form of PWM, she believes that replicating Singapore’s approach might not be feasible without comparable government incentives – such as subsidies for training and wage increments – especially for Malaysian businesses already burdened with rising operational costs.

Ergo, Gan says employers might prefer the reverse income tax model, while employees may appreciate a reasonable wage increase that keeps pace with inflation.

Resonating with SERC’S Lee, she notes: “The PWM is a more holistic approach to help our low-wage earners enhance their skills and, in turn, their productivity, so increased wages are the ultimate result of this progression.

“While PWM is not without its challenges, it offers employers better productivity from their workforce, considering the cost, and employees benefit from developing and evolving skill sets over time. In the end, it’s a win-win situation where both employers and employees gain from this approach.”

More crucially, however, she points out that the high productivity and standards in Singapore are a result of both the young and the elderly realising that there is no guaranteed help or support as they age.

This awareness, says Gan, is the major reason that has motivated Singaporeans to work harder and longer to secure a better future, despite the role that the PWM may have played.

“It is essential for our entire workforce, regardless of our wage band, to embrace a growth mindset. Increasing wages goes hand in hand with continuous learning, skill development and improvement.

“To facilitate this growth, it is essential for the government and companies to collaborate and propose people-centric policies that support the development of a highly skilled workforce,” she says.

The Star - StarBiz
By keith Hiew keith.hsk@thestar.com.my

Related Stories

Minimum wage still below what’s needed for basic necessities


WHILE many countries globally have embraced a minimum wage policy as a fundamental labour regulation, Malaysia joined this trend comparatively later. For instance, Australia has been implementing a minimum wage policy since as far back...

No shortcuts


WITH electronic trading providing access to global markets through apps on smartphones, the local stock market is in a fight for eyeballs and investors. Hence, the government and regulators are planning a host of measures to bring more...

Don’t use minimum wage as benchmark for starting pay of fresh grads — Minister


PUTRAJAYA: The minimum wage of RM1,500 should not be set as a reference or benchmark by employers to pay the salary of fresh graduates, said Economy Ministry Rafizi Ramli. The concept of minimum is that if the minimum wage exists, then the...

Related posts:


Friday, August 4, 2023

Malaysia needs better infrastruchure

 


Matsuda said one way Malaysia can become more resilient in times of trouble is to ensure equal basic infrastructure for all, which includes efficiency in government assistance as well as making information more accessible.


“There is definitely room for improvement in terms of transparency and the dissemination of cash transfers. The cash transfers were a good idea but leakages and wastage did take place,”

- Yasuhiko Matsuda


Digital divide results in poor people having no access to government assistance during Covid-19

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia needs a stronger infrastructure in place in order to mitigate any future crises that may arise and impacting its people and economy, says World Bank country manager for Malaysia, Yasuhiko Matsuda.

Matsuda said while the majority of people suffered during the Covid-19 pandemic, smaller businesses and vulnerable households were impacted more, partly because they had little or no access to government assistance.

“One main reason was because of the digital divide. Poorer people had no Internet and so they didn’t have the information they needed to apply for these forms of assistance,” he said.

He was speaking to reporters during the “Building Malaysia’s Resilience, Lessons from Covid-19 Economic Impact and Policy Responses” conference by the World Bank Group yesterday.

Although nearly 80% of low-income households (monthly earnings of RM2,000 and below) received government assistance, about one-fourth of them did not have access to cash assistance.

More than one-third of households earning more than RM10,000 received the cash assistance.

According to Matsuda, one way Malaysia can become more resilient in times of trouble is to ensure equal basic infrastructure for all, which includes efficiency in government assistance as well as making information more accessible.

“There is definitely room for improvement in terms of transparency and the dissemination of cash transfers. The cash transfers were a good idea but leakages and wastage did take place,” he said.

Matsuda said one challenge that arose in terms of the cash assistance benefit was that while the government managed to cover a somewhat large population, it only managed to give each family a small amount.

He said despite the good intentions, the impact was rendered limited and this showed in the surveys done post-pandemic.

“Moving forward, the government can look at maybe a lesser number of families but provide them with a higher amount of assistance so it is more impactful,” he said.

For the middle class, the government can look into areas of employment or provide people with a mix of different things to try out, especially in this era of digitilisation, he said.

He added that the Madani Economy framework announced this year by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim covers these aspects as the government pledges to work towards realising them.

“A strong economy must go alongside a strong fiscal capacity. Now the key will be how it is implemented,” he noted.

Similarly, World Bank senior economist Ririn Purnamasari said the reality of the “caring effect” of the pandemic recorded some struggling to catch up despite Malaysia’s economy being revived.

“We risk widening the equality gap now and in the future, and as we’ve seen in the report, some sold their assets as a coping method which were meant to generate income,” she said.

The other strategies that could be scarring for people included decreasing essential food expenditure, borrowing from friends and family, and taking children out of school.

While not so evident in Malaysia, it was recorded in countries like Cambodia and the Philippines.

Additionally, Purnamasari said Malaysia needs to be aware of its fiscal capacity and resources, and how it can best help those that need it, while strengthening the economy together.

On top of that, the government should continue collaborating with other relevant bodies to offer labour market programmes for the community.

“One way we will see people moving forward is by upskilling and reskilling them. This will empower them and give them the ability to participate in different fields so it becomes more sustainable for them,” Purnamasari said.

Currently, Malaysia’s labour market is relatively underdeveloped with limited accessibility for workers in the informal sector.

“Integration of programmes across ministries and agencies and increased shock responsiveness can strengthen labour market policies.

“Hiring incentives should be balanced with well-designed training programmes to address skills mismatches,” she said.

Meanwhile, World Bank Group in its latest report noted that Malaysia emerged as a country with strong resilience and plenty of potential for recovery from the pandemic.

The six other countries surveyed for this report included Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Cambodia and the Philippines.

Notably, Malaysia’s diversified exports and strong trade sector contributed to its economic resilience during the pandemic-induced recession.

“Malaysia’s favourable business environment, ranked highest among the six countries studied according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index, enabled Malaysian firms to effectively navigate disruptions caused by the pandemic and capitalise on opportunities during the recovery,” the report said.

Among the key takeaways from the report was that the younger, less-educated and informal workers were more negatively affected than the white-collared professionals.

“Self-employed workers or those working for family businesses were more likely than wage workers to experience work stoppages and income loss.

“However, the survey showed businesses that were shedding workers became less productive,” the report said.

Women were also reportedly more susceptible to losing their jobs than men, especially those with a lower income, lower education and who were younger.

The report also showed that digitilisation became the go-to once the pandemic hit and movements were heavily restricted.

“The acceleration of technology adoption created an opportunity for firms and workers to be more productive.

“However, the digital divide was apparent in poorer regions with a lower share of workers working from home,” it said.

Lastly, the report said Malaysia had relied heavily on support to businesses in the form of liquidity, credit and lending below-the-line measures as opposed to providing direct support to households.

While countries like Cambodia, Mongolia and Indonesia recorded higher support for households, Malaysia saw a more thorough level of support for businesses.

“The support to businesses appeared to be more biased towards more productive and larger firms. While the support to households was pro-poor, it was not as responsive to shocks,” it said.

Source link


Related news:



Second TSMC plant to get government funding
CORPORATE NEWS 20h ago

Second TSMC plant to get government funding


Malaysia in a good position to make golden digital era a reality
TECHNOLOGY9h ago

Malaysia in a good position to make golden digital era a reality



Related posts:


  • Lee said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024. ...

New Straits Times
https://www.nst.com.my › news › nation › 2022/01